olivLaw · European equity research
Hill & Smith PLC HILS.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0004270301 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Hill & Smith PLC is a British industrial group operating as a decentralised structure of operating companies active in infrastructure and the built environment. Its 2025 annual report shows the group depends on multi-year government spending for US infrastructure, a factor that matters for its outlook now.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Hill & Smith PLC (HILS.L) stock was 28.15 GBP (−2.26% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.3 bn GBP, P/E 27.7 on diluted EPS of 1.02 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.74%, beta 0.96, 52-week range 20.50–33.20 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 28.38 – 31.27
- below the lower band · %B -0.08 · band width 9.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 30.16 / 26.88
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.38 / -0.25
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.5% | −0.6% | −12.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.9% | −4.2% | −4.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.5% | +4.3% | +4.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.5% | +7.5% | +24.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +28.5% | +9.9% | +18.6 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +64.8% | +49.8% | +15.0 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +56.4% | +42.8% | +13.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 19.9, median 21.1, max 22.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 829.8 m | 855.1 m | 868.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.0% | +1.6% |
| Net income | 68.8 m | 76.4 m | 82.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +11.0% | +8.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +10.5% | +8.2% |
| net % | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% |
| Free cash flow | 102.5 m | 107.7 m | 106.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 70.4 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 81.3 m GBP
- Net debt
- 10.9 m GBP
- Equity
- 475.0 m GBP
- Total assets
- 761.9 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.17x
- Current ratio
- 1.85x
- ROE
- 17.4%
- ROA
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 12.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 829.8 m | 855.1 m | 868.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 513.1 m | 513.3 m | 515.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 316.7 m | 341.8 m | 353.5 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 103.8 m | 115.4 m | 120.1 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 11.1 m | 11.4 m | 9.6 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 93.2 m | 104.5 m | 111.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 24.4 m | 28.1 m | 28.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 68.8 m | 76.4 m | 82.5 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 0.94 | 1.02 | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.49 | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 34.4 m | 55.0 m | 70.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 137.3 m | 162.5 m | 161.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 106.1 m | 100.1 m | 97.2 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 281.1 m | 331.6 m | 331.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 184.4 m | 185.1 m | 185.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 715.0 m | 796.0 m | 761.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 119.6 m | 133.5 m | 129.6 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.4 m | 800.0 k | 26.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 97.7 m | 98.7 m | 54.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 139.5 m | 158.1 m | 179.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 290.5 m | 320.3 m | 286.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 424.5 m | 475.7 m | 475.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 80.0 m | 80.4 m | 80.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 129.2 m | 129.0 m | 135.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 26.7 m | 21.3 m | 29.2 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 102.5 m ≈ | 107.7 m ≈ | 106.7 m ≈ | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -77.1 m | -69.0 m | -26.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -41.1 m | -43.5 m | -87.5 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 28.0 m | 34.5 m | 39.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.6 m | 0 | 20.2 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 62 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.3 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality72
- Returns63
- Balance sheet95
- Valuation32
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 62/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.7% | 71 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.5% | 46 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 129.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 27.7x | 11 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.7% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.6% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 36.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet95/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HILL & SMITH PLC (HILS.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 868.8 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth 1.6%; net margin 9.5%; ROE 17.4%.
The estimated value range is 11.47–17.69 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 14.66 GBP, the price of 28.15 GBP leaves a potential of -47.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -92.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 62/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 17.7%
- FCF conversion: 129.3%
- Interest coverage: 12.5x
- Current ratio: 1.9x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 36.9%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 27.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| HILS.LHill & Smith PLC | 2.3 bn | 27.7 | 17.4% | 9.5% | +1.6% | +25% / +56% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HILS.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.33 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 28.91 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 43.60 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 14.94 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 29.84 Total return 11% · Per year 4% | 49.55 Total return 83% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 13.67 Total return -45% · Per year -11% | 30.81 Total return 19% · Per year 3% | 56.31 Total return 112% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 7.46
- Net margin± 5.22
- Annual revenue growth± 4.41
- Annual dilution± 0.44
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Hill & Smith PLC is a British industrial group operating as a decentralised structure of operating companies active in infrastructure and the built environment. Its 2025 annual report shows the group depends on multi-year government spending for US infrastructure, a factor that matters for its outlook now.1
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading positions in niche infrastructure markets with high barriers to entry provide a solid defence against competition.1
- The decentralised model lets operating companies respond quickly to changes in their markets.1
- Governance has a clear majority of independent directors and a formal risk management framework.1
Weaknesses
- Dependence on US infrastructure spending concentrates the group's exposure on one funding environment.1
- Board diversity falls below the declared targets, and the report admits the group does not meet the 40 percent female threshold.1
- The decentralised model depends on the quality of each company's risk register, which raises the complexity of central oversight.1
Opportunities
- Relocation of critical component production to the US could create additional demand for the group's products.1
- Private investment in electricity transmission and distribution could widen the accessible market.1
- Artificial intelligence and new product development could open additional growth channels.1
Risks
- Reduction in US infrastructure spendinghigh
If multi-year spending plans change, the group's revenues could fall, and its stated risk appetite for this area is receptive.1
- Change in global economic and geopolitical environmenthigh
Tensions in the Middle East, tariffs and energy costs could affect supply chains and production capacity.1 The risk rose during 2025.1
- Product failuremedium
Component defects or warranty issues could lead to direct remediation costs and reputational risk.1
- Rising competitive pressuremedium
A slower market could intensify competition, with effects on customer retention and pricing.1
- Climate and transition risksmedium
Climate change and extreme weather events could disrupt operations and supply chains, and the transition to a low-carbon economy could bring added costs.1
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If US infrastructure programmes remain stable, demand for the group's products could stay supported over several years.
