olivLaw · European equity research
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited GKP.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Gulf Keystone Petroleum is an operator that produces from the Shaikan Field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, one of the largest oil fields in the region. It matters now because exports resumed through the pipeline to Türkiye at the end of 2025, while production was shut in during February 2026 due to regional conflict. Detailed figures are set out in the sections below.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GKP.L) stock was 1.88 GBP (−1.46% on the day), with beta 0.22, 52-week range 1.63–2.32 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.88 – 2.24
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.01 · band width 17.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.00 / 1.90
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.00 / 0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.6% | −0.6% | −0.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.6% | −4.2% | +14.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.9% | +4.3% | −3.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +6.4% | +7.5% | −1.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +5.5% | +9.9% | −4.4 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +55.6% | +49.8% | +5.7 pp | +24.8% |
| 5 years | −8.3% | +42.8% | −51.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -11.5 m | 7.2 m | 15.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +111.4% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +113.4% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -14.1 m | 66.4 m | 29.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 78.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 479.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 646.1 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.64x
- ROE
- 3.1%
- ROA
- 2.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | 94.0 m | 138.9 m | 141.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 8.2 m | 20.5 m | 31.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | -13.0 m | 4.7 m | 15.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.8 m | 1.7 m | 2.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -11.4 m | 7.9 m | 14.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 111.0 k | 708.0 k | -468.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -11.5 m | 7.2 m | 15.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.23 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 81.7 m | 102.3 m | 78.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 15.1 m | 26.8 m | 125.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 9.9 m | 9.9 m | 7.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 106.7 m | 139.0 m | 211.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 445.8 m | 388.5 m | 349.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 697.1 m | 667.7 m | 646.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 109.4 m | 117.3 m | 128.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 114.6 m | 118.0 m | 128.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 149.9 m | 155.4 m | 167.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 547.2 m | 512.3 m | 479.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 217.8 m | 219.6 m | 217.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 51.3 m | 93.5 m | 63.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 65.4 m | 27.2 m | 33.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -14.1 m ≈ | 66.4 m ≈ | 29.8 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -63.9 m | -27.6 m | -33.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -25.3 m | -45.5 m | -54.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 24.8 m | 34.9 m | 49.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 10.1 m | 0 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.79 – 4.06 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E0.79 – 1.43 (Mid 1.02)18 companies used · median multiple 15.3x · quartiles 11.8x – 21.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APN.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)3.02 – 4.06 (Mid 3.46)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 196.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.6x | 94 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 70 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 167.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LIMITED (GKP.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 3.1%.
The estimated value range is 1.90–2.75 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 196.8%
- Interest coverage: 7.6x
- Current ratio: 1.6x
What contradicts it
- Payout ratio (FCF): 167.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GKP.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gulf Keystone Petroleum is an operator that produces from the Shaikan Field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, one of the largest oil fields in the region. It matters now because exports resumed through the pipeline to Türkiye at the end of 2025, while production was shut in during February 2026 due to regional conflict 1. Detailed figures are set out in the sections below.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large field with considerable estimated reserves and a production record since 2013, with operating costs described as low 1.
- A balance sheet with no debt and available cash at the start of 2026, offering flexibility in an uncertain environment 1.
- A long history of returning cash to shareholders, which points to financial discipline 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- A sustained restart of exports could narrow the discount to Brent and improve margins if payments continue 1.
- If the water handling project is completed, it could unlock additional output from constrained wells at PF-2 1.
- The 2C resources and the Triassic reservoir could offer long-term growth if development is approved 1.
Threats
- Regional tensions could delay the restart of production, as happened after the February 2026 shut-in 1.
- Litigation in Iraq over the validity of the contracts could affect the company's rights if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavourable 1.
- Reliance on the pipeline and government approvals exposes the company to political decisions it does not control 1.
Risks
- Production shut-in due to regional conflicthigh
The Shaikan Field was shut in as a precaution at the end of February 2026, and restarting depends on security 1.
- Continuity of exportshigh
The interim agreements expire soon, and payments depend on all parties adhering to them 1.
- Litigation over the PSCsmedium
The Iraqi Supreme Court ruling remains open and could challenge the validity of the contract 1.
- Concentration on one fieldmedium
The company depends entirely on Shaikan, so any technical or political problem affects the whole portfolio 1.
- Uncertainty over recovery of receivableslow
The outstanding payment for 2022-2023 is still being negotiated with regional authorities 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If exports remain stable and realised prices approach the Brent level, margins could rise significantly compared with the local sales period 1.
- A debt-free balance sheet and large reserves give room to keep returning cash to shareholders 1.
