olivLaw · European equity research
BT Group plc BT-A.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0030913577 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
BT Group is the main telecommunications provider in the United Kingdom, active in fixed and mobile connectivity through the BT, EE and Plusnet brands, and in fibre networks through Openreach. As part of its next-generation network strategy, the group continued expanding fibre and 5G+ coverage, while reported revenue fell from the prior year.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, BT Group plc (BT-A.L) stock was 2.32 GBP (+0.09% on the day), with market capitalisation 22.7 bn GBP, P/E 21.5 on diluted EPS of 0.11 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.53%, beta 0.08, 52-week range 1.75–2.40 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 73.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.88 – 2.35
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 21.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.04 / 2.06
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.08 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +18.7% | −0.6% | +19.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +15.9% | −4.2% | +20.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +4.6% | +4.3% | +0.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +25.9% | +7.5% | +18.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +28.8% | +9.9% | +18.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +86.6% | +49.8% | +36.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +44.9% | +42.8% | +2.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 12.8, median 15.6, max 19.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.8 bn | 20.4 bn | 19.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −2.1% | −3.5% |
| Net income | 855.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +23.3% | +2.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +23.3% | +1.9% |
| net % | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 359.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 18.5 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 18.2 bn GBP
- Equity
- 12.6 bn GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- 1.48x
- Current ratio
- 0.85x
- ROE
- 8.5%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.8 bn | 20.4 bn | 19.7 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 331.0 m | 280.0 m | 359.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 855.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.11 | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 414.0 m | 216.0 m | 359.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Inventories | 409.0 m | 331.0 m | 366.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.7 bn | 8.4 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 22.6 bn | 23.4 bn | 24.7 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 7.3 bn | 7.3 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 420.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 17.1 bn | 16.7 bn | 18.1 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.8 bn | 10.3 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 12.5 bn | 12.9 bn | 12.6 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 9.8 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.8 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.0 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -3.5 bn | -5.0 bn | -3.8 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.4 bn | -2.1 bn | -3.1 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 759.0 m | 788.0 m | 807.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 133.0 m | 79.0 m | 126.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 22.7 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.0% | 25 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.5% | 40 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 9 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 4 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.5x | 28 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet7/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial59/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial28/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BT GROUP PLC (BT-A.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.7 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth -3.5%; net margin 5.5%; ROE 8.5%.
The estimated value range is 0.90–1.30 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.10 GBP, the price of 2.32 GBP leaves a potential of -52.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -111.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 7.0%
- Interest coverage: 2.1x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 21.5x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| BT-A.LBt Group PLC | 22.7 bn | 21.5 | 8.5% | 5.5% | −3.5% | +28% / +89% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BT-A.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.28 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 2.28 Total return 1% · Per year 1% | 3.45 Total return 52% · Per year 52% |
| 3 years | 1.05 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 2.12 Total return -1% · Per year -0% | 3.55 Total return 62% · Per year 18% |
| 5 years | 0.87 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 1.98 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 3.66 Total return 74% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 0.53
- Net margin± 0.37
- Annual revenue growth± 0.33
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
BT Group is the main telecommunications provider in the United Kingdom, active in fixed and mobile connectivity through the BT, EE and Plusnet brands, and in fibre networks through Openreach. As part of its next-generation network strategy, the group continued expanding fibre and 5G+ coverage, while reported revenue fell from the prior year 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group owns a large national fibre and mobile infrastructure, with a retail market share anchored in three complementary brands.
- Converged connectivity combining broadband and mobile has grown among customers and supports long-term relationships.
- The programme moving customers off legacy networks reduces operational complexity and associated costs.
Weaknesses
- Reported revenue fell in fiscal 2026, partly due to lower International activity and weaker handset sales.
- Normalised free cash flow declined, and capital expenditure, interest and working capital absorbed part of the margin.
- Mobile market share was eroded in recent years by the value segment before a recent recovery.
Opportunities
- Expanding fibre and 5G+ could open new revenue opportunities in homes and businesses that do not yet have access.
- Growth in converged households could increase the average value of customers.
- Reducing customer service time could improve satisfaction and retention if the trend continues.
Threats
- Competition in the value segment from virtual operators and sub-brands could keep pressing prices.
- The fixed broadband market has remained nearly stable, which limits organic customer growth.
- Regulatory and cybersecurity requirements could raise compliance and operating costs.
Risks
- Competitive pressure in mobilemedium
Value operators could continue attracting customers with cheaper offers, which could affect market share and average revenue.
- Execution of the fibre programmemedium
Reaching the fibre target and delivering the network could face construction delays or unforeseen costs.
- Cybersecurity riskshigh
Cyber threats and operational incidents could affect critical services and the group's reputation if not managed well.
- Pressure on free cash flowmedium
Higher capital expenditure and interest costs could limit the group's ability to generate free cash flow in the coming years.
- Leadership and finance changeslow
The transition to a new finance director and executive committee appointments could create uncertainty in implementing the strategy.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If fibre and 5G+ expansion continues, the group could turn infrastructure investment into more stable and hard-to-replace connectivity revenue.
- Growth in converged households and the recovery of mobile market share could support a more valuable customer base.
- Efficiency programmes and the retirement of legacy networks could improve margins over the medium term.
What would break the thesis
- If pressure in the value segment intensifies, average revenue per customer could fall and market share could be eroded again.
- Lower reported revenue and normalised free cash flow could limit financial flexibility if the trend persists.
- A nearly stable fixed broadband market could limit growth, and infrastructure costs could remain high.
What to watch
- Trend in reported revenue and normalised free cash flownext 10-K
- Progress toward the target of 25 million premises with FTTP access2026
- Development of mobile market share in the value segmentQ1 2027
- Impact of the transition to a new finance director on strategy2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
BT Group plc provides communications services to consumer, business and wholesale customers in the United Kingdom and other countries. The group organises its activity around its three-pillar strategy: Build, Connect and Accelerate. Reported revenue for fiscal 2026 was £19,654m, down from £20,358m in the prior year, mainly due to lower International revenue including divestments and lower handset trading 1.
The group's main infrastructure asset is the Openreach network, which connected 8.8m premises to full fibre by the end of fiscal 2026, up from 6.5m in the prior year. Premises with access to the FTTP network reached 22.9m, and management is on track for 25 million by the end of 2026 1.
Normalised free cash flow was £1,508m in fiscal 2026, down from £1,598m, due to higher cash capital expenditure, interest costs and working capital movements, partly offset by working capital programmes 1.
Segments
Business
The business segment serves companies and organisations with connectivity and communications services. Average time spent on Business customer service issues fell to 61.1 minutes in fiscal 2026, from 64.0 minutes in the prior year 1.
Openreach
Openreach is the network unit that builds and operates the fibre and access infrastructure, serving other providers as well. Its FTTP rollout is the main indicator of the group's Build strategy 1.
Market context
The British telecommunications market is competitive, with value segments served by virtual operators and sub-brands. Management notes that the fixed broadband market has been roughly flat over the last four years, with about 28.6m active lines in fiscal 2026, so growth depends more on market share and migration to fibre than on market expansion 1.
The UK mobile market had about 87m active SIMs at the end of 2025. BT lost part of its base share in the value segment in recent years but recovered through base growth over the last 12 months 1.
Trends
- Migration to fibre and new networkstailwind
Moving customers from legacy networks to new platforms cut legacy connections to 1.9m from 4.2m, which could lower maintenance costs if the process continues at the same pace 1.
- Price competition in the value segmentheadwind
Virtual operators and sub-brands have pressed mobile market share, and management has described this segment as increasingly competitive, which could limit growth in average revenue per customer 1.
- Cost reduction and workforcemixed
Total headcount, including subcontractors, fell to 108k as part of the cost transformation programme. Efficiency gains may support margins but could affect operational capacity if prolonged 1.
- Rising demand for fibre and 5G+tailwind
Demand for FTTP full fibre is high, and 5G+ coverage grew to 72.5% of the population. This infrastructure expansion could support long-term connectivity revenue 1.
Competitive position
The group operates in a competitive UK retail market, where rivals include mobile and broadband operators with their own networks as well as virtual operators and sub-brands that press prices. The source does not name individual competitors, and market shares are reported only for BT, EE and Plusnet 1.
- Mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) and sub-brands
Players in the value segment of the British mobile market, cited by management as the main source of pressure on mobile market share.
- Fixed broadband providers with their own networks
Competitors in UK broadband retail, in a fixed market that is almost stable and where switching has become easier.
- Other fibre network operators
Fibre networks built by other operators in the United Kingdom, competing with Openreach in areas of coverage.
- International telecommunications operators
Companies operating outside the United Kingdom, whose presence affects the group's international segment, already reduced through divestments.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202611 Jun 2026
- Annual report 202517 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / BT Group plc · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.