- Leading positions in niches with high barriers to entry could protect margins even in a harsher competitive environment.
- The decentralised model and a majority-independent governance structure could make rapid market adaptation easier.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on a single public funding environment could amplify the impact of any cut in federal spending.
- Geopolitical risks and supply chain pressures could hit costs and deliveries at the same time.
- Insufficient Board diversity and the risks tied to the quality of local risk registers could complicate oversight and reputation.
What to watch
- Evolution of federal infrastructure spending plans in the US2027
- Progress toward a more diverse Board and achievement of declared targets2026 AGM
- Effect of artificial intelligence investment and new products on growth2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group runs a decentralised model in which each operating company manages its own risks using a standardised risk register, with decisions taken close to its markets.1 The Board sets strategy and risk appetite, while the Executive Committee coordinates performance across the businesses.1 The governance structure includes a Chair, a Chief Executive Officer, a Chief Financial Officer and a Senior Independent Director, and most Board members excluding the Chair are independent Non-executive Directors.1
The group relies on leading positions in niche infrastructure markets with high barriers to entry, and its portfolio spans several end markets and territories.1 The report says activity is supported by multi-year government plans to upgrade US infrastructure and by private investment in electricity transmission and distribution.1 These factors explain both the growth potential and the dependence on one funding environment and regulatory setting.1
For risk management, the group sorts principal risks into appetite categories: averse for product failure, IT systems and cyber, health and safety, and compliance; receptive for the reduction in US infrastructure spending.1 The receptive stance means the group accepts a higher level of risk to capture opportunities in that area.1
Segments
Decentralised operating companies
Each operating company identifies, evaluates and manages its own risks and keeps autonomy in front of its market, within the group risk framework.1 The annual report does not break out separate figures per segment here, so this block relies on the description of the operating model.1
Infrastructure and built environment markets
The portfolio covers a range of end markets linked to infrastructure and the built environment, which gives diversification across products, markets and territories.1 The report also describes the need to meet regulatory and testing requirements for critical products, which raises the importance of quality controls.1
Market context
The markets served by the group are tied to infrastructure investment, the energy transition and the relocation of critical component production to the US.1 Management notes these outlays are planned over several years, which can support medium-term demand, but could be affected if federal budgets change.1
Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks rose during 2025, and the report cites tensions linked to the Middle East conflict and US tariffs as pressures on supply chains and energy costs.1 If these pressures persist, they could affect the group's ability to meet customer orders.1
Trends
- Multi-year US infrastructure spendingtailwind
Government plans to modernise infrastructure and support for private investment in power transmission are positive factors the group identifies.1 If these programmes remain in place, they could support demand for the group's products.1
- Changes in federal spending plansheadwind
The report acknowledges that changes to spending plans could hurt revenues, which is why reduced infrastructure spending is treated as a major risk.1 The degree of US exposure makes this uncertainty relevant.1
- Geopolitical tensions and supply chainsheadwind
The Middle East conflict and US tariffs have increased supply chain risk exposure, and the report shows a rise in risk in this category.1 The source also names energy costs as a source of pressure.1
- Technology investment and resiliencemixed
The group is adapting to new technologies and climate requirements, and the report cites artificial intelligence as both an opportunity and a short-term threat.1 The net effect depends on how well operating companies adapt their strategies.1
Competitive position
The report says volatility and slower markets can increase competition, which could mean lost customers and pricing pressure.1 New entrants could affect market share and margins.1 The group argues its leading positions in high-barrier niches and the agility of its operating companies reduce this risk.1
- Competitors in niche infrastructure markets
The annual report does not name individual competitors and only describes general competitive pressure in niche markets.
- New market entrants
The report warns that new entrants could affect market share and margins, without identifying specific companies.
- Suppliers with similar production capacity
Competition may come from companies offering comparable products in quality and service, a situation the report describes only generically.
- Companies present in the same territories
The report mentions the group's territorial diversity but does not identify specific rivals in each territory.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202408 Jan 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Hill & Smith PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.