olivLaw · European equity research
Bunzl plc BNZL.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B0744B38 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Bunzl is a global distributor of packaging, cleaning, hygiene and protective equipment, operating across several sectors and countries with a strategy built on organic growth, operational efficiency and acquisitions. In 2025 the company went through a difficult period, with execution problems in its North America Distribution business and a falling operating margin, though signs of stabilisation appeared in the second half of the year. Revenue reached £11,845.4 million and the operating margin was 7.7%.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Bunzl plc (BNZL.L) stock was 29.24 GBP (+1.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.5 bn GBP, P/E 20.8 on diluted EPS of 1.41 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.55%, beta 0.25, 52-week range 19.89–29.24 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.11 – 29.34
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.95 · band width 7.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.18 / 24.99
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.51 / 0.46
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.6% | +0.4% | +9.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.2% | −3.3% | +6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +20.3% | +4.0% | +16.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +40.8% | +8.1% | +32.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +27.9% | +10.7% | +17.2 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +1.7% | +50.1% | −48.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +7.0% | +43.6% | −36.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.7, median 20.4, max 22.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.8 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.2% | +0.6% |
| Net income | 526.2 m | 500.4 m | 459.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −4.9% | −8.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.56 | 1.49 | 1.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −4.7% | −5.2% |
| net % | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| Free cash flow | 845.7 m | 856.5 m | 841.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 540.1 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.9 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 1.4 bn GBP
- Equity
- 2.8 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 8.6 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.69x
- Current ratio
- 1.39x
- ROE
- 16.4%
- ROA
- 5.1%
- FCF margin
- 7.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.8 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.8 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 789.1 m | 799.3 m | 735.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 150.9 m | 178.0 m | 181.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 698.6 m | 673.6 m | 620.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 172.4 m | 172.6 m | 160.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 526.2 m | 500.4 m | 459.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.56 | 1.49 | 1.41 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.75 | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 540.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.0 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 159.4 m | 213.3 m | 231.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.7 bn | 9.5 bn | 8.6 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 130.0 m | 619.2 m | 203.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.8 bn | 6.7 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 334.9 m | 334.5 m | 324.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 904.0 m | 910.9 m | 913.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 58.3 m | 54.4 m | 71.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 845.7 m ≈ | 856.5 m ≈ | 841.5 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -339.5 m | -609.1 m | -119.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -666.9 m | -381.1 m | -901.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 209.7 m | 228.6 m | 242.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 57 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.5 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns62
- Balance sheet43
- Valuation60
- Quality59
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 57/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.5% | 50 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.9% | 34 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 183.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.1x | 39 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 50 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.8x | 28 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.6% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 28.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BUNZL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (BNZL.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.8 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 0.6%; net margin 3.9%; ROE 16.5%.
The estimated value range is 15.91–24.53 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 20.33 GBP, the price of 29.24 GBP leaves a potential of -30.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -43.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 183.3%
- FCF yield: 8.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 28.8%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 20.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| BNZL.LBunzl Public Limited Company | 9.5 bn | 20.8 | 16.5% | 3.9% | +0.6% | +35% / −3% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BNZL.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.67 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 29.54 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 44.57 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 14.93 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 29.88 Total return 10% · Per year 3% | 49.69 Total return 80% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 13.38 Total return -46% · Per year -11% | 30.23 Total return 16% · Per year 3% | 55.39 Total return 107% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 7.47
- Net margin± 5.23
- Annual revenue growth± 4.46
- Annual dilution± 0.44
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Bunzl is a global distributor of packaging, cleaning, hygiene and protective equipment, operating across several sectors and countries with a strategy built on organic growth, operational efficiency and acquisitions. In 2025 the company went through a difficult period, with execution problems in its North America Distribution business and a falling operating margin, though signs of stabilisation appeared in the second half of the year 1. Revenue reached £11,845.4 million 1 and the operating margin was 7.7% 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong market positions, national coverage and an extensive logistics network that support service levels and access to large customers 1.
- High cash generation and disciplined capital management that allow investment, dividends and acquisitions without excessive borrowing 1.
- A portfolio diversified by sector and country that reduces dependence on any single market or customer type 1.
Weaknesses
- Execution problems in the group's largest business hit profit and led to the loss of part of the customer portfolio 1.
- The operating margin fell in 2025, showing profitability is sensitive to operating costs and price pressure 1.
- Exposure to sectors such as foodservice and convenience retail makes the company vulnerable to lower consumer spending 1.
Opportunities
- Consolidation of the distribution market offers growth potential through acquisitions, and the outlook for 2026 looks more favourable 1.
- Wider adoption of own brand products and digital sales could improve margins if adoption continues 1.
- Demand for sustainable solutions could support new customer wins and organic growth 1.
Threats
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty could reduce demand and weaken customers' ability to pay 1.
- Competitive pressure and the risk of losing large customers could push prices and margins down 1.
