olivLaw · European equity research
Humble Group AB HUMBLE.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0006261046 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Humble Group AB is a Swedish fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) group with food, beverage and personal care products, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Mid Cap since September 2024. The group aims to become an FMCG powerhouse, focusing on strengthening underlying profitability and converting earnings into stable cash flows, according to its 2025 annual report.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Humble Group AB (HUMBLE.ST) stock was 5.80 SEK (+3.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.5 bn SEK, P/E 145.0 on diluted EPS of 0.04 SEK over the last 12 months, beta 0.76, 52-week range 5.10–8.32 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.93 – 5.95
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 18.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.43 / 6.58
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.09 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.8% | −0.6% | +12.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.3% | −4.2% | +6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.3% | +4.3% | −22.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −25.3% | +7.5% | −32.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −24.6% | +9.9% | −34.5 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −34.7% | +49.8% | −84.6 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −76.9% | +42.8% | −119.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 49.8, median 121.9, max 194.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.3% | +5.0% |
| Net income | -106.0 m | 109.0 m | 17.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −84.4% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.28 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −84.0% |
| net % | -1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Free cash flow | 1.0 bn | 180.0 m | 403.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 321.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn SEK
- Net debt
- 1.3 bn SEK
- Equity
- 4.9 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 8.8 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.34x
- Current ratio
- 1.54x
- ROE
- 0.3%
- ROA
- 0.2%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 318.0 m | 361.0 m | 249.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 341.0 m | 312.0 m | 334.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 659.0 m ≈ | 673.0 m ≈ | 583.0 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 393.0 m | 228.0 m | 194.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -61.0 m | 146.0 m | 67.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 45.0 m | 37.0 m | 51.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -106.0 m | 109.0 m | 17.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.28 | 0.25 | 0.04 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 401.0 m | 432.0 m | 321.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 940.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 192.0 m | 246.0 m | 307.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.9 bn | 9.3 bn | 8.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 253.0 m | 360.0 m | 188.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 378.6 m | 436.0 m | 425.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 285.0 m | 515.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 49.0 m | 105.0 m | 112.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.0 bn ≈ | 180.0 m ≈ | 403.0 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -423.0 m | -284.0 m | -234.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -601.0 m | 18.0 m | -354.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 46 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.5 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality43
- Balance sheet36
- Valuation56
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 46/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.3% | 22 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.2% | 22 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 2,370.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 48 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 145.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.5x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 16.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet36/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality43/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Humble Group AB (HUMBLE.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.1 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 0.2%; ROE 0.3%; net debt/EBITDA 2.3x.
The estimated value range is 3.04–7.13 SEK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.13 SEK, the price of 5.80 SEK leaves a potential of -28.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -40.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 46/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 2,370.6%
- EV/EBITDA: 6.5x
- FCF yield: 16.3%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 3.3%
- Net margin: 0.2%
- Interest coverage: 1.3x
- P/E (TTM): 145.0x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| HUMBLE.STHumble Group AB | 2.5 bn | 145.0 | 0.3% | 0.2% | +5.0% | −28% / −39% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HUMBLE.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.45 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 6.09 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 9.18 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 3.38 Total return -42% · Per year -16% | 6.72 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 11.11 Total return 92% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 3.32 Total return -43% · Per year -11% | 7.42 Total return 28% · Per year 5% | 13.46 Total return 132% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 1.68
- Net margin± 1.18
- Annual revenue growth± 0.96
- Annual dilution± 0.10
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Humble Group AB is a Swedish fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) group with food, beverage and personal care products, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Mid Cap since September 2024. The group aims to become an FMCG powerhouse, focusing on strengthening underlying profitability and converting earnings into stable cash flows, according to its 2025 annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an extensive production footprint across several jurisdictions and the ability to develop new products within its subsidiaries 1.
- Management describes a clear strategy to convert underlying profitability into stable cash flows 1.
- Governance is considered solid, with the Swedish Code applied without deviations in 2025 and a board that meets frequently 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on volatile raw materials such as cocoa, palm oil and nuts exposes the group to cost swings 1.
- Water use and exposure to water-stressed areas create operational risks for some facilities 1.
- The climate risk analysis is still incomplete at asset level, and transition plans are not fully implemented 1.
Opportunities
- If the group improves packaging recyclability, it could reduce resource risks and open new opportunities 1.
- Growing underlying profitability and converting it to cash could reduce leverage and strengthen the financial position 1.
- Developing new products that are better for people and the planet could support long-term growth 1.
Risks
- Energy and transport costshigh
Rising energy and transport prices could reduce margins, given the group's dependence on these inputs 1.
- Water stress in the supply chainhigh
Water scarcity could disrupt production of some raw materials and affect costs and delivery security 1.
- Raw material volatilitymedium
Prices of cocoa, palm oil and other volatile inputs could affect the cost structure 1.
- Tax and climate regulationmedium
Application of global minimum tax or climate transition requirements could add costs if thresholds are crossed 1.
- Incomplete climate analysislow
The lack of a detailed asset-level climate risk analysis could leave unidentified exposures 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group converts underlying profitability into stable cash flows, its financial position could strengthen with lower net debt 1.
