olivLaw · European equity research
Imperial Brands PLC IMB.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0004544929 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Imperial Brands is an international producer of tobacco products and next generation products (NGP), with a 2030 strategy aimed at sustainable value from combustibles and growth in NGP. In fiscal 2025, NGP net revenue grew by 13.7% at constant currency, which keeps this category closely watched.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Imperial Brands PLC (IMB.L) stock was 30.62 GBP (+2.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 25.3 bn GBP, P/E 12.3 on diluted EPS of 2.49 GBP over the last 12 months, beta -0.02, 52-week range 24.24–33.41 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 79.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.62 – 30.52
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 13.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 26.34 / 28.37
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.06 / 0.95
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +24.1% | −0.6% | +24.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +11.0% | −4.2% | +15.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.5% | +4.3% | +6.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.8% | +7.5% | −9.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.5% | +9.9% | −12.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +70.6% | +49.8% | +20.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +95.6% | +42.8% | +52.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.6, median 7.3, max 12.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 32.5 bn | 32.4 bn | 32.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.2% | −0.7% |
| Net income | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +12.2% | −20.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.51 | 2.99 | 2.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +19.2% | −16.6% |
| net % | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- 9.6 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 8.2 bn GBP
- Equity
- 5.4 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 28.7 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 1.77x
- Current ratio
- 0.74x
- ROE
- 36.1%
- ROA
- 7.3%
- FCF margin
- 10.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 32.5 bn | 32.4 bn | 32.2 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 25.8 bn | 25.6 bn | 25.2 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 6.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.0 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 676.0 m | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 655.0 m | 282.0 m | 908.0 m | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.51 | 2.99 | 2.49 | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.6 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.8 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 29.5 bn | 27.8 bn | 28.7 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 9.6 bn | 9.5 bn | 10.0 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.9 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.5 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.9 bn | 11.5 bn | 11.9 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 22.8 bn | 21.8 bn | 23.3 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.4 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 922.3 m | 869.0 m | 824.8 m | esef· 03 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 166.0 m | 198.0 m | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 3.1 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | esef· 03 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -427.0 m | -348.0 m | -342.0 m | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.1 bn | -3.2 bn | -3.0 bn | esef· 03 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 25.3 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 18.2% | 71 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.4% | 43 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 165.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.2x | 56 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.3x | 72 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet34/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC (IMB.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 32.2 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -0.7%; net margin 6.4%; ROE 40.3%.
The estimated value range is 34.10–52.70 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.43 GBP, the price of 30.62 GBP leaves a potential of 38.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 18.2%
- FCF conversion: 165.6%
- P/E (TTM): 12.3x
- FCF yield: 13.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.7x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| IMB.LImperial Brands PLC | 25.3 bn | 12.3 | 40.3% | 6.4% | −0.7% | −5% / +67% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IMB.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 17.27 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 30.61 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 46.22 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 15.04 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 30.16 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 50.24 Total return 64% · Per year 18% |
| 5 years | 13.10 Total return -57% · Per year -16% | 29.72 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 54.62 Total return 78% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 7.54
- Net margin± 5.28
- Annual revenue growth± 4.56
- Annual dilution± 0.44
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Imperial Brands is an international producer of tobacco products and next generation products (NGP), with a 2030 strategy aimed at sustainable value from combustibles and growth in NGP. In fiscal 2025, NGP net revenue grew by 13.7% at constant currency, which keeps this category closely watched.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified brand portfolio across price points and a solid operational record over the past five years.
- Ability to generate cash and return capital to shareholders, supported by a disciplined capital allocation framework.
- Proven growth in NGP and stable market share in the main priority markets.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on combustibles volumes, which continue to decline, requires the company to offset this through pricing.
- The transition to an integrated organisation with common processes and data involves costs and execution risks.
- Exposure to currency movements can reduce reported results even when constant currency performance is good.
Opportunities
- Expanding the NGP category could bring new revenue sources if investment scale increases.
- Digitalisation and the use of artificial intelligence could improve efficiency and data-led decisions.
- Gradual price increases in markets where tobacco remains affordable could support margins.
