olivLaw · European equity research
Avanza Bank Holding AB AZA.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0012454072 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Avanza is the leading digital savings and investment platform in Sweden, with an 8.3% share of the savings market and savings capital growing at a compound annual rate of 13.6%. The company is expanding its focus on pensions, discretionary management and, possibly, entry into markets outside Sweden, against a backdrop of changing interest rates and market volatility.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Avanza Bank Holding AB (AZA.ST) stock was 365.90 SEK (+0.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 57.6 bn SEK, P/E 22.1 on diluted EPS of 16.53 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.21%, beta 0.82, 52-week range 322.10–408.30 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 340.30 – 384.69
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.58 · band width 12.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 378.18 / 366.45
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -5.67 / -7.40
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.6% | −0.6% | −2.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.9% | −4.2% | −3.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.2% | +4.3% | +5.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.6% | +7.5% | −3.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.0% | +9.9% | −8.9 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | +75.6% | +49.8% | +25.7 pp | +12.0% |
| 5 years | +4.8% | +42.8% | −38.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 18.5, median 19.1, max 21.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +13.7% | +15.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 12.64 | 14.32 | 16.53 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +13.3% | +15.4% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 8.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 31.4 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 18.7 bn SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 7.9 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 417.1 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 36.6%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 310.0 m | 367.0 m | 447.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.64 | 14.32 | 16.53 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 7.49 | 11.49 | 11.74 | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 11.2 bn | 12.2 bn | 18.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 58.0 m | 70.0 m | 107.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 282.5 bn | 343.6 bn | 417.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 276.6 bn | 337.3 bn | 409.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.8 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 156.8 m | 157.3 m | 157.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 8.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 31.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 24.0 m | 42.0 m | 74.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 8.6 bn ≈ | 4.0 bn ≈ | 31.4 bn ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.3 bn | -1.2 bn | -23.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.1 bn | -1.8 bn | -1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 57.6 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 1,204.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 22.1x | 50 (vs peers) | 29% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 54.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.2% | 46 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 5.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Avanza Bank Holding AB (AZA.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 36.6%.
The estimated value range is 185.83–350.36 SEK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 239.46 SEK, the price of 365.90 SEK leaves a potential of -34.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -52.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 1,204.6%
- FCF yield: 54.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 5.9%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AZA.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Avanza is the leading digital savings and investment platform in Sweden, with an 8.3% share of the savings market 1 and savings capital growing at a compound annual rate of 13.6% 1. The company is expanding its focus on pensions, discretionary management and, possibly, entry into markets outside Sweden, against a backdrop of changing interest rates and market volatility.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in Sweden's digital savings market, with very high customer retention and a cost per krona of savings declared to be the lowest in the sector 1.
- A business model with several revenue sources balancing interest, commissions and trading activity, supported by an extensive database on customer behaviour 1.
- A broad product offer, with tens of thousands of instruments and an own fund portfolio, which supports its market position 1.
Weaknesses
- Brand awareness in the Private Banking segment is low, even though clients are highly willing to recommend the company 1.
- Revenues are sensitive to interest rates and market volatility, which could make results harder to predict from year to year 1.
- Most customer portfolios remain concentrated in Swedish shares, limiting geographic diversification of activity 1.
Opportunities
- Growth potential in discretionary management and occupational pensions, where the company still has a small share 1.
- Savings held at other providers that could be attracted by the company, especially through digital offers that are easier to use 1.
- A possible entry into a new European market, which could diversify revenues and reduce dependence on the Swedish economy 1.
Threats
- Price pressure and new competitors entering the segment of high-capital customers could reduce commissions 1.
- Regulatory requirements on deposits and liquidity could affect the external savings account model 1.
- Lower market interest rates could reduce net interest income if customer activity does not offset the effect 1.
Risks
- Dependence on the Swedish marketmedium
Almost all activity is concentrated in Sweden, and a local economic downturn could directly affect both the volume of savings and revenues 1.
- Sensitivity of revenues to interest ratesmedium
Lower market interest rates compress net interest income, and the company says customer activity does not always offset this effect 1.
- Regulation of external savings accountsmedium
The decision to wind down external savings accounts could reduce volumes if customers do not stay at Avanza, and capital requirements could change the model 1.
- Pricing pressuremedium
Competition on commissions and the entry of new players could reduce margins in the segment of high-capital customers 1.
- Quality of sustainability datalow
Sustainability reporting depends on data from the external value chain, and inconsistency between periods could affect the credibility of the information 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Avanza converts its loyal customer base into a larger volume of savings, organic growth could continue, supported by low costs and a wide offer 1.
- Development of the pension and discretionary management segments could add revenues that are more stable than those linked to trading 1.
- A recovery in the Swedish economy, with lower interest rates and larger fund inflows, could reactivate long-term savings 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the savings market matures and competition compresses commissions, Avanza could see margins fall without a compensating rise in volumes 1.
