olivLaw · European equity research
CMC Markets plc CMCX.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B14SKR37 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
CMC Markets is a UK-based online financial services group offering trading and investing to retail clients, along with B2B solutions through partnerships. The company is moving from a spread betting model toward a global multi-asset platform, a shift that matters for how it diversifies revenue.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, CMC Markets plc (CMCX.L) stock was 6.95 GBP (−2.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.9 bn GBP, P/E 25.3 on diluted EPS of 0.28 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.98%, beta 0.56, 52-week range 2.06–7.85 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.62 – 7.31
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.48 · band width 9.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.01 / 5.17
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.04 / 0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.4% | +0.4% | +2.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.3% | −3.3% | +3.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +83.9% | +4.0% | +79.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +132.4% | +8.1% | +124.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +218.8% | +10.7% | +208.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +600.6% | +50.1% | +550.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +158.4% | +43.6% | +114.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 9.2, median 12.5, max 13.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 324.7 m | 317.6 m | 376.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −2.2% | +18.6% |
| Net income | unavailable | 46.9 m | 62.2 m | 74.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +32.6% | +19.6% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +35.3% | +21.7% |
| net % | unavailable | 14.4% | 19.6% | 19.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 72.5 m | 172.3 m | 45.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 276.5 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 457.2 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.0 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.75x
- ROE
- 17.0%
- ROA
- 8.6%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 324.7 m | 317.6 m | 376.8 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | 65.6 m | 89.6 m | 103.4 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Interest expense | — | 2.0 m | 2.6 m | 2.8 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | 63.3 m | 84.5 m | 101.3 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 16.4 m | 22.3 m | 27.6 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | — | 46.9 m | 62.2 m | 74.4 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.28 | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.14 | esef· 25 Jun 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 146.2 m | 160.3 m | 247.7 m | 276.5 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 162.1 m | 145.8 m | 186.9 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 647.9 m | 641.2 m | 915.9 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 28.5 m | 24.2 m | — | esef· 24 Jun 2025verified |
| Total assets | — | 716.9 m | 732.0 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 297.9 m | 299.7 m | 522.2 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 313.4 m | 314.0 m | 549.7 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 374.0 m | 403.5 m | 418.0 m | 457.2 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 280.8 m | 275.2 m | 270.4 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 80.1 m | 175.4 m | 49.0 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 7.6 m | 3.0 m | 3.3 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 72.5 m ≈ | 172.3 m ≈ | 45.7 m ≈ | esef· 25 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | -41.6 m | -41.4 m | -13.1 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | -21.0 m | -41.3 m | -13.0 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 13.7 m | 28.7 m | 37.2 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 1.8 m | 15.0 m | 13.8 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.9 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 19.7% | 74 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 61.5% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 36.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 25.3x | 11 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.4% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 39 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 81.3% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns45/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CMC MARKETS PLC (CMCX.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 376.8 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth 18.6%; net margin 19.7%; ROE 17.0%.
The estimated value range is 2.23–3.23 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.73 GBP, the price of 6.95 GBP leaves a potential of -60.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -154.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 19.7%
- Interest coverage: 36.6x
- Current ratio: 1.8x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 25.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| CMCX.LCmc Markets PLC | 1.9 bn | 25.3 | 17.0% | 19.7% | +18.6% | +140% / +672% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CMCX.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 4.54 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 7.99 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 11.99 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 5.39 Total return -17% · Per year -6% | 10.57 Total return 60% · Per year 17% | 17.26 Total return 158% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 6.39 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 13.98 Total return 116% · Per year 17% | 24.86 Total return 278% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 2.64
- Net margin± 1.85
- Annual revenue growth± 1.38
- Annual dilution± 0.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
CMC Markets is a UK-based online financial services group offering trading and investing to retail clients, along with B2B solutions through partnerships. The company is moving from a spread betting model toward a global multi-asset platform, a shift that matters for how it diversifies revenue.
SWOT
Strengths
- A proprietary technology platform described as scalable, and a brand considered well established.
- A diversified revenue model combining trading with B2B partnerships and non-trading income.
- A solid capital position supported by strict cost and capital allocation discipline.
Weaknesses
- Historical dependence on retail trading exposes revenue to market volatility.
- The report mentions operational incidents and control weaknesses, some still being remediated.
Opportunities
- Institutional and B2B partnerships could bring access to large client bases through embedded distribution.
- Demand for self-directed investing, digital assets and wealth management could support growth.
