olivLaw · European equity research
Ascelia Pharma AB ACE.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0010573113 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Ascelia Pharma develops Orviglance, a manganese-based MRI contrast agent for liver imaging in patients with severely reduced kidney function, for whom gadolinium-based agents are unsuitable or cannot be given. The company submitted its NDA to the FDA in September 2025, with a decision expected in July 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ascelia Pharma AB (ACE.ST) stock was 0.51 SEK (−5.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 58.2 m SEK, beta 0.46, 52-week range 0.48–3.43 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.38 – 0.79
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 70.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.63 / 1.92
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −37.7% | −1.5% | −36.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.7% | −5.3% | −6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −82.5% | +4.7% | −87.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −84.1% | +6.0% | −90.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −83.4% | +8.2% | −91.6 pp | −6.7% |
| 3 years | −82.8% | +47.2% | −130.0 pp | +12.8% |
| 5 years | −98.1% | +41.8% | −139.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -109.3 m | -80.0 m | -76.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -3.24 | -1.48 | -0.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -126.8 m | -62.8 m | -72.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 49.9 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 0 SEK
- Net debt
- -49.9 m SEK
- Equity
- 99.5 m SEK
- Total assets
- 111.9 m SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 4.35x
- ROE
- -85.5%
- ROA
- -60.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 81.3 m | 50.8 m | 56.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | -110.9 m | -67.8 m | -74.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 2.4 m | 13.9 m | 5.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -109.6 m | -80.1 m | -76.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -319.0 k | -94.0 k | -468.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -109.3 m | -80.0 m | -76.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.24 | -1.48 | -0.67 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 21.9 m | 75.3 m | 49.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 28.9 m | 83.7 m | 53.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 89.0 k | 15.0 k | 52.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 57.1 m | 57.1 m | 57.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 87.1 m | 140.9 m | 111.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 25.2 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 12.6 m | 62.0 m | 12.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 12.7 m | 62.0 m | 12.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 74.3 m | 78.9 m | 99.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 33.7 m | 54.1 m | 113.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -126.8 m | -62.8 m | -72.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 0 | 0 | 57.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -126.8 m ≈ | -62.8 m ≈ | -72.3 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 47.0 k | 0 | -57.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -936.0 k | 115.2 m | 48.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 58.2 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
29% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -159.1% | 0 (vs peers) | 36% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -13.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -124.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Ascelia Pharma AB (ACE.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 0 SEK in 2025; ROE -85.5%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 4.4x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -159.1%
- Interest coverage: -13.5x
- FCF yield: -124.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 224.5 bn | 27.1 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +22% / +39% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 144.0 bn | 15.3 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +13% / +83% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.3 bn | 70.7 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +26% / +5% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 46.7 bn | 13.7 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −32% / −15% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 39.4 bn | 54.2 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +8% / +44% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 31.1 bn | 25.3 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +90% / +131% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.5 bn | 60.0 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 23.1 bn | 34.4 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +12% / +22% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.8 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +21% / +21% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 20.0 bn | 29.6 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +15% / +122% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 17.9 bn | 33.0 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +6% / +16% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 17.1 bn | 21.1 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +36% / +230% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.8 bn | 18.5 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +3% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 13.9 bn | 16.8 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −34% / −45% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.8 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −17% / +51% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.4 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.3 bn | 36.8 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +53% / +40% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 9.9 bn | 43.5 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +7% / unavailable |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.1 bn | 9.3 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +38% / +112% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.8 bn | 31.1 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +21% / +13% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.4 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +2% / +26% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.6 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −37% / −79% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 30.7 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −20% / +110% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 52.5 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −7% / +90% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +14% / −52% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ACE.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ascelia Pharma develops Orviglance, a manganese-based MRI contrast agent for liver imaging in patients with severely reduced kidney function, for whom gadolinium-based agents are unsuitable or cannot be given. The company submitted its NDA to the FDA in September 2025, with a decision expected in July 2026 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The product has a mechanism different from gadolinium agents and has shown consistent safety and efficacy data across nine clinical studies 1.
- The phase 3 SPARKLE study met its primary endpoint, and the NDA was submitted and accepted for review by the FDA 1.
- Market research with physicians across several specialties provides a basis for the launch strategy 1.
Weaknesses
- The company depends on a single late-stage product, so a failure in the authorization process would have a major impact 1.
- The company does not yet have its own sales force and depends on partners for launch 1.
- Reader variability was an issue in the first evaluation of the phase 3 study, which required a new reading 1.
Opportunities
- If approved, the product could become a reference liver contrast agent for patients with severely reduced kidney function 1.
- Extension to other indications, such as biliary imaging, is mentioned as a possible direction but is not confirmed 1.
- Awareness of gadolinium risks could accelerate adoption of a gadolinium-free alternative 1.
