olivLaw · European equity research
Dunelm Group plc DNLM.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B1CKQ739 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Dunelm is the UK's leading homewares retailer, with a market share of 7.9% in a market worth about 24 bn GBP. The company is expanding its store and digital footprint and entered Ireland in fiscal 2025, so its performance is closely watched by investors.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Dunelm Group plc (DNLM.L) stock was 9.09 GBP (+1.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.8 bn GBP, P/E 11.8 on diluted EPS of 0.77 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 8.67%, beta 0.48, 52-week range 7.15–11.70 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 7.98 – 9.31
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.83 · band width 15.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 8.26 / 8.41
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.22 / 0.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.4% | −0.6% | +17.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.3% | −4.2% | +6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.0% | +4.3% | +14.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −19.6% | +7.5% | −27.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −21.0% | +9.9% | −30.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −10.8% | +49.8% | −60.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −31.8% | +42.8% | −74.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.3, median 14.9, max 15.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.1% | +3.8% |
| Net income | 151.9 m | 151.2 m | 156.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −0.5% | +3.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −0.8% | +3.2% |
| net % | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | 219.2 m | 202.5 m | 220.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Jun 2025
- Cash
- 30.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 118.8 m GBP
- Total assets
- 741.5 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.04x
- ROE
- 121.8%
- ROA
- 22.0%
- FCF margin
- 12.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 817.9 m | 823.2 m | 842.7 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 820.9 m | 883.3 m | 928.3 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Operating income | 198.8 m | 213.3 m | 222.0 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 7.8 m | 9.9 m | 12.4 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 192.7 m | 205.4 m | 211.0 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Income tax | 40.8 m | 54.2 m | 54.7 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Net income | 151.9 m | 151.2 m | 156.3 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.77 | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.81 | 0.78 | 0.79 | esef· 14 Oct 2025derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 46.3 m | 23.4 m | 30.0 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Receivables | 24.3 m | 26.2 m | 40.1 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Inventories | 211.0 m | 223.0 m | 226.3 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Current assets | 283.4 m | 272.9 m | 298.2 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 169.9 m | 173.0 m | 178.7 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 5.3 m | 3.8 m | 10.8 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Total assets | 696.8 m | 682.0 m | 741.5 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 269.6 m | 263.5 m | 286.4 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 559.3 m | 544.1 m | 622.7 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Equity | 137.5 m † | 137.9 m † | 118.8 m † | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 202.0 m | 202.4 m | 202.5 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025derived |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 240.6 m | 232.3 m | 255.9 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Capex | 21.4 m | 29.8 m | 35.2 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 219.2 m ≈ | 202.5 m ≈ | 220.7 m ≈ | esef· 14 Oct 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -20.7 m | -38.3 m | -65.9 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -204.4 m | -217.3 m | -183.0 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 163.3 m | 157.6 m | 159.4 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.0 m | 0 | 14.7 m | esef· 14 Oct 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.8 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.8% | 43 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 141.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 17.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.8x | 72 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 72.2% | 68 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet68/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
DUNELM GROUP PLC (DNLM.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-06-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.8 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 3.8%; net margin 8.8%; ROE 121.8%.
The estimated value range is 8.20–11.46 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.81 GBP, the price of 9.09 GBP leaves a potential of 8.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 7.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 141.2%
- Interest coverage: 17.9x
- P/E (TTM): 11.8x
- FCF yield: 12.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.5%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| DNLM.LDunelm Group PLC | 1.8 bn | 11.8 | 121.8% | 8.8% | +3.8% | −18% / −13% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DNLM.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.36 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 9.48 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 14.28 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 5.13 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 10.21 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 16.90 Total return 121% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 4.90 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 10.99 Total return 69% · Per year 11% | 20.00 Total return 183% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 2.55
- Net margin± 1.79
- Annual revenue growth± 1.48
- Annual dilution± 0.15
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Dunelm is the UK's leading homewares retailer, with a market share of 7.9% 1 in a market worth about 24 bn GBP 1. The company is expanding its store and digital footprint and entered Ireland in fiscal 2025, so its performance is closely watched by investors.
SWOT
Strengths
- Dunelm is the market leader in a fragmented category, with a strong brand and a wide range, largely own-brand 1.
- Its model combines store and online service, and the company has a strong balance sheet and a capital-light growth model 1.
- The company has a loyal customer base and a reputation for quality, value and service 1.
Weaknesses
- Its share is high in textiles but low in newer categories such as furniture, where expansion takes time 1.
- The company partly depends on suppliers in the Far East, exposing it to cost and supply chain disruption 1.
- Employee costs are a large part of operating costs, and regulatory increases raise them significantly 1.
Opportunities
- The fragmented market gives the company room to gain share, especially in categories where its presence is still limited 1.
- Online personalisation and new store formats could attract more customers and raise sales per customer 1.
- Expansion in Ireland, through the 13 acquired stores, opens a new market for the company 1.
