olivLaw · European equity research
Molten Ventures plc GROW.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BY7QYJ50 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Molten Ventures plc is a London-listed venture capital investor backing growth technology companies in Europe and beyond. Its Gross Portfolio Value stood at 1.5 billion pounds, and the company says AI is an accelerant to its strategy rather than a threat. Realisations in fiscal 2026 equalled 9% of opening GPV, close to its 10% target.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Molten Ventures plc (GROW.L) stock was 6.52 GBP (−5.72% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn GBP, P/E 9.4 on diluted EPS of 0.69 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 1.14, 52-week range 4.04–7.09 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.41 – 7.11
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 10.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.77 / 5.83
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.5% | −0.6% | −3.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.8% | −4.2% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.4% | +4.3% | +6.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +29.1% | +7.5% | +21.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +40.3% | +9.9% | +30.4 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +153.9% | +49.8% | +104.1 pp | +24.8% |
| 5 years | −35.9% | +42.8% | −78.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 6.6, median 6.6, max 6.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -40.6 m | -800.0 k | 120.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -22.0 m | 33.5 m | 10.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 51.7 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 1.3 bn GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.36x
- ROE
- 9.4%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -39.2 m | 10.0 m | 131.7 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 400.0 k | 300.0 k | 500.0 k | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -38.8 m ≈ | 10.3 m ≈ | 132.2 m ≈ | esef· 25 Jun 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 11.2 m | 12.7 m | 12.2 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -49.8 m | 200.0 k | 121.6 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | -9.2 m | 1.0 m | 1.3 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | -40.6 m | -800.0 k | 120.3 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.69 | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 57.0 m | 89.0 m | 51.7 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.6 m | 1.9 m | 4.1 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 58.6 m | 90.9 m | 55.8 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 100.0 k | 1.8 m | 1.5 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 9.1 m | 13.1 m | 13.2 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.1 m | 13.4 m | 23.6 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 193.3 m | — | 174.3 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -22.0 m | 33.9 m | 10.5 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 0 | 400.0 k | 200.0 k | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -22.0 m ≈ | 33.5 m ≈ | 10.3 m ≈ | esef· 25 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 12.0 m | -400.0 k | -200.0 k | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 44.3 m | -1.7 m | -47.6 m | esef· 25 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 8.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.4x | 84 (vs peers) | 29% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.9% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation52/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MOLTEN VENTURES PLC (GROW.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 9.4%.
The estimated value range is 8.17–14.80 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.58 GBP, the price of 6.51 GBP leaves a potential of 62.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 38.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 10.8x
- Current ratio: 2.4x
- P/E (TTM): 9.4x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 8.6%
- FCF yield: 0.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GROW.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Molten Ventures plc is a London-listed venture capital investor backing growth technology companies in Europe and beyond. Its Gross Portfolio Value stood at 1.5 billion pounds, and the company says AI is an accelerant to its strategy rather than a threat. Realisations in fiscal 2026 equalled 9% of opening GPV, close to its 10% target.
SWOT
Strengths
- The portfolio is diversified across several sectors and themes, and a significant share of value sits in mature companies in the Core portfolio.
- The company reports realisations at or above carrying value in several cases, indicating that valuation discipline has been applied.
- Exposure to the infrastructure layer of technology themes could offer a more resilient position across cycles.
Weaknesses
- Some exits were below cost, showing that not all investments are profitable.
- Dependence on a few large holdings could amplify the impact of a negative development at a single company.
- Portfolio values are estimated at fair value, which introduces uncertainty into the valuation.
Opportunities
- European budgets for space and defence could create demand for portfolio companies.
- Rising domestic institutional participation in growth capital could facilitate exits through listings.
- If AI lowers the cost of product development, some portfolio companies could expand their offering faster.
Threats
- A deterioration in listing markets or in strategic buyer interest could delay exits.
- AI could erode the value of companies whose offering is easy to replicate.
- Policy or regulatory changes could affect companies in sensitive sectors.
Risks
- Valuation riskhigh
The fair value of unlisted holdings could be revised downward, which would affect the reported net asset value.
- Exit riskhigh
If capital markets or strategic buyers withdraw, planned exits could be postponed or achieved at lower values.
- Concentration in a few holdingsmedium
The Core portfolio concentrates a large share of value, so problems at a few companies could have a material impact.
- AI-related technology riskmedium
Some portfolio companies could suffer from automation, particularly those with products that are easy to replicate.
- Currency risklow
The portfolio has exposures in several currencies, and exchange-rate movements could change the value reported in pounds.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the shift toward AI and demand for digital infrastructure continue, portfolio companies could grow faster than the market.
- If listing exits recover, the company could realise strong values on a few mature Core holdings.
- If European budgets for space and defence translate into contracts, companies such as ICEYE could expand considerably.
What would break the thesis
- If capital markets stay closed, exits could be postponed and realised value could fall below reported value.
- If AI erodes the business models of some portfolio companies, valuations could be revised downward.
- If some large investments fail to meet their plans, the impact could be significant given the portfolio's concentration.
