olivLaw · European equity research
Grainger plc GRI.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Grainger plc is the largest UK residential landlord focused on energy efficient rental homes and build to rent developments. The company faces tightening energy efficiency requirements and cost pressures, while the market value of its property portfolio reached 3665.3 million pounds sterling in fiscal 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Grainger plc (GRI.L) stock was 1.87 GBP (+0.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.4 bn GBP, P/E 6.8 on diluted EPS of 0.27 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.21%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 1.50–1.99 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.64 – 1.91
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.83 · band width 15.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.71 / 1.72
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.04 / 0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.5% | −0.6% | +13.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.4% | −4.2% | +11.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +15.8% | +4.3% | +11.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.5% | +7.5% | −5.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.3% | +9.9% | −12.2 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −24.9% | +49.8% | −74.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −40.7% | +42.8% | −83.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.1, median 58.5, max 66.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 267.1 m | 290.1 m | 262.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +8.6% | −9.4% |
| Net income | 25.6 m | 31.2 m | 202.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +21.9% | +549.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +20.0% | +550.0% |
| net % | 9.6% | 10.8% | 77.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 85.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 1.5 bn GBP
- Equity
- 2.0 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 3.8 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.78x
- Current ratio
- 2.71x
- ROE
- 10.3%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 267.1 m | 290.1 m | 262.7 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Operating income | 128.4 m | 119.1 m | 128.0 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 34.0 m | 41.8 m | 45.4 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 27.4 m | 40.6 m | 102.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.8 m | 9.4 m | 23.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | 25.6 m | 31.2 m | 202.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.27 | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | esef· 21 Jul 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 121.0 m | 93.2 m | 85.8 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Receivables | 34.0 m | 90.9 m | 79.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Inventories | 392.2 m | 331.6 m | 298.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Current assets | 592.5 m | 572.2 m | 548.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 8.6 m | 10.6 m | 9.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 120.7 m | 114.1 m | 115.3 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 75.0 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 129.9 m | 127.3 m | 202.3 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 731.4 m | 742.9 m | 739.4 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 184.7 m | 136.6 m | 122.4 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -274.1 m | -167.7 m | -59.1 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 114.5 m | 3.3 m | -70.7 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 45.7 m | 51.0 m | 58.1 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.9 m | 100.0 k | 100.0 k | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.4 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 2.8% | 17 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 77.1% | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.8x | 89 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.2% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet52/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality48/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial60/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial89/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRAINGER PLC (GRI.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 262.7 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth -9.4%; net margin 77.1%; ROE 10.3%.
The estimated value range is 1.93–2.85 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.40 GBP, the price of 1.87 GBP leaves a potential of 28.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 22.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 77.1%
- Current ratio: 2.7x
- P/E (TTM): 6.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 2.8%
- Interest coverage: 2.8x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| GRI.LGrainger PLC | 1.4 bn | 6.8 | 10.3% | 77.1% | −9.4% | +1% / −26% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GRI.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.00 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 1.78 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 2.70 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 0.80 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 1.61 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 2.70 Total return 59% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 0.63 Total return -54% · Per year -14% | 1.45 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 2.70 Total return 69% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 0.40
- Net margin± 0.28
- Annual revenue growth± 0.25
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Grainger plc is the largest UK residential landlord focused on energy efficient rental homes and build to rent developments. The company faces tightening energy efficiency requirements and cost pressures, while the market value of its property portfolio reached 3665.3 million pounds sterling in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large rental portfolio with a focus on energy efficiency and the urban cluster strategy described in the report 1.
- A net zero transition plan built into governance, with committees reviewing climate risks at least twice a year 1.
- An asset management strategy focused on customer satisfaction and retention, described as well placed for future requirements 1.
Weaknesses
- Significant capital expenditure is needed to refurbish PRS properties to meet energy standards 1.
- External valuations do not yet reflect the energy performance of assets, according to the report, which could leave the value of investments understated 1.
- The BTR portfolio's concentration in exposed urban locations means flood and windstorm events could affect several customers at once 1.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for energy efficient homes could allow higher rents and new developments with stronger demand 1.
- Better access to capital from responsible investors, supported by the company's sustainable finance framework 1.
- Repositioning long-term hold assets to meet future demand for energy efficient and climate resilient properties 1.
Threats
- Tighter energy efficiency standards could turn some assets into stranded assets if they are not upgraded in time 1.
- Rising energy costs and energy security problems could weigh on margins and operating costs 1.
- Physical climate risks such as heat stress and drought could become more important after 2050 in high emissions scenarios 1.
Risks
- Stranded assets from energy standardshigh
Properties that do not meet minimum energy efficiency standards could become hard to let or sell 1.
- Refurbishment and capital costshigh
Investment needed for energy efficiency and heating decarbonisation could exceed current estimates if government policy changes 1.
- Flood and windstorm exposuremedium
Many assets sit in urban areas exposed to flooding, and a major event could affect several properties in the same cluster at once 1.
- Valuations not reflecting energy performancemedium
If external valuers do not soon incorporate energy performance, the book value of properties could be unclear to investors 1.
- Investor sentiment on climate issueslow
Investor responses to climate related issues could affect the attractiveness of the company as a destination for capital 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If tenant demand for efficient homes grows, the energy efficient portfolio could generate higher rents and better retention 1.
- Recycling non-core assets and investing in new energy efficient homes could improve total property return over time 1.
- Access to capital from responsible investors, combined with climate governance, could support funding of the transition plan 1.
What would break the thesis
- If efficiency standards tighten faster than the company's plan, refurbishment costs could rise significantly 1.
- External valuations do not yet reflect energy performance, which could mean the value of investments is not fully recognised 1.
- Physical risks such as flooding and heat stress could affect more urban properties over the longer term 1.
What to watch
- Trend in the market value of properties and the LTV ratioAnnual report 2026
- Progress towards an EPC C rating for all PRS properties2027
- Pace of gas boiler replacement with heat pumps and the related costs2030
- Updates to the net zero transition plan and government heating policynext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Grainger invests in high quality, energy efficient rental homes which it plans to hold for the long term, according to its business model 1. Activities include development, acquisition, refurbishment and asset recycling, and the company describes its strategy as growth through new development and acquisition of stabilised assets 1. At 30 September 2025 the market value of properties was 3665.3 million pounds sterling and the loan to value ratio was 38.4% 1.
The annual report for the year ended 30 September 2025 shows that climate risk management is integrated into executive and oversight committees, including the Investment Committee and the Development Board 1. The company has published a net zero transition plan based on the UK target of a net zero economy by 2050 1.
According to the report, non-core assets are mainly those the company intends to sell, and transition risks affect in particular the private rented sector (PRS) portfolio 1.
Segments
Build to rent (BTR) homes
The BTR portfolio is described as the main growth driver, with opportunities linked to demand for energy efficient and heat resilient properties 1. Physical risks are concentrated here, because the scale of the buildings and the cluster strategy could mean that a major flood event affects several customers at once 1.
Private rented sector (PRS) homes
The PRS portfolio is the main source of transition risk, because assets will need capital expenditure to meet higher energy efficiency standards and to decarbonise heating 1. The company has set a dedicated budget to achieve an EPC C rating or above on all PRS properties 1.
Development and asset recycling
Residential development and sales of non-core assets complement the rental portfolio, and the company says new projects are designed for high energy efficiency and fossil-fuel free heating 1.
Market context
The report states that renters spend on average 8% of their rent on energy bills, according to data published by Hamptons, and the company estimates that customers could accept a rental uplift of 5% for a more efficient property 1. The UK rental market is therefore sensitive to energy costs and efficiency standards.
The company says it has not so far seen climate factors drive tenants' choice of where to rent, but customer interest in this area is increasing 1. Total property return (TPR) was 3.9% in fiscal 2025, compared with 1.9% in the prior year 1.
Trends
- Minimum energy efficiency standardsheadwind
Tighter minimum energy efficiency standards could require extra refurbishment spending on existing properties, and assets that do not meet the requirements could become stranded 1.
- Demand for energy efficient homestailwind
If tenants give growing weight to energy costs when choosing a home, efficient properties could generate higher rental income 1.
- Decarbonisation of heating and the power gridmixed
The transition plan depends on the pace of decarbonisation of the UK electricity grid and on government policy on heat pumps, and changes in these policies could shift the investment timeline 1.
- Physical climate risksheadwind
Flooding, windstorms and heat stress could affect more urban properties, and scenario analysis shows exposure rising over the longer term in high emissions scenarios 1.
Competitive position
The report does not name competitors in the source provided, so this section is limited to the UK rental housing market context described in the document 1. The company differentiates itself through its focus on energy efficient properties and its cluster strategy in urban areas 1.
The competitive advantage described in the report rests on energy focused asset management and customer satisfaction, which could support tenant retention if demand for such properties grows 1.
- Other UK residential landlords and build to rent developers
The source does not name competitors, so the comparison stays at market level and cannot be verified from the document.
- Private PRS operators
The source mentions the PRS portfolio but does not identify specific competing firms.
- Institutional investors in build to rent
The source refers to responsible investors as a source of capital without naming any entities.
- UK residential developers
The source links development to demand for efficient homes without naming competitors.
News & filings
In the press
- THE GRAINGER PROJECT @ The Pub Universitatii - Zile și NopțiSurge — Google News · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- Is W.W. Grainger Stock Outperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting W.W. Grainger Stock Will Climb or Sink?Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Navigating W.W. Grainger’s (GWW) New Competitive LandscapeYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Jul 2026
- Annual report 202521 Jul 2026
- Annual report 202426 Nov 2024
- Annual report 202426 Nov 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Grainger plc · 30 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.