olivLaw · European equity research
Ambea AB (publ) AMBEA.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0009663826 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Ambea is a Nordic care services group operating under the Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Validia, Altiden and Klara brands, with clients mainly municipalities and regions in four countries. For fiscal 2025 it reports growth of 13 percent and a profitability margin of 9.6 percent, both above its targets.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ambea AB (publ) (AMBEA.ST) stock was 184.60 SEK (−1.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 15.4 bn SEK, P/E 23.3 on diluted EPS of 7.92 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.20%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 113.80–188.20 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 55.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 179.76 – 188.22
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.57 · band width 4.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 176.99 / 148.64
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.90 / 3.29
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.2% | −0.6% | +5.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +28.8% | −4.2% | +33.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +26.7% | +4.3% | +22.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +30.6% | +7.5% | +23.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +51.6% | +9.9% | +41.6 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | +295.8% | +49.8% | +246.0 pp | +12.0% |
| 5 years | +172.3% | +42.8% | +129.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.4, median 13.4, max 17.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 455.0 m | 620.0 m | 665.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +36.3% | +7.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.07 | 7.20 | 7.92 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +42.0% | +10.0% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 133.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 2.1 bn SEK
- Net debt
- 2.0 bn SEK
- Equity
- 5.2 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 20.5 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.41x
- Current ratio
- 0.41x
- ROE
- 13.1%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 981.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | 2.6 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 416.0 m | 466.0 m | 520.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 565.0 m | 812.0 m | 859.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 110.0 m | 192.0 m | 194.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 455.0 m | 620.0 m | 665.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.07 | 7.20 | 7.92 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.25 | 2.20 | 2.21 | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.0 m | 28.0 m | 133.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 306.0 m | 325.0 m | 396.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 7.0 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 17.9 bn | 18.2 bn | 20.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.9 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 89.7 m | 86.0 m | 83.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 80.0 m | 105.0 m | 122.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -93.0 m | -358.0 m | -1.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.9 bn | -1.7 bn | -672.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 112.0 m | 130.0 m | 185.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 47.0 m | 431.0 m | 485.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 15.4 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality79
- Balance sheet35
- Valuation76
- Returns77
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 16.1% | 67 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 307.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 60 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.3x | 50 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.0x | 81 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 62 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 9.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Ambea AB ( publ ) (AMBEA.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 13.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.
The estimated value range is 122.91–235.26 SEK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 159.68 SEK, the price of 184.60 SEK leaves a potential of -13.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -15.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 307.8%
- EV/EBITDA: 6.0x
- FCF yield: 13.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 9.0%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
- Current ratio: 0.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AMBEA.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ambea is a Nordic care services group operating under the Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Validia, Altiden and Klara brands, with clients mainly municipalities and regions in four countries. For fiscal 2025 it reports growth of 13 percent and a profitability margin of 9.6 percent, both above its targets 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Market leadership in several Nordic countries and a diversified brand platform covering several types of care.
- Meeting the 2025 financial targets for growth, profitability and leverage, according to the annual report.
- An internal quality control system with a rising quality index and monthly follow-up of units.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on public funding and municipal contracts makes revenue sensitive to political and budget decisions.
- Many leases run longer than client contracts, exposing the company to demand risk.
- The emissions reduction target was not fully reached, and the electric fleet transition remained below target.
Opportunities
- Demand for care services could rise as the population in the Nordic region ages.
- Acquisitions and new public contracts could expand activity, particularly in Finland.
- Digital and welfare technology solutions could reduce administrative costs and improve quality.
Threats
- Changes in public procurement rules or local funding could reduce contract volumes.
- Cyber attacks could disrupt the company's IT systems and those of its public clients.
- Crime-related risks and recruitment of unsuitable staff could affect reputation and service safety.
Risks
- Lease commitmentshigh
Long-term leases with clauses limiting early termination could generate losses if demand or occupancy differs from the assumptions made when contracts were signed.
