olivLaw · European equity research
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. JMT.LS
Portugal · Euronext Lisbon · ISIN PTJMT0AE0001 · Vertical: Listed companies from Portugal
Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese food distribution group with operations in Portugal, Poland, Colombia and, since March 2025, Slovakia, also active in agri-food and specialised retail. For fiscal 2025 it reports operating cash flow of 2.425 billion EUR, showing the group's cash generation capacity. Investors also watch how it manages investment and debt across several countries.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. (JMT.LS) stock was 18.55 EUR (+0.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.6 bn EUR, P/E 18.0 on diluted EPS of 1.03 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.18%, beta 0.31, 52-week range 16.18–22.46 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 16.86 – 19.06
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.77 · band width 12.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 17.91 / 18.83
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.21 / 0.15
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.5% | −1.0% | +10.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.4% | −3.9% | +10.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.5% | +7.2% | −13.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.4% | +6.6% | −15.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −16.7% | +9.1% | −25.7 pp | −12.3% |
| 3 years | −17.3% | +47.9% | −65.3 pp | +21.0% |
| 5 years | −6.2% | +43.3% | −49.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 19.1, median 19.4, max 19.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.6 bn | 33.5 bn | 36.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.3% | +7.6% |
| Net income | 756.0 m | 599.0 m | 646.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −20.8% | +7.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.20 | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −20.8% | +7.9% |
| net % | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.3 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 519.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- -1.7 bn EUR
- Equity
- 3.5 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 17.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.15x
- Current ratio
- 0.62x
- ROE
- 19.1%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.6 bn | 33.5 bn | 36.0 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 24.4 bn | 26.6 bn | 28.6 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 6.3 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.4 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.0 bn | 801.0 m | 883.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 239.0 m | 195.0 m | 225.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 756.0 m | 599.0 m | 646.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.20 | 0.95 | 1.03 | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.59 | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.6 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 639.0 m | 649.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 156.0 m | 164.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 14.3 bn | 15.3 bn | 17.1 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 280.0 m | 505.0 m | 519.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 7.8 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.0 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 628.2 m | 628.4 m | 628.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -893.0 m | -1.0 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -752.0 m | -869.0 m | -974.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 363.0 m | 429.0 m | 388.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 11.6 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.02 – 14.98 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E10.25 – 14.98 (Mid 12.48)6 companies used · median multiple 12.1x · quartiles 10.0x – 14.6xCOR.LS, CTT.LS, EGL.LS, NVG.LS, SEM.LS, TDSA.LS
- Dividend discount (DDM)8.02 – 10.94 (Mid 9.26)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 48.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.8% | 11 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.0x | 14 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.3% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
JERÓNIMO MARTINS SGPS SA (JMT.LS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 36.0 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 7.6%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 20.5%.
The estimated value range is 9.14–12.96 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.87 EUR, the price of 18.55 EUR leaves a potential of -41.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -70.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 48.4%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.8%
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- P/E (TTM): 18.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Portugal · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMT.LSJerónimo Martins Sgps SA | 11.6 bn | 18.0 | 20.5% | 1.8% | +7.6% | −9% / −18% |
| NVG.LSThe Navigator Company, S.A. | 2.1 bn | 14.7 | 10.5% | 7.3% | −5.7% | −2% / −21% |
| SEM.LSSemapa - Sociedade De Investimento E Gestão, Sgps, S.A. | 1.5 bn | 9.9 | 9.3% | 7.4% | −1.6% | +15% / +43% |
| EGL.LSMota - Engil, Sgps S.A. | 1.4 bn | 10.2 | 44.7% | 2.5% | −10.9% | −6% / +21% |
| COR.LSCorticeira Amorim, Sgps, S.A. | 841.5 m | 15.1 | 6.6% | 6.5% | −8.3% | −6% / −30% |
| CTT.LSCtt - Correios De Portugal S.A. | 711.3 m | 14.0 | 20.1% | 4.5% | +16.9% | −24% / +50% |
| NBA.LSNovabase - Sociedade Gestora De Participações Sociais S.A. | 261.1 m | 51.0 | 8.8% | 4.4% | −7.2% | −19% / +35% |
| TDSA.LSTeixeira Duarte, S.A. | 174.7 m | 3.5 | 34.1% | 7.1% | −8.9% | −38% / +490% |
| ESON.LSEstoril-Sol, SGPS S.A. | 32.2 m | — | -25.2% | -20.3% | −2.4% | −31% / −63% |
| RAM.LSRamada Investimentos E Indústria, S.A. | — | — | 8.1% | 85.9% | +0.6% | −12% / +2% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for JMT.LS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 11.30 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 19.95 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 30.01 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 11.65 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 23.08 Total return 35% · Per year 11% | 38.02 Total return 119% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 12.01 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 26.69 Total return 64% · Per year 10% | 48.16 Total return 186% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 5.77
- Net margin± 4.04
- Annual revenue growth± 3.22
- Annual dilution± 0.34
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese food distribution group with operations in Portugal, Poland, Colombia and, since March 2025, Slovakia, also active in agri-food and specialised retail. For fiscal 2025 it reports operating cash flow of 2.425 billion EUR, showing the group's cash generation capacity. Investors also watch how it manages investment and debt across several countries.
SWOT
Strengths
- Presence in several retail and distribution markets, which reduces dependence on a single economy.
- Consistent cash reserves at year end, which give financial flexibility.
Weaknesses
- Significant borrowings and lease liabilities, which increase sensitivity to financing costs.
- Intensive investment in fixed assets, which may limit short-term free cash flow.
- Exposure to several currencies and markets, which may complicate reporting and risk management.
Opportunities
- Expansion of specialised retail and distribution in countries where the group is already present.
- Entry into new markets, such as Slovakia, could add growth if integration succeeds.
- Development of agri-food activities could diversify revenue sources.
Threats
- Competitive pressure in food retail could affect margins.
- Macroeconomic and currency risks in emerging markets could affect results.
- Regulatory changes and compliance requirements could raise operating costs.
Risks
- Financial and liquidity riskmedium
The group is exposed to price, interest rate, credit and liquidity risks, managed partly with derivatives, according to the report 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Operations in several countries expose the group to fluctuations in local currencies, which could affect reported results.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Compliance with personal data, anti-corruption and tax law is managed centrally, but regulatory changes could raise costs.
- Climate and supply riskmedium
Extreme weather events could disrupt the supply chain and reduce the availability of some agricultural products, according to the group's assessment 1.
- Cybersecurity riskhigh
Information security incidents could affect operations and critical data across the group.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Operating cash generation rose in 2025, which could support investment and dividends without excessive debt growth.
- Presence in several European and Latin American markets could reduce reliance on any single economy.
- Expansion into Slovakia and specialised retail could add growth if execution stays strong.
What would break the thesis
- Intensive investment and lease liabilities could limit financial flexibility if demand weakens.
- Exposure to emerging markets could bring currency and macroeconomic volatility.
- Competition in food retail could pressure margins, especially if prices rise.
What to watch
- Trend in operating cash flow and investment2026
- