olivLaw · European equity research
Hiscox Ltd HSX.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Hiscox is a specialty insurance group active in retail insurance, the London insurance market and reinsurance. In 2025 management launched an accelerated transformation programme meant to deliver annual benefits of 200 million USD from 2028, in a hard reinsurance market and under cost pressures.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Hiscox Ltd (HSX.L) stock was 19.90 GBP (+2.63% on the day), with beta 0.48, 52-week range 13.08–19.90 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 17.82 – 19.41
- above the upper band · %B 1.31 · band width 8.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 18.66 / 17.11
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.16 / 0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.5% | −1.5% | +9.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +11.1% | −5.3% | +16.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +28.4% | +4.7% | +23.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +39.8% | +6.0% | +33.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +46.5% | +8.2% | +38.3 pp | +9.6% |
| 3 years | +106.5% | +47.2% | +59.4 pp | +27.8% |
| 5 years | +141.4% | +41.8% | +99.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 712.0 m | 627.2 m | 604.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −11.9% | −3.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.75 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −11.6% | −1.7% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 231.0 m | 109.3 m | 71.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 878.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 3.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 12.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROA
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest expense | 50.0 m | 53.1 m | 66.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 625.9 m | 685.4 m | 732.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -86.1 m | 58.2 m | 128.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 712.0 m | 627.2 m | 604.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.75 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.30 | — | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 878.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 130.3 m | 125.6 m | 108.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.1 bn | 11.2 bn | 12.2 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.8 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.2 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 345.5 m | 342.4 m | 334.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 232.1 m | 114.4 m | 72.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.1 m | 5.1 m | 1.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 231.0 m ≈ | 109.3 m ≈ | 71.5 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -34.2 m | -38.5 m | -113.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -128.9 m | -282.6 m | -357.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 149.1 m | 275.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 6.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
6% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 21.60 – 40.21 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E21.60 – 40.21 (Mid 28.99)19 companies used · median multiple 16.6x · quartiles 12.3x – 23.0x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APN.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L, BMS.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate3.93 – 5.28 (Mid 4.51)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 6.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 11.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 100% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HISCOX LTD (HSX.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 15.8%.
The estimated value range is 21.60–40.21 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 6.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 11.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 102.7 bn | 13.3 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +5% / +85% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.6 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.8 bn | 4.3 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.2 bn | 25.2 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −8% / +163% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.9 bn | 16.8 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −11% / −21% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.3 bn | 16.6 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +22% / +165% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.9 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +42% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.4 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | +0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.8 bn | 17.3 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +67% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 23.4 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +11% / +134% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.5 bn | 15.2 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +41% / +29% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.1 bn | 22.6 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 766.1 m | 36.3 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +72% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 503.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +74% / +10% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 496.3 m | 16.6 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −26% / +12% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 348.0 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −44% / −84% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.9 m | 28.6 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 77.4 m | 38.7 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +11% / −12% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 10.7 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +360% / +922% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 269.5 k | 0.2 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −10% / +154% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +33% / +81% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +59% / +62% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HSX.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Hiscox is a specialty insurance group active in retail insurance, the London insurance market and reinsurance. In 2025 management launched an accelerated transformation programme meant to deliver annual benefits of 200 million USD from 2028, in a hard reinsurance market and under cost pressures.
SWOT
Strengths
- Recognised underwriting expertise and an entrepreneurial culture that support relations with brokers and clients.
- Investment portfolio dominated by high-quality instruments of relatively short duration.
- Presence in three complementary segments: retail, the London market and reinsurance.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on one major reinsurer, with a significant concentration of exposure.
- Complexity of IT systems and a large number of applications and suppliers that raise costs.
- Sensitivity of portfolio value to interest rate movements and asset valuations.
Opportunities
- Growth in retail through new products, distribution partnerships and new geographic markets.
- Automation and use of artificial intelligence to reduce costs and speed up services.
- Expansion of specialty lines where the group has technological and expertise advantages.
Threats
- Softening rates in some segments could reduce margins in the short term.
- Rising litigation and social inflation could increase claim costs.
- Catastrophic events and cyber attacks could generate major losses.
Risks
- Underwriting riskhigh
Premiums collected could prove insufficient to cover future claims if pricing or risk selection proves wrong.
- Reserving riskhigh
Reserve estimates for liability claims could be exceeded if litigation grows faster than anticipated.
- Market and interest rate riskmedium
A fall in the value of fixed income instruments and private credit funds could reduce available capital.
- Reinsurance credit riskmedium
Failure of a major reinsurer to pay could generate losses, given the concentration of exposure.
- Operational and cyber risklow
Supplier disruption or cyber attacks could disrupt operations during the transformation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the transformation programme delivers the promised benefits, operating margins could rise significantly after 2026.