What to watch
- Realisation results and exit levels against the 10% of GPV targetnext annual report
- Fair value movements in the largest Core holdings2027
- Contracts and revenue of space and defence portfolio companies2027
- Impact of IFRS 18 on the company's financial presentationfrom 1 January 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Molten Ventures is a listed company building its portfolio across four core sectors: Enterprise, Hardware and Deeptech, Consumer Technology and Digital Health, with thematic exposure to fintech, cybersecurity, quantum, energy and climate, and spacetech. Gross Portfolio Value was 1.5 billion pounds at 31 March 2026, and the Core portfolio accounts for 64% of fair value. The company targets annual realisations of around 10% of opening GPV and achieved 9% in fiscal 2026, with proceeds of 119.6 million pounds.
The business model relies on direct investments and fund investments made by in-house deal teams. Exits typically occur five to ten years after investment, through private placements, listings, trade sales or distributions from funds. Because the company considers itself an investment entity, it measures its portfolio at fair value and reports these values to shareholders.
The Core portfolio comprises 17 more mature companies with an average age of 11 years and an average holding period of 5 years, while the Emerging portfolio represents about 15% of GPV. This structure points to concentration in a few large holdings alongside a younger base of companies still scaling.
Segments
Core portfolio
The Core portfolio includes 17 companies representing 64% of Gross Portfolio Value, with fair value of about 975 million pounds at 31 March 2026. The company reports an average gross margin of 70% for 2025, excluding pre-revenue companies.
Emerging portfolio
The Emerging portfolio is younger and represents about 15% of GPV. It includes newer companies such as General Index and MAIA Technology and targets areas such as digital health and the energy transition.
Fund investments and secondaries
Fund investments and secondary transactions form a separate part of the assets, and the company generated additional proceeds from these lines in fiscal 2026. They add diversification but also a component less directly controllable by the deal team.
Market context
The company operates in the European venture capital market for technology, where growth financing and exits via listing or trade sale depend on the market cycle. Fiscal 2026 results are shaped by demand, the availability of capital and valuation dynamics across the portfolio.
Management points to growing addressable markets in segments such as healthtech and the energy transition over 2026 to 2030. If these estimates hold, the portfolio could benefit from expansion in the targeted sectors.
Trends
- AI as accelerator or threatmixed
The company argues that AI amplifies its strategies, since most holdings could benefit from AI while a smaller part could face headwinds. The assessment remains management's own, and actual results will show whether the assumptions hold.
- European sovereignty and spacetailwind
Investment in defence, energy and technology across Europe, and the expanded budget of the European Space Agency, could support companies such as ICEYE and ISAR Aerospace. This is a structural tailwind, but it depends on the execution of public contracts.
- Exit cycleheadwind
Exits depend on capital markets and the availability of strategic buyers. Realisations in fiscal 2026 came close to target, but some exits were below cost, which shows sensitivity to pricing.
- Capital policy and institutional investorsmixed
Initiatives in the UK, such as the Mansion House Accord, aim to raise domestic institutional participation in growth capital. The effect on capital raising could be favourable, but it remains uncertain in the short term.
Competitive position
Molten competes with other venture and growth investors targeting European and British technology companies, as well as with funds that buy secondary stakes. Competition for good deals and attractive exits can influence returns.
The company's differentiation rests on a portfolio approach, with allocations to the infrastructure layer of technology themes and a mix of direct investments and funds. This does not guarantee superior performance, but it may reduce dependence on a single winner.
- European venture capital investors
Venture and growth funds investing in the same technology sectors in Europe and the United Kingdom.
- Growth funds active in secondary transactions
Investors buying stakes from other shareholders and competing for the same quality assets.
- Corporate venture investors
Large companies investing directly in start-ups to access strategic technologies.
- Private market investment platforms
Investment vehicles offering exposure to private companies and competing for investor capital.
News & filings
In the press
- Fluorine-Mediated Molten-Salt Crystallization Regulates Phase Evolution and Structural Stability in Sodium Layered OxidesJournal of the American Chemical Society · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- Redox Buffering and Corrosion in Molten Chloride Salts Dictated by ChlorobasicityJournal of the American Chemical Society · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- China bets on molten salt and CO2 to help meet its power needsSouth China Morning Post — China · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Redox Reactions in Molten Indium Halide Salts Enable the Synthesis and Shape Control of In-Pnictide NanocrystalsJournal of the American Chemical Society · 29 Sept 2026 · EN
- China breaks ground on the world’s first supercritical CO2 and molten salt energy plantSouth China Morning Post — China · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Blue-Emitting Colloidal In1– x Ga x P Quantum Dots Synthesized in Molten Salt: Toward Blue QLEDs with Improved StabilityJournal of the American Chemical Society · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Revolut backer Molten Ventures hits £175M first close of growth fundTech.eu · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- China Races to Finish Molten-Salt Solar Plant as Stocks WhipsawOil Price · 13 Aug 2026 · EN
- Molten Salt Reactors Just Cleared A Major U.S. Regulatory HurdleOil Price · 26 Jul 2026 · EN
- Molten salt and human sweat: the weird batteries that could store renewable energyThe Guardian World · 19 Jul 2026 · RO
- Korea's molten salt nuclear-powered container ship design wins US approvalKorea Times — Business · 16 Jul 2026 · RO
- America's Answer to China's Molten Salt ReactorOil Price · 09 Jul 2026 · EN
- Molten Salt Reactors Move Closer to Reality After Breakthrough at U.S. LabOil Price · 17 May 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202625 Jun 2026
- Annual report 202517 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Molten Ventures plc · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.