olivLaw · European equity research
AkzoNobel N.V. AKZA.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0013267909 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
AkzoNobel is a global manufacturer of paints and coatings, with two main divisions: Decorative Paints and Performance Coatings. The company is in the middle of a transformation: it is restructuring its plants, has sold its Indian assets and is preparing a merger with Axalta that could create a global coatings leader with an enterprise value of 25 billion USD.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AkzoNobel N.V. (AKZA.AS) stock was 62.58 EUR (−0.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.7 bn EUR, P/E 17.0 on diluted EPS of 3.69 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.57%, beta 1.10, 52-week range 47.30–66.44 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 56.58 – 62.54
- above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 10.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 58.71 / 57.01
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.96 / 0.55
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.5% | +0.4% | +6.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.5% | −3.3% | +1.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +22.1% | +4.0% | +18.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.7% | +8.1% | −2.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.7% | +10.7% | +0.0 pp | −0.2% |
| 3 years | −1.7% | +50.1% | −51.8 pp | +5.3% |
| 5 years | −38.1% | +43.6% | −81.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 16.0, median 18.3, max 29.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.7 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +0.4% | −5.2% |
| Net income | 442.0 m | 542.0 m | 635.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +22.6% | +17.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.58 | 3.16 | 3.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +22.5% | +16.8% |
| net % | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.6 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 4.9 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 3.2 bn EUR
- Equity
- 4.8 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 14.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.01x
- Current ratio
- 1.44x
- ROE
- 13.2%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.7 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.4 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 270.0 m | 296.0 m | 274.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.0 bn | 917.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | — | 163.0 m | 248.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 784.0 m | 838.0 m | 998.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 296.0 m | 246.0 m | 326.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 442.0 m | 542.0 m | 635.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.58 | 3.16 | 3.69 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.16 | 2.25 | 2.23 | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.0 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 14.6 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.7 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 170.7 m | 171.0 m | 171.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 673.0 m | — | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Investing cash flow | -144.0 m | -132.0 m | — | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -827.0 m | -684.0 m | — | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 368.0 m | 385.0 m | 382.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | — | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 10.7 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 30.35 – 94.71 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E35.72 – 94.71 (Mid 51.01)16 companies used · median multiple 13.8x · quartiles 9.7x – 25.7xAALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, ARCAD.AS, ASM.AS, ASML.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, ECMPA.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS, HAVAS.AS
- Dividend discount (DDM)30.35 – 41.39 (Mid 35.02)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 9.2% | 65 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.3% | 72 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.7x | 49 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.0x | 52 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.6% | 51 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet51/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality68/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial51/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial52/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 10.2 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -5.2%; net margin 6.3%; ROE 13.8%.
The estimated value range is 33.04–68.05 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.02 EUR, the price of 62.58 EUR leaves a potential of -31.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -45.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 6.3%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| HAVAS.ASHavas N.V. | 1.8 bn | 9.6 | 10.2% | 6.5% | +1.7% | +26% / unavailable |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AKZA.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 33.64 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 59.77 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 90.45 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 26.71 Total return -50% · Per year -21% | 53.95 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 90.45 Total return 57% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 21.21 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 48.69 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 90.45 Total return 65% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 13.49
- Net margin± 9.44
- Annual revenue growth± 8.53
- Annual dilution± 0.79
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AkzoNobel is a global manufacturer of paints and coatings, with two main divisions: Decorative Paints and Performance Coatings. The company is in the middle of a transformation: it is restructuring its plants, has sold its Indian assets and is preparing a merger with Axalta that could create a global coatings leader with an enterprise value of 25 billion USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Differentiated positions in aerospace, powder and marine protective coatings, plus a portfolio of well-recognized brands 1.
- An industrial excellence program that closed several sites without major business disruption 1.
- Recognized leader in sustainable innovation, with products that reduce energy use and emissions 1.
Weaknesses
- Volumes declined in several regions and growth relied largely on pricing 1.
- The performance coatings division posted a much weaker operating result than the prior year, with significant restructuring charges 1.
- Sub-scale presence in some Asia-Pacific markets, where the company intends to reduce exposure 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Axalta mergerhigh
Closing depends on shareholder and regulatory approvals, and delays or imposed conditions could change the value creation plan 1.
- Weak demand in Asia and North Americamedium
Lower volumes in Asia and softer North American demand could continue to weigh on division results 1.
- Restructuring costsmedium
The industrial excellence program involves site closures and related costs, and full benefits are expected only in 2027 1.
- Currency effectsmedium
Exchange rate movements affect reported revenue and profit, and the company has identified them as a significant factor 1.
- Chemical regulation and compliancelow
Legislation on chemical substances changes constantly, which could require product adjustments and added costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Axalta merger closes and synergies materialize, the company could become a global coatings leader with superior scale and innovation.
- Margin improvement in Decorative Paints and the industrial excellence program could support profitability even with weak volumes.