- Acquisition risksmedium
Acquired operations might not develop as expected, which could lead to impairment and reduced liquidity.
- Cyber attackshigh
A rising number and severity of cyber attacks could disrupt the group's and its clients' IT systems.
- Crime and recruitmentmedium
People with criminal intent may try to gain employment, which could affect the safety of care recipients.
- Financing and leveragemedium
If results weakened, the company could breach loan agreement terms, limiting access to financing.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Structural demand for care, supported by demographics and public funding, could sustain steady growth if Ambea keeps its Nordic leadership position.
- Results for 2025 exceeded the growth and profitability targets, showing the company's ability to execute its strategy.
- If the Validia integration and other acquisitions succeed, the company could expand into a new market with growth potential.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on municipal and regional budgets could make revenue vulnerable to budget constraints or policy changes.
- Long-term lease commitments could become a burden if demand falls or costs rise faster than fees.
- The fleet electrification and emissions targets were not fully reached, which could attract criticism and extra costs.
What to watch
- Trend in profitability margin and growth against long-term targets2026
- Results of the Validia integration and its contribution to growth2026
- New public contracts won and contracts lost in tendersNext 10-K
- Progress toward the 2034 emissions targets and fleet electrification2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ambea provides support and care services for elderly people, children, young people and adults with disabilities or psychosocial problems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland. Funding comes largely from the public sector, and the company organises its activity into business areas by country and by brand 1. The company states it runs over 1 000 units in the Nordic region and works with 470 municipalities and 20 welfare areas 1. The acquisition of Validia in Finland was completed at the start of 2025 1.
Another pillar is Lära, the group's competence hub, which offers training solutions for schools, healthcare and care. Ambea combines organic growth with new units, acquisitions and won public contracts 1.
The business model depends on contracts with public authorities and on leased premises, which makes demand relatively stable but sensitive to contracting conditions and rent costs 1.
Segments
Sweden (Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, Klara)
The Swedish segment includes elderly care in homes and at home, as well as support for people with disabilities or psychosocial problems. It is the group's largest market, where Ambea presents itself as a market leader 1.
Finland (Validia)
Validia, acquired at the start of 2025, brings support activity for people with special needs in Finland, which the company describes as a platform with growth potential 1.
Norway and Denmark
In Norway and Denmark the group runs support services for people with disabilities and, in Denmark, also elderly care. These markets complete the Nordic portfolio 1.
Market context
Care markets in the Nordic countries are largely publicly financed and supported by demographic trends with a growing and older population, which could lead to higher demand for services 1.
Ambea describes its position as market leader in Sweden, Norway and Denmark; rising demand could support new contracts, but competition for public contracts remains intense 1.
Trends
- Ageing populationtailwind
A rising number of older people could increase demand for care services regardless of the economic cycle, according to the company's description 1.
- Digitalisation and welfare technologytailwind
The company is testing digital solutions and artificial intelligence to reduce administrative tasks and free time for care, which could improve efficiency 1.
- Cost and rent pressureheadwind
Long-term leases and rent indexation can raise costs, especially if demand does not reach the levels the company estimated 1.
- Shortage of skilled staffmixed
The need for trained personnel is large, and the company recruits and trains staff, including refugees from Ukraine; a staff shortage could limit growth 1.
Competitive position
The company does not name direct competitors in the analysed sources. Competition comes from other private providers and public care services, for contracts with municipalities and regions 1.
Advantages stated by Ambea include Nordic scale, a standardised quality model and a service mix it says supports margins above the sector average, although the document does not compare these claims with competitors 1.
- Private care providers in Sweden
Not named in the source; they compete for the same public care contracts.
- Public care providers
Municipalities and regions can provide services in-house and are also the company's clients.
- Finnish social service operators
Not named in the source; relevant to the Finnish market where the group expanded.
- Care providers in Norway and Denmark
Not identified in the source; they compete in the same disability and elderly care segments.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ambea AB (publ) · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.