Richards J. Heuer Jr.

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1. 01

   Analysis is a mental process that runs through simplified models of reality; structure exists to bring the model into the open, where it can be checked.

   Psychology of Intelligence Analysis · 1999

   You cannot see the lens you look through until you take it off and put it on the table.

   Heuer starts from Herbert Simon's idea of bounded rationality: the mind cannot take in the world's complexity directly, so it builds a simplified model and behaves rationally only inside it. For an analyst, that model — Heuer also calls it a mind-set — is the lens through which every new report is read. It is unavoidable and useful, since without it no information would make sense. The problem, Heuer says, is that such a model is quick to form but resistant to change, and the analyst does not see it, because he is looking through it. The practical steps follow. Before writing a judgement, note what you already believe and why; list the alternative explanations; ask which evidence would make you change your mind. Structure — a list, a matrix, a written hypothesis — does not make you cleverer, but it moves your thinking onto paper, where others can challenge it. It pays most on high-stakes issues with ambiguous information. The typical trap is believing that experience exempts you: Heuer warns that the experienced specialist may be among the last to see what is really happening when events take an unexpected turn.

   “Intelligence analysts should be self-conscious about their reasoning process. They should think about how they make judgments and reach conclusions, not just about the judgments and conclusions themselves.”

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