Threats
- Stricter regulation of tobacco and nicotine could limit advertising, packaging or access to products.
- Illicit trade and economic pressure on consumers could reduce legal sales.
- Geopolitical tensions and tariff changes could disrupt supply and key markets.
Risks
- Tobacco and nicotine regulationhigh
Regulatory changes could restrict products, marketing or sales in several countries, with a direct impact on revenue.
- Decline in combustibles volumeshigh
If volumes keep falling faster than pricing offsets them, tobacco revenue could be affected.
- Inflationary and economic pressuremedium
Inflation and consumer budget constraints could reduce demand and raise the costs of raw materials and energy.
- Geopolitical and supply chain risksmedium
Conflicts, trade tensions and tariff changes could disrupt supply and operations.
- Climate risklow
Climate impacts on leaf harvests and factories could affect operational resilience.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company has shown it can raise tobacco prices and revenue even while volumes decline, which could support cash flow.
- Rapid NGP growth over five years could gradually diversify the revenue base.
- The planned shareholder capital returns for fiscal 2026 point to a disciplined allocation framework backed by cash generation.
What would break the thesis
- Combustibles volumes continue to decline, and revenue growth depends largely on pricing, which could become hard to sustain.
- Regulation in several countries could significantly limit marketing and access to products, with effects that are hard to anticipate.
- Reported results lag constant currency results because of exchange rates, which makes reported performance more volatile for investors.
What to watch
- Development of NGP revenue and market share in the new categoriesNext annual report
- Delivery of the capital returns announced for fiscal 20262026
- Effects of the new executive leadership and the 2030 strategy on costs and efficiency2026
- Regulatory changes on tobacco and nicotine in the main marketsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Imperial Brands bases its business on adult consumers who choose tobacco and next generation products, and the company presents itself as a challenger that invests in understanding consumers, differentiated brands and innovation. Its strategy has two twin priorities: sustainable value in combustibles and scale in NGP. The company also has a distribution segment, which contributed positively to results in fiscal 2025.
Segments
Combustibles (tobacco)
The traditional tobacco segment delivered in fiscal 2025 a price-mix gain of 5.4%, which more than offset volume decline. The company reports tobacco net revenue growth of 3.7% at constant currency, with brands such as Winston and Gauloises supporting market positions.
Next generation products (NGP)
The NGP category grew at double-digit rates and is the main growth driver of the 2030 strategy. The company reported share gains across all categories and cumulative NGP net revenue growth of 83% over five years.
Market context
Tobacco markets are heavily regulated and competitive, and the company operates in several regions with different rules. Inflationary pressures and constraints on consumers' disposable income affect demand. The company says its market share in its five priority markets remained stable in fiscal 2025.
Trends
- Price increases in combustiblestailwind
Pricing and product mix offset volume declines in combustibles, which could support revenue if demand remains stable.
- Expansion of the NGP categorytailwind
Adult consumers switching to potentially less harmful products could expand the NGP segment, where the company reports sustained growth.
- Inflationary pressure on consumersheadwind
Fluctuating inflation continues to weigh on consumer disposable income and on the cost of goods, which may affect volumes.
- Regulation and geopolitical tensionsmixed
Regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions could affect operations, supply chains and trade, though the net effect depends on each market.
Competitive position
The tobacco and nicotine market is highly competitive globally, and Imperial Brands presents itself as a challenger competing through differentiated brands and innovation in NGP. The analysed source does not provide a full list of competitors or comparative market shares, so relative positioning remains limited to the company's own information.
- Global tobacco competitors
The source mentions that the group operates in highly competitive global markets without naming specific competitors.
- NGP product producers
Competition in next generation nicotine products is part of the competitive environment described in the report.
- Premium and discount brands
The company mentions competition in both premium and discount segments, where it aims to maintain its position.
- Distributors and retailers
Relationships with distributors and retailers are treated in the report as part of the business model and of the competition for shelf space.
News & filings
In the press
- Imperial Brands Plans £1.5 Billion Buyback After Shares DeclineBloomberg Markets · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Imperial Brands on aftermath of Russian strike on tobacco factory in KyivUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202503 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202418 Dec 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Imperial Brands PLC · 30 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.