- The product portfolio and in-house development capacity could support growth across FMCG categories 1.
- Sustainability and circular economy efforts could reduce operational risks over the longer term 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on energy, transport and volatile raw materials could compress margins if costs keep rising 1.
- Exposure to water stress and regulatory requirements could require unbudgeted investment 1.
- The absence of a complete climate analysis could leave risks unassessed, which could affect investor confidence 1.
What to watch
- Development of net debt leverage and cash conversion of profit2026
- Impact of energy and transport costs on margins2026
- Whether consolidated revenues approach the global minimum tax threshold2026
- Outcome of the 2026 AGM and any board changesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Humble Group AB ('Humble') is a Swedish public limited company headquartered in Stockholm, registered under organisation number 556794-4797 and listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Mid Cap from 27 September 2024; it was previously listed on Nasdaq First North Growth Market from 2014 1. The group operates as an FMCG business with a global supply chain and 17 production facilities, three of which are located in water-stressed areas 1. Its activities run through subsidiaries, including The Humble Co., founded by an entrepreneur who is also a significant shareholder 1.
Strategic oversight rests with the board, which has set sustainability targets to 2030 and aims to reduce net debt leverage, per the annual report 1. The group also monitors the global minimum tax rules (Pillar 2), as it has not yet exceeded the consolidated revenue threshold that triggers them 1.
On governance, Humble applied the Swedish Corporate Governance Code with no deviations in 2025, and its auditor is BDO Mälardalen AB 1. The 2025 AGM re-elected six board members and chose an independent chair 1.
Segments
FMCG consumer products
Main product categories include food, beverages and personal care and household products, for which the group depends on raw materials such as cocoa, dairy, cotton, nuts and palm oil 1. The company capitalises direct costs of new product development, usually amortised over 5 years 1.
Beverage distribution
A significant part of distribution concerns beverages purchased from external suppliers, which exposes the group to water-related risks and transport costs 1.
Product development
The group runs projects to develop better products for people and the planet, managed project-by-project within its subsidiaries 1.
Market context
Humble operates in the consumer goods market, where raw material, energy and transport costs shape margins. The annual report notes that rising energy prices and transport costs are risks for a group that depends on these inputs 1. Demand and market structure are not quantified in the source.
The market faces growing EU regulatory pressure on climate targets and transition plans, which the group has not yet fully implemented 1. Competition and market share are not detailed in the available source.
Trends
- High energy and transport costsheadwind
Rising energy and transport prices could compress margins, as the group depends heavily on these inputs 1.
- Water stress and water costsheadwind
Growing water stress could raise water prices and fees, and tighter rules could require investment in technology and infrastructure 1.
- Climate and transition regulationmixed
EU requirements for climate transition plans could create compliance costs but also opportunities for companies improving efficiency and product lifecycles 1.
- Circular economy and packagingmixed
Moving from single-use packaging to circular models could reduce resource risks if the group improves recyclability 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name direct competitors, so market share or positioning comparisons cannot be drawn from this source 1. The group describes itself as an FMCG business with high growth ambitions, meaning it faces established players in consumer goods.
The competitive advantages cited by management relate to the ability to develop new products and build customer and supplier relationships, but the source gives no quantitative comparative data 1.
- Established FMCG groups
The annual report does not name competitors; this category covers large food, beverage and personal care producers, with no data from the source.
- Regional beverage producers
Competition in the beverage segment is not detailed in the source.
- Retailer private-label brands
The source contains no information on their position relative to the group.
- Distribution players
The source mentions beverage distribution but does not identify competitors in that field.
News & filings
In the press
- Why the humble rabbit might be Australia's worst introduced speciesPhys.org · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- The humble Playdate has become one of gaming’s best dealsThe Verge · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- ‘Sando: The Art of the Japanese Sandwich’ elevates the humble biteThe Japan Times · 03 Oct 2026 · EN
- My Humble Opinion on 'Omarchy' OSHacker News · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- South Korea President Lee apologises, vows to be humble as support nosedivesThe Straits Times — Asia · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- 'Humble but ambitious' - the return of fallen giants SchalkeBBC — Europe · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Could this humble sea sponge clean up the world’s ports?The Guardian — Environment · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- Bangladesh humble Australia with worst total in contest as Hasan takes 6-55Al Jazeera English · 13 Aug 2026 · EN
- Kazakh President Tokayev’s ‘Humble’ Query for PeaceThe Diplomat (Asia geopolitics) · 30 Jul 2026 · RO
- UK ambassador remembers former emir of Qatar as humble and humorousAl Jazeera English · 12 Jul 2026 · EN
- Japan’s Humble 10-Yen Coin Now Worth 10.4 Yen On AI Copper RallyBloomberg Markets · 17 Jun 2026 · EN
- Gliderboy Reinvents Humble Weather Balloon with Flight HomeHacker News · 15 Jun 2026 · EN
- Hanoi's humble beer glass and the memory of a nationHacker News · 18 May 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Humble Group AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.