- Lower interest rates and weaker trading activity could simultaneously reduce two important revenue sources 1.
- If the international expansion does not succeed, the company could bear costs without sufficiently diversifying its revenues 1.
What to watch
- Development of savings capital and net inflows against the target of 2 000 billion SEK in Sweden2030
- Growth of occupational pensions and market share of premium inflows2030
- Launch of the digital discretionary management offer and customer reaction in Private Bankingnext annual report
- First European country Avanza could enter and the growth model chosen2030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Avanza provides savings, investments, occupational pensions and home loans exclusively through a digital platform, with customers mainly private individuals and a smaller share of corporate clients. The offer includes over 80000 investment options and over 1 400 funds, of which 23 come from its own fund company 1. The business model combines net interest income, commissions and trading-related revenues, which diversifies the company's income sources 1. The company ended 2025 with 722 employees, all based at its head office in Stockholm 1.
On costs, Avanza states that it has the lowest cost per krona of savings capital in the industry, a claim supported through comparison with other players in the sector 1. Around 60% of costs are personnel-related, and the company is investing in a move to the cloud as part of its scalability strategy 1.
The customer relationship rests on high retention: the company reports a customer turnover rate of only 1.3% in 2025 1. This loyal customer base is the main source of organic growth that management points to 1.
Segments
Savings and investment platform (Do-it-myself)
This is Avanza's historical core, made up of investors who manage their own portfolios. The company shows that its customer base is concentrated here and that around 76% of customers' equity portfolios are still in Swedish shares, indicating room for international diversification 1.
Occupational pensions
The pension segment is described as having more stable earnings and net inflows than the rest of the business, since companies pay occupational pensions in all market conditions. Only 9% of customers are occupational pension customers, and the long-term goal is to become the market leader in premium inflows outside collective agreements 1.
Market context
The Swedish savings market is described by the company as mature and highly competitive, with a high level of interest in investing. Avanza estimates its share at 8.3% of the savings market and 11.4% of net inflows 1. Management notes that two thirds of existing customers' savings sit with other providers, of which half could be addressable 1.
The macroeconomic environment in 2025 was described as difficult, with geopolitical tensions and slower growth, but management sees signs of recovery through lower interest rates and an expansive fiscal budget 1. Revenues are sensitive to market volatility and interest levels, so their development can vary from year to year 1.
Trends
- Migration of savings to digital platformstailwind
Digital savings companies benefit from a trend of savings moving from traditional banks to low-cost platforms, which supports attracting new customers 1. Avanza notes that some customers using external accounts have moved to its own savings account, raising deposit volumes on its balance sheet 1.
- Lower market interest ratesmixed
Falling market rates compress net interest income, one of Avanza's main revenue sources, but historically have led to more trading activity and commission revenues 1. The net effect depends on the intensity of customer activity.
- Volatility and trading activitymixed
High stock market volatility increased customer trading activity in 2025, supporting trading-related revenues 1. A calmer market could reduce this effect, and revenues would become more dependent on pension and long-term savings 1.
- Price pressure and competitionheadwind
Management acknowledges that new players are trying to enter the market, especially for high-capital and active customers, and price pressure could grow if competition shifts to commissions 1. Avanza argues the market is already priced very low and that its edge remains user experience 1.
Competitive position
Avanza operates in a Swedish market with several digital savings providers and traditional banks offering discretionary management and advisory services. Management says that in the Private Banking segment clients are the most willing to recommend the company, but brand awareness remains low compared with competitors 1. Over the long term, competition on user experience and cost is the main pressure point 1.
The market is described as mature, with competitors interested in high-capital customers, and Avanza states that it can keep its position through continuous product investment and low costs 1. The source does not explicitly name competitors, so these names should be treated with caution 1.
- Traditional Swedish banks offering discretionary management and advisory
The source refers generically to these institutions as the main holders of customers' savings, without naming them.
- Occupational pension and pension fund providers
Competition in the pension segment, described by the company as an area with growth potential, but no specific names are given in the source.
- New entrants to digital savings
Management says new players are trying to enter, particularly for high-capital customers, but the source does not identify them.
- Discretionary advisory providers
According to the company, these competitors hold a significant part of Avanza customers' savings, but they are not named in the source.
News & filings
In the press
- Un centenar de migrantes del instituto B9 avanza hacia la regularización y 18 ya la han logradoSurge — GDELT DOC · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- Peinador quiere volver a despegar : Vigo avanza en las negociaciones para volar a Londres y ParísSurge — GDELT DOC · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- La Junta avanza en la recuperación del puente de la Toleta en Puerto SerranoSurge — GDELT DOC · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Diputados : La Libertad Avanza logró dictamen de mayoría sobre discapacidadSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Avanza Bank Holding AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.