- Building recurring revenue from investing could reduce dependence on market volatility.
Threats
- Regulatory pressure on leveraged products could limit the revenue model.
- Intense competition and shifting demand could reduce market share and product relevance.
- Cyber threats and operational resilience risks could affect service availability.
Risks
- Strategic riskhigh
If strategic initiatives are not prioritised or delivered well, growth and reputation could suffer.
- Market riskmedium
Price movements, interest rates and currency changes could reduce the value of the residual portfolio.
- Regulatory and conduct riskhigh
Scrutiny of leveraged products could lead to restrictions or additional costs.
- Technology and security riskmedium
Platform failures or cyber attacks could interrupt services and damage client trust.
- Third-party dependency risklow
Reliance on liquidity providers, prime brokers and technology partners could expose the group to disruption.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the move to a multi-asset platform succeeds, the group could attract new clients and grow recurring revenue.
- B2B partnerships could bring predictable distribution and less exposure to retail client volatility.
- Cost discipline and a strong capital position could support growth investment and the stated dividend policy.
What would break the thesis
- Regulatory pressure on leveraged products could shrink core revenue and raise compliance costs.
- Intense competition could compress margins and market share if the platform does not differentiate enough.
- Operational incidents and controls still being remediated could lead to loss of trust or sanctions.
What to watch
- Progress of the multi-asset platform initiatives and B2B partnerships2027
- Development of investing and wealth management revenuenext 10-K
- Remediation of control weaknesses and operational incidents2027
- Regulatory impact on leveraged products2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group operates as an online financial services firm with trading, investing and wealth management offerings. According to the annual report, its model combines retail activity with B2B partnerships and non-trading income. Its proprietary technology platform is presented as the foundation for scalable growth.
The company notes it operates under a complex regulatory framework across several jurisdictions, with focus on consumer protection, market integrity and operational resilience. It describes leveraged products as under regulatory scrutiny. This exposure directly shapes its risk profile and compliance costs.
Management emphasises strict cost discipline and capital allocation to support growth investment and cash generation. The annual report presents this balance as part of a long-term strategy rather than a short-term goal.
Segments
Retail trading
Retail trading is the historical core of the business but is exposed to market volatility and shifts in client behaviour. The report indicates client activity was supported by volatility over the past year, while also producing more cautious behaviour at times.
B2B and institutional partnerships
Institutional and B2B partnerships provide access to large client bases through embedded distribution, which could bring more predictable revenue. The company presents these as a growing component of non-trading income.
Investing and wealth management
Building investing and wealth capabilities is meant to deepen client relationships and create more recurring revenue. The company points to growth in assets under administration as a strategic aim, without quantifying it here.
Market context
The market the group operates in is shaped by elevated interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and uneven volatility across asset classes, according to the report. These conditions support client activity but can also make it more cautious. Interest income rose as a share of the revenue mix in the reported period.
Client demand is shifting toward multi-asset platforms, intuitive interfaces and competitive pricing, and competition is intense. The report links these dynamics to strategic risk, including competitive positioning and product relevance.
Trends
- Shift from spread betting to a multi-asset platformmixed
The company describes this transition as a major strategic change that requires aligning investment with future revenue pools. If execution falls short, strategic and cost risks could rise.
- Interest in self-directed investing and digital assetstailwind
The report mentions growing demand for self-directed investing, digital assets such as crypto and wealth management solutions. These trends could open growth opportunities if products are well managed.
- Regulatory pressure on leveraged productsheadwind
Regulators are closely examining leveraged products and client outcomes. This pressure could narrow the revenue model and raise compliance costs.
- Cyber risk and operational resiliencemixed
The external environment presents rising cyber and operational risks, and the company is investing in platform stability and security. These investments reduce exposure but require ongoing spending.
Competitive position
The report describes the market as highly competitive without naming direct rivals in the text. Clients increasingly compare platforms on multi-asset capability, user experience and price.
- Online trading platform providers in Europe and Asia
The report does not name competitors; this category covers online brokers offering leveraged trading and investing.
- Online brokers with multi-asset offerings
Competition comes from firms giving access to several asset classes on digital platforms.
- Investing and wealth management platforms for retail clients
These firms compete on the investing and asset administration side, an area the company is developing.
- Technology and distribution providers for B2B partnerships
Competition in the B2B segment is for access to institutional partners and large client bases.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202625 Jun 2026
- Annual report 202524 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / CMC Markets plc · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.