Risks
- FDA decisionhigh
The FDA authorization process may have outcomes different from expectations, and the decision is scheduled for July 2026 1.
- Single-product dependencehigh
The company's activity is concentrated on Orviglance, so technical, clinical or regulatory problems would have a broad effect 1.
- Partner-led launchmedium
Commercial success depends on concluding and performing well under partner agreements, which are not yet final 1.
- Access and pricemedium
Payers may request additional evidence, and the final price depends on phase 3 data and reimbursement conditions 1.
- Physician adoptionmedium
The current preference for unenhanced or reduced-dose MRI could limit how fast the product is adopted 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the product is approved, Ascelia could hold an important place in a medical niche with unmet need and limited alternatives 1.
- Data from nine studies and the positive phase 3 results give a solid basis for the authorization application 1.
- The interest shown by physicians in the market research suggests potential demand if the product becomes available 1.
What would break the thesis
- If authorization is delayed or refused, the company could go without revenue from its main product for a long period 1.
- The estimated 800 MUSD market is the company's own projection, and actual adoption could be smaller if physicians continue to prefer unenhanced MRI 1.
- Reliance on partners for launch could reduce the company's control over sales and commercial terms 1.
What to watch
- FDA decision on the Orviglance NDAJuly 2026
- Conclusion of commercialization partner agreements2026
- Access and reimbursement terms discussed with payers2026
- Next annual report with launch updatesnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ascelia Pharma AB is a pharmaceutical company developing Orviglance, a liver MRI contrast agent based on manganese rather than gadolinium 1. The product targets patients with stage 4 or 5 chronic kidney disease or acute kidney injury, where gadolinium agents may be medically inappropriate 1. The company completed its clinical program with nine studies and submitted its NDA to the FDA 1.
The commercial strategy involves launching through commercialization partners, which allows the company to use existing capacity and keep launch investment lower 1. Ascelia aims to become the standard for liver imaging in patients with reduced kidney function, and success depends on the authorization decision and market access terms 1.
The company based its launch plan on independent market research with more than 250 physicians from radiology, nephrology and oncology, which indicated strong interest in an alternative to gadolinium-based agents 1.
Segments
Orviglance for liver MRI
The core segment covers patients with primary liver cancer or liver metastases and severely reduced kidney function, a group the company describes as about 4 percent of cancer patients undergoing abdominal imaging 1. Orviglance is proposed for visualization of focal liver lesions 1.
Launch through partners
The company intends to launch the product through commercialization partners rather than building a full sales force alone, which could lower launch costs if the agreements materialize 1.
Market context
The company estimates an annual addressable market of 800 MUSD for Orviglance, based on the number of MRI scans performed in the target patients and input from payers, experts and stakeholders 1. The estimate rests on company data and external research, and the final price and access strategy depend on phase 3 data and payer evidence 1. The US market is the main reference, with data on about 100 000 annual abdominal imaging procedures in patients affected by the gadolinium warning 1.
Market research found that 16 percent of surveyed physicians had already encountered a case of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, and many prefer unenhanced MRI or reduced-dose contrast for patients with severely reduced kidney function 1. If this preference translates into adoption, the market could grow as the product becomes available 1.
Trends
- Concern over gadoliniumtailwind
The safety of gadolinium-based contrast agents, including the risk of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, has raised attention among physicians and patients, creating demand for alternatives 1.
- Preference for unenhanced MRImixed
Physicians increasingly prefer unenhanced or reduced-dose MRI for patients with severely reduced kidney function, which could limit adoption of a new agent if the alternative is not clearly advantageous 1.
- Regulatory timelinemixed
The FDA review, with a decision expected in July 2026, could affect the timing of launch and labeling conditions for the product 1.
- Interest in partner-led launchestailwind
Launching drugs through commercialization partners can reduce capital needs for a small company, but depends on partner availability and deal terms 1.
Competitive position
The main competition comes from gadolinium-based contrast agents, which are widely used but associated with risks in patients with reduced kidney function 1. Competition also includes unenhanced MRI, which remains the practical alternative for many physicians 1.
The declared advantage of Orviglance is the absence of gadolinium and a favorable safety profile with low systemic manganese exposure, but a new product must show practical benefits against existing options 1.
- Gadolinium-based contrast agents
The current standard for MRI contrast, widely used but associated with risks in patients with severely reduced kidney function 1.
- Unenhanced MRI
An alternative often used by physicians for patients with reduced kidney function, without the contrast effects of Orviglance 1.
- Reduced-dose contrast MRI
A practical compromise for vulnerable patients that physicians frequently use according to the market research 1.
- Other liver contrast agents
Existing or developing products targeting liver imaging; the source does not detail direct competitors 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ascelia Pharma AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.