olivLaw · European equity research
Harbour Energy plc HBR.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BMBVGQ36 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Harbour Energy is a British hydrocarbon producer with assets in Europe and, after the LLOG acquisition completed in February 2026, in the US Gulf of America. The acquisition for 3.2 billion USD extends its geographic footprint and diversifies its portfolio, at a time when price pressure and physical security risks are becoming more pronounced.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Harbour Energy plc (HBR.L) stock was 2.68 GBP (−4.29% on the day), with beta -0.21, 52-week range 1.86–3.19 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.75 – 3.14
- below the lower band · %B -0.17 · band width 13.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.79 / 2.63
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.06
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.0% | −4.2% | +14.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.5% | +4.3% | −8.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +36.3% | +7.5% | +28.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.3% | +9.9% | +6.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +12.0% | +49.8% | −37.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −25.1% | +42.8% | −67.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.7 bn | 6.2 bn | 10.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +65.8% | +63.9% |
| Net income | 45.0 m | -108.0 m | -263.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −340.0% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 1.2% | -1.8% | -2.6% |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn | 731.0 m | 2.0 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 846.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 4.9 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 6.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 29.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.79x
- Current ratio
- 1.04x
- ROE
- -4.2%
- ROA
- -0.9%
- FCF margin
- 19.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.7 bn | 6.2 bn | 10.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 932.0 m | 1.6 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 420.0 m | 602.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 616.0 m | 1.2 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 571.0 m | 1.3 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 45.0 m | -108.0 m | -263.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 13.19 | — | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 286.0 m | 805.0 m | 846.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 873.0 m | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 217.0 m | 368.0 m | 398.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.8 bn | 14.6 bn | 13.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.9 bn | 30.3 bn | 29.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 915.0 m | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 493.0 m | 4.2 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 8.4 bn | 24.0 bn | 22.9 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 496.0 m | 884.0 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn ≈ | 731.0 m ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -693.0 m | -2.3 bn | -1.8 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | -1.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 190.0 m | 199.0 m | 455.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 249.0 m | 0 | 90.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 173.33 – 233.10 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)173.33 – 233.10 (Mid 198.82)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 29.4% | 79 (vs peers) | 33% |
| Net margin · Quality | -2.6% | 26 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 24 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 23.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HARBOUR ENERGY PLC (HBR.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 10.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 63.9%; net margin -2.6%; ROE -5.9%.
The estimated value range is 173.33–233.10 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 29.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 23.3%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -2.6%
- Interest coverage: 3.0x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HBR.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Harbour Energy is a British hydrocarbon producer with assets in Europe and, after the LLOG acquisition completed in February 2026, in the US Gulf of America. The acquisition for 3.2 billion USD 1 extends its geographic footprint and diversifies its portfolio, at a time when price pressure and physical security risks are becoming more pronounced.
SWOT
Strengths
- A geographically diversified portfolio after recent acquisitions and a maintained investment grade credit rating, according to the company 1.
- Formal financial discipline, with a capital framework approved by the board and stress-tested budgets 1.
- Integrated production and CO2 capture capabilities that could support energy transition projects 1.
Weaknesses
- Significant debt after acquisitions, with bridge and term loans and bonds that will need to be refinanced over time 1.
- Ageing assets that require intensive inspection and maintenance, which can affect operational performance 1.
- Reliance on non-operated partners and third-party infrastructure, where the company's influence is limited 1.
Opportunities
Threats
- Volatile or prolonged low prices could reduce cash flow and shareholder distributions 1.
- Coordinated threats to European energy infrastructure raise the risk of physical security incidents 1.
- German court rulings on operating permits could affect production if the appeal does not favour the company 1.
Risks
- Major accident or physical security incidenthigh
An accident or attack on facilities could cause injury, environmental damage and production disruption, with fines and regulatory sanctions for directors 1.
- Commodity priceshigh
Weakening fundamentals and higher volatility could reduce cash flow, although hedging partly mitigates the effects 1.
- Mittelplate permit litigationmedium
The first-instance court decision that the operating permit is invalid during the main proceedings could affect production if the appeal does not change the position 1.
- Acquisition integration and talentmedium
Integrating the former Wintershall Dea and LLOG teams could delay plans and affect talent retention 1.
- Cyber securitymedium
Cyber threats, including AI-assisted phishing and social engineering, are growing in volume and sophistication and could interrupt operations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the LLOG integration proceeds as planned, the company could gain a diversified US production base and a more balanced risk profile 1.
- Maintaining an investment grade rating and undrawn credit facilities could provide flexibility during periods of weak prices 1.
- CCS assets could become a revenue source in the energy transition if commercial and regulatory frameworks stabilise 1.
What would break the thesis
- Higher debt after acquisitions could limit investment capacity and dividend distributions if prices stay low 1.
- Physical security risks and permit litigation could interrupt European production, with unplanned costs 1.
- Ageing assets and reliance on third parties could lead to cost overruns or delays in capital projects 1.
What to watch
- Finalisation of LLOG acquisition accounting and fair values of acquired assets2026
- Appellate court decision on the Mittelplate operating permit2026
- Completion and financing of the Waldorf transactionQ2 2026
- Liquidity and covenant compliance against the 3.5x net debt to EBITDAX ceiling2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company states its purpose as meeting the world's energy needs through the safe, efficient and responsible production of hydrocarbons, guided by four strategic drivers: safe and responsible, scale and diversity, high quality and resilient, and financial discipline 1. Harbour has integrated the former Wintershall Dea assets and has built a position in carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Europe and the UK 1.