- Growth potential in the 2C resources and the water handling project could support long-term production 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the security situation worsens, production could stay shut in for longer, affecting revenue 1.
- Because the export agreements are interim, the final price and terms after their expiry remain uncertain 1.
- An unfavourable Iraqi Supreme Court decision could seriously affect contractual rights, and the company has no alternative asset 1.
What to watch
- Extension of the interim export agreements and completion of the independent consultant's reviewQ1 2026
- Restart of production and exports after the February 2026 shut-in, and updated guidance2026
- Final decision of the Iraqi Supreme Court on the validity of the PSCs2026
- Update of the field development plan and any resumption of development drillingnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company holds an 80% working interest in the Shaikan Field as operator, with partner MOL holding the remaining 20%; together they form the 'Shaikan Contractor', with rights set under a production sharing contract (PSC) awarded by the regional government in 2007 1. The field had internally estimated gross 2P reserves of 416 MMstb at year end 2025 and gross average production of 41,560 bopd in that year 1. The business model targets long-life production, field development and returning excess cash to shareholders, with no outstanding debt as at 18 March 2026 1.
The Shaikan Field consists of three fractured carbonate reservoirs, of which only the Jurassic has been produced so far, with relatively heavy crude 1. Infrastructure comprises two production facilities, PF-1 and PF-2, with dry oil processing capacity of around 60,000 bopd 1. The water handling project at PF-2, sanctioned in August 2025, is currently under review because of the regional security environment 1.
Export routing has been a major issue: the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline closed in March 2023 and sales were made locally at steep discounts to Brent 1. Exports restarted on 27 September 2025 under interim agreements, and the realised export price in 2025 was $50.5/bbl, a discount of $13.4/bbl to Dated Brent 1.
Segments
Shaikan Field production and operations
The main segment is production from the Shaikan Field, with gross average production of 41,560 bopd in 2025 and an estimated reserves life of around 27 years 1. This activity generates the company's revenue, and its value depends on processing capacity and export pace 1.
Development and resources
Gross 2C resources of 311 MMstb, partly in the lighter-oil Triassic reservoir, offer growth potential, but the estimate comes from an independent report dated December 2022 1. The updated development plan is expected to be broadly similar to the 2022 version, which targeted a plateau of 85,000 bopd, though no timetable has been confirmed 1.
Market context
The reference benchmark is Dated Brent, and the company's realised price has depended in recent years on the export route: in 2025 local sales carried discounts of about $27.6/bbl, while exports narrowed the discount to $13.4/bbl 1. The company notes it is still early to project the final discount, given limited cargo liftings and an ongoing review by an independent consultant 1.
The interim export agreements expire on 31 March 2026, and the company expects them to be extended to complete the consultant's review, which could influence 2026 revenue 1. Payment for the October 2022 to March 2023 period remains under discussion with the Ministry of Natural Resources 1.
Trends
- Resumption of pipeline exportstailwind
Exports resumed in September 2025, significantly improving realised prices compared with local sales 1. If the interim agreements are extended and payments continue, this could support the company's revenue.
- Regional tensions and production shut-inheadwind
The Shaikan Field was shut in as a precaution on 28 February 2026 after strikes in the region, and the company suspended its 2026 guidance 1. A restart depends on an improvement in security.
- Dependence on a single fieldmixed
The company remains dependent on one asset, the Shaikan Field, concentrating operational and export risk 1. Diversification is limited under the current contract.
- Litigation over the validity of the PSCsmixed
Rulings by the commercial and appeal courts in 2025 were favourable to the company, but the Iraqi Supreme Court ruling is still outstanding 1. The outcome could affect long-term contractual rights.
Competitive position
The sources do not name individual competitors; the company operates in an environment where other international oil companies (IOCs) in Kurdistan export through the same infrastructure and compete for pipeline access and government approvals 1. Its position is described as a low-cost operator relative to regional and international peers 1.
The company notes that, together with other IOCs in the region, it signed interim agreements with the regional and federal governments to restart exports 1. This collective setting directly shapes marketing terms.
- Other international oil companies (IOCs) in Kurdistan
Companies that export Kurdistan crude through the same pipeline and signed the same interim agreements; not named in the source.
- MOL
Partner in the Shaikan Contractor, holding 20% of the field and sharing production entitlements.
- Local truck operators and approved local buyers
Local buyers approved by the ministry, used during the local sales period of 2023-2025.
- Operators in other countries under production sharing contracts
Companies in regions such as Azerbaijan or Indonesia using similar contract structures, cited in the report as a general example.
News & filings
In the press
- Gulf Keystone Petroleum H1 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202315 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.