- The position in aerospace and powder coatings, where the company is investing, could bring medium-term growth.
What would break the thesis
- If the merger is delayed or does not receive the required approvals, the synergy and growth plan could be postponed or reduced.
- Weak volumes in several regions and growth based on pricing might not be sustainable if demand does not recover.
- Restructuring and asset sales could generate additional costs and divert management attention from operational execution.
What to watch
- Status of shareholder and regulatory approvals and closing of the Axalta mergerlate 2026 / early 2027
- Completion of the three site closures announced for 2026 in Decorative Paints EMEA2026
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage, targeted at around 2xend of 2026
- Volume trends in Asia and North America in quarterly reportsnext quarterly results
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
AkzoNobel produces paints and coatings and is organized into two main businesses: Paints and Coatings. In 2025 the group had about 31,500 employees and 125 manufacturing sites 1. Its strategy rests on sustainability-driven innovation, growth in focus segments, industrial excellence and active portfolio management 1.
The company frames its strategy around four pillars: sustainability-driven innovation, growth in focus segments such as aerospace, powder and marine and protective coatings, industrial excellence with a simpler execution model, and active portfolio management 1. These directions show how the company is trying to sustain profitability in a difficult market 1.
Segments
Decorative Paints
The decorative paints division covers interior and exterior products for professionals and the do-it-yourself channel. In 2025 revenue reached 4,090 million EUR, down on the prior year mainly because of currency translation, while the adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 15.8% 1.
Performance Coatings
The performance coatings division makes solutions for industrial, automotive, marine, protective and powder applications. In 2025 revenue was 6,068 million EUR and adjusted EBITDA 843 million EUR, a margin of 13.9% 1.
Industrial and protective coatings
The marine and protective coatings business held steady in 2025, supported by organic growth, while the aerospace coatings business benefited from investment in production capacity 1.
Market context
The coatings market is tied to construction, industry, automotive, energy, packaging and infrastructure. In 2025 demand was uneven across regions: EMEA saw strong pricing but weaker volumes, Latin America grew on pricing, and Asia was hit by price and mix pressure and weakness in Indonesia 1. The company says volumes remained under pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty 1.
Volume growth could come, under uncertain conditions, from segments where the company has differentiated positions, such as aerospace coatings and powder coatings 1. Developments in industrial cycles in Europe and North America could also shape the market 1.
Trends
- Sustainability as an innovation drivertailwind
Demand for products with a lower carbon footprint and recycled content could open market share and higher margins in some markets, according to the company 1.
- Industry consolidation through mergermixed
The merger with Axalta, which could close in late 2026 or early 2027, could bring synergies and greater scale if the required approvals are obtained 1.
- Weaker volumes in Asia and North Americaheadwind
Weaker volumes in Asia, Indonesia and softer demand in North America were a headwind for division results 1.
- Plant optimization and cost consolidationmixed
Closing sites and moving production to regional anchor plants supported efficiency, but involved restructuring costs that weighed on operating income 1.
Competitive position
The coatings market is competitive, with global and regional players. The company competes with large rivals, and the merger with Axalta could change the competitive structure by creating a player of global scale 1.
- Axalta Coating SystemsAXTA
The merger partner, with which AkzoNobel plans to create a combined coatings company later listed solely on the NYSE 1.
- Other global paint and coatings makers
International rivals in decorative and industrial segments whose regional presence influences pricing and market share 1.
- Regional paint makers
Local players in Asia and Latin America that compete on price and volume in consumer markets 1.
- Aerospace and automotive coatings specialists
Specialist firms competing in high-value niches where AkzoNobel aims to strengthen its positions 1.
News & filings
In the press
- AkzoNobel, cu fabrică și în România, oferă concesii la Bruxelles pentru fuziunea de 25 miliarde dolari cu AxaltaProfit.ro · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
- Nippon Paint clinches Dulux brand with deal for Akzo Nobel's Southeast Asia businessNikkei Asia · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- AkzoNobel could sell unit to Nippon Paint for over $1 billion, FT reportsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 04 Oct 2026 · EN
- AkzoNobel, cu fabrică prezentă și în România, a refuzat o altă ofertă din partea Nippon Paint în ceea ce privește preluarea diviziei Decorative PaintsEconomedia · 13 Jul 2026 · RO
- Путин передал во временное управление производителя красок Pinotex и Dulux // Путин передал структуры Akzo Nobel во временное управлениеKommersant (RU) · 13 Jul 2026 · RU
- Nippon Paint Offers $8.6 Billion for Akzo Nobel’s Paint BusinessBloomberg Markets · 13 Jul 2026 · EN
- Nippon Paint said to offer $8.6 billion for Akzo Nobel paint armThe Japan Times · 13 Jul 2026 · RO
- Nippon Paint, Sherwin-Williams End Effort to Buy Akzo NobelBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
- Annual report 202304 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AkzoNobel N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.