- Retail growth, supported by new products and partnerships, could accelerate revenue across several markets.
- Underwriting discipline in reinsurance could sustain very good combined ratios while rates remain adequate.
What would break the thesis
- If rates soften quickly in the London market, premium growth could slow without margin improvement.
- Rising litigation could raise reserves and erode results in the following years.
- Transformation costs could exceed the expected benefits if execution is delayed.
What to watch
- Progress of the transformation programme and benefits realised against the annual target2026
- Evolution of ICWP in Hiscox Retail, especially the announced acceleration of growthQ1 2027
- Evolution of underwriting rates in the London market and in reinsurancenext 10-K
- Exposure to the major reinsurer and development of casualty reserves2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Hiscox Ltd runs three main segments: Hiscox Retail, which sells insurance directly and through partners to individuals and small businesses, Hiscox London Market, specialised in commercial and complex risk insurance through the London market, and Hiscox Re, the reinsurance arm. The group invests its own funds and its insurance obligations in debt instruments, equities and private credit funds, and the board monitors the portfolio's sensitivity to rates and prices. Current strategy aims at profitable growth by extending the specialty model into new markets, transforming operations and diversifying distribution channels.
The investment portfolio is dominated by fixed income instruments, with a substantial weight in high-quality corporate and government bonds of relatively short duration. Equity exposure is limited and diversified, and part of the assets sits in absolute return strategies to support underwriting capacity in financial market downturns. Risk management works through a framework built on three lines of defence, with dedicated committees for catastrophe, cyber, casualty and reserving.
The group is trying to reduce operational complexity by rationalising IT applications and its supplier base, while automating processes and using artificial intelligence in underwriting and broker relations. A multi-year collaboration with Google Cloud signed at the end of 2025 supports this direction. Management states that the business model remains based on underwriting expertise, an entrepreneurial culture and sector specialism.
Segments
Hiscox Retail
The retail segment, which serves individuals and small businesses through digital distribution and partnerships, was expected to accelerate ICWP growth in 2026, supported by new products, new distribution deals and new markets. Management targets an undiscounted combined ratio within the 89%-94% operating range, with gradual improvement.
Hiscox London Market
The London market for commercial and complex risk insurance manages pricing cycles at a micro-segment level, as rates soften in some areas. The division relies on its diverse portfolio and its ability to innovate to find attractive business where it has complementary expertise and technological advantages.
Hiscox Re
The reinsurance division has captured the hard reinsurance market, with significant net growth over the last five years and undiscounted combined ratios in the 60s in recent years. Gross premium depends on the availability of third-party capital and growth in specialty lines.
Market context
The specialty insurance market in the UK and Europe was shaped in 2025 by geopolitical tensions, US tariffs, slow economic growth in Britain and Europe and a rising propensity to litigation. Economic and social inflation, supply chain disruption and the threat of cyber attacks required continuous price reviews.
Reinsurance has been in a hard cycle, with good rates for property risks exposed to natural catastrophes, while the London market shows signs of softening in some lines. Climate change and the frequency of extreme events remain central factors for pricing and capital.
Trends
- Hard reinsurance cyclemixed
Higher reinsurance rates supported the growth of Hiscox Re and very good combined ratios. If the market softens, margins could decline.
- Social inflation and litigationheadwind
A rising tendency to litigate and higher liability claim costs could increase the reserves needed and require price reviews.
- Artificial intelligence and digitalisationtailwind
Using AI in underwriting and broker relations could reduce costs and improve client experience, provided governance is strong.
- Geopolitical and financial market volatilityheadwind
Regional conflicts and market shocks can affect the value of the investment portfolio and underwriting capacity, especially if interest rates move sharply.
Competitive position
Hiscox competes with specialty insurers and international insurance and reinsurance groups, both in retail and in the London commercial market. Its advantage lies in sector expertise, global presence and the ability to adapt quickly to market cycles.
In reinsurance, competition depends on available capacity and financial ratings, and the group depends on a limited number of reinsurers with acceptable credit. The concentration of exposure to one major reinsurer is a point of attention.
- Lloyd's of London syndicates
Lloyd's syndicates compete with Hiscox London Market in commercial and complex risk insurance.
- Munich Reinsurance Company
A major reinsurer for the group and, at the same time, a direct competitor in reinsurance.
- Specialty insurance groups
Commercial specialty insurance groups compete for the same clients and brokers.
- Global reinsurance groups
Global reinsurers compete for capacity and for specialised reinsurance transactions.
News & filings
In the press
- FTSE 100-listed insurer Hiscox’s shares leap amid report of takeover bidThe Guardian World · 15 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202418 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Hiscox Ltd · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.