Core financing rests on a 3.0 billion USD revolving credit facility, 5.3 billion USD of bonds and subordinated notes, and the company says it maintains an investment grade credit rating 1. The going concern assessment covers the period to 31 December 2027, with liquidity headroom forecast at 2.7 billion USD at the end of 2027 1.
The Waldorf transaction, announced in December 2025, is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2026 and is planned to be financed from existing debt facilities 1. Management expects the enlarged portfolio to remain robust, though each acquisition depends on team integration and execution of capital projects 1.
Segments
European hydrocarbon production
The core business includes fields and facilities in the North Sea and Germany, where the operating permit for the Mittelplate field is being challenged in court; Harbour continues operations while the appeal is decided 1.
US Gulf of America through LLOG
The LLOG acquisition brought the company into the Gulf of America, a new segment for Harbour; accounting for the acquisition was not finalised when the financial statements were authorised, so fair values of assets remain provisional 1.
Carbon capture and storage
Harbour created a dedicated CCS business unit to develop commercial frameworks for these assets and to manage their specific risks, which it sees as part of the energy transition 1.
Market context
The hydrocarbon market depends on global supply and demand, and the company notes that prices may decline for extended periods or become more volatile, affecting available cash flow 1. The company's sensitivity scenarios treat a 20 per cent fall in Brent, UK gas and TTF prices as a severe but plausible downside 1.
Physical security risks have increased in Europe due to coordinated threats to oil and gas infrastructure, while supply chain inflationary pressures are easing, offset by geopolitical fragmentation 1.
Trends
- More volatile energy pricesheadwind
Rising volatility and weakening market fundamentals have increased the company's commodity price risk level, which could reduce cash flow if prices stay low for a long period 1.
- Scaling up in the US through LLOGtailwind
Entry into the Gulf of America diversifies the portfolio and reduces geographic concentration, which could support resilience if integration proceeds as planned 1.
- Energy transition and CCSmixed
Decarbonisation constraints and reporting requirements could limit access to capital, but CCS assets open a diversification opportunity if the commercial framework develops 1.
- Security and regulatory pressureheadwind
Cyber and physical threats are rising, and fiscal and environmental frameworks may change in operating countries, which could affect projects or new investment 1.
Competitive position
Harbour competes with other independent hydrocarbon producers operating in the North Sea and the Gulf of America. The company says it can allocate capital globally but does not explicitly name competitors in the sources provided 1.
The stated advantage lies in combining production capabilities with CO2 capture and storage and in securing supply through partnerships; these advantages could matter more if the market reshapes its investment 1.
- Other independent hydrocarbon producers in the Gulf of America
Competition for assets and personnel in the LLOG operating area, not detailed in the sources provided.
- North Sea operators
Competition for licences and infrastructure contracts in north-west Europe.
- Integrated major energy companies
Competition for capital, personnel and energy transition projects, with no comparative data in the source.
- Well and facilities service providers
Shared dependence on contractors and supply chains that influence project costs.
News & filings
In the press
- How a US$110 million fishing harbour in Tanzania serves China’s food and security goalsSouth China Morning Post — China · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- How a US$110 million fishing harbour in Tanzania serves China’s food and security goalsSouth China Morning Post — China · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Sydney Harbour cruise spotters : inside Australia niche hobby | Redland City BulletinSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Sydney Harbour cruise spotters : inside Australia niche hobby | The RuralSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Sydney Harbour cruise spotters : inside Australia niche hobby | Illawarra MercurySurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Sydney Harbour cruise spotters : inside Australia niche hobby | Merimbula News WeeklySurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Canada is a 'safe harbour' for global finance, Carney saysBBC World News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Bitter Harbour: The Fall of Mocha and the Remaking of the Red Sea OrderModern Diplomacy · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Albo’s problems on two oceans, and disaster in Secret HarbourPolitico EU · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- One Nation’s Secret Harbour byelection win shows Labor is at a loss when it comes to calming angry voters | AnalysisThe Guardian World · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- One Nation claims victory on Secret Harbour byelection in Western AustraliaThe Guardian World · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Russian authorities report "hundreds of drones" attacking Krasnodar Krai, fires at port and naval harbour – photos, videoUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 12 Aug 2026 · EN
- 'Every millimetre counts': Inside the beast tunnelling under Sydney HarbourHacker News · 10 Aug 2026 · EN
- Australia news live: new Sydney Harbour pool slated to open in summer; AusAlert warning test to blare siren across phones nationallyThe Guardian World · 26 Jul 2026 · RO
- David Harbour on Lily Allen’s West End Girl album: ‘It wasn’t my experience’The Guardian World · 10 Jun 2026 · RO
- NATO chief arrives in Kyiv as Ukraine strikes St. Petersburg harbourEuractiv · 03 Jun 2026 · RO
- Vivid Sydney cancels all drone shows after 83 drones plunged into Darling HarbourThe Guardian World · 30 May 2026 · RO
- Vivid Sydney drone shows cancelled for now after malfunction saw 89 drones fall into the harbourReddit r/worldnews (top day) · 26 May 2026 · RO
- Dozens of drones crash into Sydney harbour after light show glitchBBC World News · 26 May 2026 · EN
- Vivid Sydney cancels shows after 89 drones plunge into Darling HarbourThe Guardian World · 26 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Harbour Energy plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.