- Tariffs and volatile supply costs could hurt profitability if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
Risks
- Execution of organisational changehigh
Difficulties during the operating model change in North America Distribution weighed on 2025 results and could do so again if remediation measures fall short 1.
- Competitive pressuremedium
Competition and price pressure from large customers could reduce revenue and margins 1.
- Customer insolvencymedium
The failure of a large customer or many small ones could suddenly reduce revenue and create receivables losses 1.
- Product deflation and cost inflationmedium
Sudden changes in product or operating costs could affect profit if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Geopolitical instabilitylow
Conflicts, regulatory changes and trade tensions could disrupt supply and affect customer relationships 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company could recover margin if remediation in North America and efficiency gains in Europe keep delivering, as the second-half 2025 improvement suggests 1.
- Strong cash generation and a controlled debt level could allow acquisitions and shareholder returns without compromising the balance sheet 1.
- If the consolidation market opens up, Bunzl could accelerate growth through acquisitions, with an active pipeline of opportunities 1.
What would break the thesis
- If execution problems in North America persist, profit could stay under pressure for longer than expected 1.
- Weak demand in economically sensitive sectors could limit organic growth and push margins down again 1.
- Rising debt and pressure on cash flow could limit the ability to fund acquisitions if results deteriorate 1.
What to watch
- Trajectory of underlying revenue and operating margin in North America2026
- Pace of acquisition completions and the level of committed acquisition spend2026
- Outcome of the warehouse consolidation in France and other efficiency measures2026
- Level of adjusted net debt to EBITDA and cash conversionnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Bunzl distributes a broad range of consumable and protective products to customers in foodservice, retail, healthcare, food processing and cleaning services. Its model combines third-party branded products with its own brand range, a warehouse network and a digital ordering platform. The company operates in 33 countries 1 and pursues growth through three pillars: organic growth, operational efficiency and acquisitions of complementary businesses 1.
Cash generation is central to the model: cash conversion was 95% in 2025 1, above the 90% target, supporting dividends, share buybacks and self-funded acquisitions 1. Adjusted net debt to EBITDA rose to 2.0 times at the end of 2025 1.
The management structure is decentralised, with regional business areas managing local risks and operations under the oversight of an Executive Committee and the Board 1.
Segments
Bunzl North America Distribution
The group's largest business, serving mainly grocery and foodservice customers. In 2025 it was hit by execution problems linked to a move to a new operating model that separates supply chain from sales, as well as pressure from end markets 1. Leadership changes and cost actions followed, and new business wins appeared towards the end of the year 1.
UK & Ireland
The business saw margin growth in the second half of 2025, supported by good performance in its foodservice businesses and by synergies from the Nisbets acquisition 1.
Continental Europe
Margin stabilised after a decline in the first half, helped by cost actions, portfolio management and new business wins, while France remained under pressure from deflation in cleaning and hygiene products 1.
Market context
Underlying revenue growth was modest at 0.4% in 2025 1, with demand weak in North America, Mexico and Brazil but better in Asia Pacific, the Netherlands and Spain 1. The company sees a significant consolidation opportunity in the market and says the acquisition outlook has improved for 2026 1. Management expects moderate revenue growth in 2026 at constant exchange rates 1.
Market pressures include macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, supply costs affected by tariffs, and the sensitivity of the foodservice sector, which has been more exposed to economic conditions 1.
Trends
- Consolidation of the distribution markettailwind
The company identifies a significant consolidation opportunity that could support medium-term growth if acquisitions materialise in 2026 1.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintyheadwind
Pressure on demand in foodservice and retail could limit revenue growth, particularly in North America 1.
- Tariffs and cost pressuremixed
Tariffs have caused supply chain disruption and price increases in North America, which could affect margins if prices cannot be fully passed on 1.
- Operational efficiencytailwind
Warehouse consolidation and automation could reduce operating costs and improve service levels if these projects proceed as planned 1.
Competitive position
Bunzl operates in highly competitive markets, facing international, national, regional and local companies. Customer price pressure and the risk of losing market share are risks acknowledged by management 1. Geographic and sector diversification and a broad range of tailored solutions are meant to counter this pressure 1.
The company notes it could lose customers or share of wallet to competitors, or to customers who choose to deal directly with suppliers 1. Development of own brand products and investment in digital platforms are its responses to this pressure 1.
- International and regional distribution competitors
The analysed sources do not name competitors, so the list stays general and no ticker is confirmed.
- Local cleaning and packaging distributors
Local competitors are mentioned in the report as part of competitive pressure, without names.
- Suppliers selling direct to customers
The report mentions the risk of large customers dealing directly with suppliers, without naming them.
- Digital distribution companies
The report mentions new market entrants using disruptive technologies, without naming them.
News & filings
In the press
- Elliott Said to Take Almost 5% Stake in UK Distributor BunzlBloomberg Markets · 15 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Bunzl plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.