olivLaw · European equity research
Glencore plc GLEN.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Glencore is a diversified natural resources group combining industrial operations (mining and processing) with global marketing of metals, minerals and coal. The current stakes centre on the energy transition: a significant share of capital expenditure is directed to metals needed for the transition, while thermal coal demand is expected to decline gradually, according to the 2025 annual report.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Glencore plc (GLEN.L) stock was 4.97 GBP (−0.80% on the day), with beta 0.83, 52-week range 3.35–6.29 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 25.0
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.90 – 6.03
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 20.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.65 / 5.48
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.17 / -0.12
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.4% | −0.6% | −12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.2% | −4.2% | −8.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −12.0% | +4.3% | −16.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.2% | +7.5% | +14.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +39.6% | +9.9% | +29.7 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +12.4% | +49.8% | −37.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +40.6% | +42.8% | −2.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 217.8 bn | 230.9 bn | 247.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +6.0% | +7.2% |
| Net income | 4.3 bn | -1.6 bn | 363.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −138.2% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | -0.13 | 0.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −138.2% | unavailable |
| net % | 2.0% | -0.7% | 0.1% |
| Free cash flow | 6.6 bn | 4.4 bn | -290.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 27.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 24.0 bn USD
- Equity
- 33.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 142.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.80x
- Current ratio
- 1.06x
- ROE
- 1.0%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- -0.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 217.8 bn | 230.9 bn | 247.5 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 207.0 bn | 224.3 bn | 241.7 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 10.8 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 5.9 bn ≈ | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 5.4 bn | -998.0 m | 321.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 201.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 4.3 bn | -1.6 bn | 363.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | -0.13 | 0.03 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.13 | 0.10 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 18.4 bn | 17.8 bn | 23.8 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 31.6 bn | 29.6 bn | 32.9 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 64.0 bn | 59.5 bn | 67.0 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 39.2 bn | 50.2 bn | — | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Total assets | 123.9 bn | 130.5 bn | 142.2 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 29.3 bn | 29.0 bn | 35.6 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 21.3 bn | 25.3 bn | 27.0 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 49.5 bn | 49.7 bn | 63.1 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 38.2 bn | 35.7 bn | 33.6 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 12.6 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.1 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 11.0 bn | 10.1 bn | 5.6 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 4.5 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.9 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 6.6 bn ≈ | 4.4 bn ≈ | -290.0 m ≈ | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.6 bn | -11.7 bn | -4.2 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.5 bn | 2.1 bn | -984.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.7 bn | 230.0 m | 2.0 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.34 – 1.77 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.34 – 0.52 (Mid 0.43)17 companies used · median multiple 14.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 17.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)1.31 – 1.77 (Mid 1.51)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.1% | 26 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -79.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 22 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial22/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality13/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GLENCORE PLC (GLEN.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 247.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.2%; net margin 0.1%; ROE 0.9%.
The estimated value range is 0.83–1.14 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.1%
- FCF conversion: -79.9%
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GLEN.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Glencore is a diversified natural resources group combining industrial operations (mining and processing) with global marketing of metals, minerals and coal. The current stakes centre on the energy transition: a significant share of capital expenditure is directed to metals needed for the transition, while thermal coal demand is expected to decline gradually, according to the 2025 annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- An integrated portfolio linking extraction and marketing, which can support control over logistics and product quality 1.
- Investment directed towards metals needed for the energy transition, supporting long-term positioning 1.
- A risk management framework with compliance controls and internal audit for industrial activities 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Permits and licenceshigh
Obtaining and renewing approvals can be slow and difficult, and non-compliance could lead to delays and penalties 1.
- Energy transitionhigh
Lower coal demand could make some assets uneconomic and raise closure costs 1.
- Major projectsmedium
Cost overruns and delays could affect production guidance and project returns 1.
- Health, safety and environmenthigh
Industrial operations are inherently hazardous, and incidents could cause significant losses and reputational harm 1.
- Physical and operational risksmedium
Extreme weather could affect infrastructure, tailings facilities and production capacity 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for transition metals grows, the copper, cobalt and zinc portfolio could support revenue growth over the longer term 1.
- Integration between extraction and marketing could allow better management of logistics and commercial risk 1.
- Investment directed to transition-enabling assets could improve the group's growth profile 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Evolution of thermal coal demand and the pace of production cuts2026
- Timing and results of major projects and permitting processes2026
- Development of carbon pricing and border adjustment policies in Europe2027
- Climate transition plan due to be published2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Glencore runs two complementary pillars: industrial operations, which convert resources into product across the asset lifecycle from study and approval to closure, and marketing activities, which handle trading, logistics and physical product movements at global scale 1. The group relies on assets in Australia, Canada, Chile and South Africa, and on key customer markets in China, South Korea, Japan and Europe 1. A central part of the strategy is supporting the energy transition through metals such as copper, cobalt, zinc and nickel 1.