Risks
- Customer offerhigh
If the company fails to respond to changing consumer behaviour, it could lose market share and profitable growth could be affected 1.
- Geopolitical uncertaintyhigh
Global tensions and trade disputes could raise costs and disrupt supply, a category added as a new principal risk in this report 1.
- Cyber security and datahigh
The company has noted an increasing risk given the volume and sophistication of attacks on retailers; failures could affect infrastructure and customer data 1.
- Business changemedium
Large digital transformation programmes could fail to deliver the intended benefits on time or within budget, limiting efficiency 1.
- Regulation and compliancemedium
Regulatory changes and ethical sourcing expectations could increase compliance burden and costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Dunelm is the market leader in the UK with a strong brand and a share that can grow in a fragmented market 1. If active customers keep rising, the company could grow sales without heavy capital investment.
- Expansion into Ireland, new store formats and online personalisation open several growth sources 1. If these work, revenue per customer could increase.
- The company has a solid balance sheet and paid substantial dividends to shareholders in fiscal 2025 1.
What would break the thesis
- UK consumer confidence remains weak, and inflation and interest rates could keep limiting spending on the home 1.
- Employee costs are rising quickly due to regulation, and efficiency gains might not fully offset the margin pressure 1.
- Geopolitical, cyber and digital transformation risks are rated as increasing, which could affect strategy execution 1.
What to watch
- Trend in UK active customers and market sharenext 10-K
- Impact of employee costs on margins2027
- Performance of the Irish stores and expansion into new categories2027
- Progress of digital transformation programmes and cyber security measuresnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Dunelm Group plc is a UK homewares specialist with a wide range, largely own-brand, sold through its 202 stores 1 and online. Its Total Retail System combines in-store service with online ordering, Click & Collect, home delivery and Made-to-Measure 1. The company relies on control over specification and sourcing through long-standing supplier relationships 1.
In fiscal 2025 Dunelm opened new stores in different formats, including one at Westfield in inner London, and expanded its range beyond 100,000 SKUs 1. It acquired 13 stores in Ireland 1, its first step outside the UK. Active UK customers grew 0.8% 1.
Dunelm frames its strategy around three pillars: elevating its product offer, connecting with more customers and harnessing its operational capabilities 1. The company says growth has historically come mainly from market share gains and targets 10% share in the medium term 1.
Segments
Textiles and core homewares
In its core categories such as textiles, Dunelm holds a share close to 20%, according to the annual report 1. These are the categories where its expertise is deepest.
Furniture and newer categories
In newer categories such as furniture its share is in low single digits, and the company sees growth opportunities there 1. Extending the offer into categories that help make a house a home is one of its stated priorities.
Online and store channels
Dunelm sells through stores and dunelm.com, where 60% of online customers now see bespoke product ideas 1. The company is directing investment toward the digital experience and refreshing its store estate.
Market context
The UK homewares and furniture market is worth about 24 bn GBP 1 and is highly fragmented, leaving room for the company to grow its share. Dunelm is the market leader with a 7.9% share 1. Demand is affected by inflation, interest rates and political uncertainty, and consumer confidence has stayed low 1.
The company imports roughly one-third of its products directly, mainly from the Far East, and sources more indirectly through UK suppliers 1. Employee costs have risen with higher National Living Wage and employer National Insurance contributions 1.
Trends
- Weak consumer confidenceheadwind
Inflation, interest rates and political uncertainty have kept UK consumer confidence weak, although shopping patterns have been relatively stable 1. If this persists, demand for homewares could remain under pressure.
- Fragmented markettailwind
The homewares market is highly fragmented, and Dunelm sees opportunities to gain share in every category 1. This supports the company's growth plan.
- Labour cost pressureheadwind
Increases in the National Living Wage and employer National Insurance have a significant impact, as employee costs are a large part of the operating base 1. The company is responding with efficiency and automation.
- Digitalisation and AImixed
Dunelm is investing in personalisation, better site search and assisted self-checkouts, which could lower costs and lift conversion 1. Implementation and cyber risks nonetheless remain elevated.
Competitive position
Dunelm competes in a highly fragmented homewares and furniture market where its 7.9% share makes it the leader 1. Competition comes from specialist chains, general retailers and online platforms.
The company's advantage rests on its own-brand product, control over specification and its combined store and online model 1. If rivals expand their offer or pricing quickly, margin pressure could increase.
- General UK furniture and homewares retailers
Compete in the same textile and decorative categories, with a broader format and less own-brand weight.
- Specialist furniture chains
Compete mainly in furniture, where Dunelm's share is still small.
- Online homewares platforms
Compete on price and online convenience, a channel Dunelm keeps developing.
- General merchandise retailers with home sections
Compete on price and access to existing customers without specialising in homewares.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202514 Oct 2025
- Annual report 202415 Oct 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-06-28 (ESEF) · SEC / Dunelm Group plc · 28 Jun 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.