Forecast record
What we forecast, and what happened
Every analysis ends with checkable statements: probability, deadline, criterion. Here they are scored, misses first.
Mean Brier
—
(p − outcome)², averaged. 0 = perfect. 0.25 = “always 50 %”. 1 = confidently wrong.
No forecast has reached its deadline yet. The first expires on 2026-10-01.
40 open
Calibration
How often the things we called “likely” happened. A band shows a percentage only from 5.
| we said | n | happened |
|---|---|---|
| 0–20 % | 0 | too few |
| 20–40 % | 0 | too few |
| 40–60 % | 0 | too few |
| 60–80 % | 0 | too few |
| 80–100 % | 0 | too few |
Open, by deadline
Votul de învestitură asupra Guvernului Mureșan va avea loc înainte de publicarea raportului S&P din 2 octombrie.
we said 45 % (even chance) · by 2026-10-01 · the analysis
S&P va menține ratingul suveran al României la BBB- la evaluarea programată pentru 2 octombrie 2026.
we said 60 % (more likely than not) · by 2026-10-09 · the analysis
Siegfried Mureșan va cere votul de încredere al Parlamentului, fără să-și depună mandatul înainte.
we said 70 % (likely) · by 2026-10-15 · the analysis
Sorin Grindeanu va fi desemnat candidat la funcția de prim-ministru.
we said 45 % (even chance) · by 2026-10-31 · the analysis
Un guvern cu puteri depline va fi învestit de Parlament.
we said 60 % (more likely than not) · by 2026-10-31 · the analysis
Guvernul Mureșan va fi învestit de Parlament.
we said 20 % (unlikely) · by 2026-10-31 · the analysis
Parlamentul va respinge în plen o a doua solicitare de învestitură din criza începută la 5 mai 2026.
we said 45 % (even chance) · by 2026-10-31 · the analysis
The Silver Bulletin presidential approval average shows the president below 40% approve on 2 November 2026.
we said 85 % (very likely) · by 2026-11-03 · the analysis
The US-China tariff truce is extended or renewed beyond 10 November 2026.
we said 75 % (likely) · by 2026-11-15 · the analysis
Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives at the 3 November 2026 election.
we said 87 % (very likely) · by 2026-11-30 · the analysis
The FOMC raises the federal funds target range again at its 27-28 October or 8-9 December 2026 meeting.
we said 60 % (more likely than not) · by 2026-12-09 · the analysis
Ariane 6 va efectua cel mult 8 lansari in anul calendaristic 2026.
we said 85 % () · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
NavIC va ramane sub 4 sateliti PNT operationali.
we said 85 % () · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Starlink va anunta public cel putin 14 milioane de abonati.
we said 70 % () · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Grupurile parlamentare PNL vor vota pentru învestirea unui guvern care include miniștri PSD.
we said 25 % (unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Parlamentul va fi dizolvat și vor fi convocate alegeri anticipate.
we said 10 % (very unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Cursul de referință al Băncii Naționale pentru euro va depăși 5,30 lei cel puțin într-o zi.
we said 30 % (unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Indicele BET va închide anul sub 36.487,21 puncte, maximul atins pe 19 august 2026.
we said 70 % (likely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Sorin Grindeanu va fi prim-ministru învestit.
we said 35 % (less likely than not) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Alexandru Nazare va fi desemnat candidat la funcția de prim-ministru.
we said 12 % (very unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Parlamentul va fi dizolvat.
we said 12 % (very unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Indicele BET va închide anul sub 36.487,21 puncte, maximul atins pe 19 august 2026.
we said 80 % (very likely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Cursul de referință al Băncii Naționale pentru euro va depăși 5,30 lei cel puțin într-o zi.
we said 30 % (unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Sorin Grindeanu va fi desemnat candidat la funcția de prim-ministru.
we said 25 % (unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
Un guvern cu puteri depline, indiferent de premier, va fi învestit de Parlament.
we said 55 % (more likely than not) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
The site of the permanent US Army base in Poland is officially named.
we said 65 % (more likely than not) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
The United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire or agreement (a signed text or a White House-announced halt to hostilities lasting at least 30 days).
we said 46 % (even chance) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
The United States conducts a major new strike campaign on Iranian territory (a named operation, or strikes on at least three sites within one week).
we said 29 % (unlikely) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
The Department of Defense formally announces a reduction of at least 25,000 US troops in Europe.
we said 34 % (less likely than not) · by 2026-12-31 · the analysis
The 50% tariff on Canadian vehicles and parts announced on 24 August 2026 is in force at 50% on 1 January 2027, without delay, reduction or replacement by a deal.
we said 34 % (less likely than not) · by 2027-01-02 · the analysis
Democrats win control of the Senate (at least 50 seats plus the vice-president, or 51).
we said 55 % (more likely than not) · by 2027-01-15 · the analysis
Cel puțin una dintre cele trei agenții readuce perspectiva României de la negativă la stabilă.
we said 25 % (unlikely) · by 2027-03-31 · the analysis
România va păstra ratingul suveran în categoria recomandată investițiilor la toate cele trei mari agenții.
we said 70 % (likely) · by 2027-03-31 · the analysis
Xona Space Systems va avea cel putin 6 sateliti Pulsar pe orbita.
we said 70 % () · by 2027-06-30 · the analysis
Galileo va avea cel putin 30 de sateliti marcati 'usable' simultan.
we said 70 % () · by 2027-06-30 · the analysis
Romania nu va semna contractul de achizitie SSMT (satelit militar GEO).
we said 65 % () · by 2027-06-30 · the analysis
Buletinul de siguranta EASA privind interferenta GNSS va ramane activ pentru regiunea Marii Negre.
we said 90 % () · by 2027-12-31 · the analysis
Amazon Leo va avea sub 1.000 de sateliti pe orbita.
we said 70 % () · by 2027-12-31 · the analysis
Nu va fi anuntat public niciun angajament financiar romanesc pentru IRIS2.
we said 65 % () · by 2027-12-31 · the analysis
IRIS2 nu va avea niciun satelit operational pe orbita.
we said 90 % () · by 2028-12-31 · the analysis
2026-09-21