Segments
Industrial operations
Industrial assets convert resources into product and are exposed to geological risk, equipment reliability, energy costs and the availability of infrastructure such as power, water, transport corridors and ports 1. Some interests are not controlling stakes, and the group depends on partners whose positions may not always align with its own 1. About 55% of 2025 capital expenditure on industrial assets related to copper, cobalt, zinc, nickel and custom metallurgical assets 1.
Marketing activities
The marketing division manages high transaction volumes, logistics and physical product movements, which require strong coordination between commercial and operational functions 1. Risks include failures in trade capture, product quality and inventory management, as well as dependence on infrastructure access 1. The company applies reconciliation controls and handover checkpoints to limit these risks 1.
Thermal and metallurgical coal
The company has committed to reduce thermal coal production in line with its emissions reduction targets, and some coal assets could stop being economically viable as demand falls 1. Steelmaking coal is described as harder to replace in steel production than thermal coal, which makes the transition slower in that segment 1.
Market context
Demand for energy-transition metals (copper, nickel, cobalt) is expected to grow as renewable generation, electrification and AI-related infrastructure expand 1. By contrast, the source indicates that global coal demand could plateau and then decline towards 2030 1. Reference markets include Africa, Australia, Canada, Europe, Kazakhstan and South America 1.
Prices and demand are shaped by climate policy, carbon taxes and emissions trading systems, which could raise operating costs and change access to markets such as the European Union 1. Geopolitical and energy-security shifts add volatility to the coal market 1.
Trends
- Low-carbon economy transitiontailwind
Demand for metals used in renewable energy and electrification could grow, supporting the copper, cobalt and nickel portfolio 1.
- Declining coal demandheadwind
Thermal coal could lose share of primary energy, which could make some assets unprofitable and lead to impairments 1.
- Carbon pricing and border measuresmixed
Carbon pricing and import levies, such as the European carbon border mechanism, could affect export markets and delivery costs 1.
- Physical climate risksheadwind
Extreme weather, flooding and drought could affect production, infrastructure and tailings facilities, and some sites are in water-stressed areas 1.
Competitive position
Glencore operates in a sector where rivals include other large diversified metals and minerals producers and commodity traders; the source does not name specific competitors, so direct comparisons cannot be confirmed from the text 1. The stated advantage is vertical integration between extraction and marketing 1.
Competitive pressure could increase if coal demand falls faster than expected or if climate policy favours other suppliers of transition metals 1.
- Large diversified metals producers (unnamed in source)
The source does not identify named competitors; this entry is generic and cannot be checked against the text.
- Global commodity traders (unnamed in source)
The source mentions marketing activity but does not name counterparties or direct rivals.
- Copper and nickel producers (unnamed in source)
Competition in transition metals is not detailed in the source, so no quantitative comparison is possible.
- Coal producers (unnamed in source)
The source describes the coal market as dynamic without naming competitors.
News & filings
In the press
- Glencore Set for Sydney Debut in Test of Mining Giant’s AllureBloomberg Markets · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Glencore Says Trading Profits Will Top $5 Billion This YearBloomberg Markets · 02 Oct 2026 · EN
- Glencore, Peabody and Heeney Mull Coal Deals in VenezuelaBloomberg Markets · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- Glencore Joins Project Vault With $500 Million Cobalt CommitmentOil Price · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Previziuni pentru principalele acțiuni FTSE 100: Vodafone, Lloyds Bank, Rolls-Royce, Glencore - InvezzSurge — Google News · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Radiant World sent Mizuho fake Glencore email, court filing saysThe Japan Times · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Radiant World Sent Mizuho Fake Glencore Email, Court Filing SaysBloomberg Markets · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Glencore Allowed to Pursue $230 Million Case Against UK’s PraxBloomberg Markets · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Inside Jefferies’ Months-Long Tussle With Glencore Over RadiantBloomberg Markets · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Suspended Glencore Executive Told Radiant ‘Say Nothing on Email’Bloomberg Markets · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Radiant World Group Sues Glencore For $2 Billion, Executive SaysBloomberg Markets · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Glencore Says Radiant World Sent Falsified Invoices to LendersBloomberg Markets · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Glencore’s former head of oil pleads not guilty to bribery chargesThe Guardian World · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Glencore Took $480 Million Provision on Radiant World ExposureBloomberg Markets · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Radiant World Leaves Top Banks, Glencore Probing Fake InvoicesBloomberg Markets · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Glencore Backed Radiant World With Warrants Deal in Late 2025Bloomberg Markets · 17 Aug 2026 · EN
- Korea Eximbank to Lend $1 Billion to Glencore for Copper SupplyBloomberg Markets · 17 Aug 2026 · EN
- Glencore Consortium Offers Rival Bid for Troubled Canadian MinerBloomberg Markets · 10 Aug 2026 · EN
- Mining Giant Glencore Looks Beyond London With Secondary ASX ListingOil Price · 06 Aug 2026 · EN
- Glencore Eyes Australia Listing to Tap $3.1 Trillion Pension PotBloomberg Markets · 06 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202418 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Glencore plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.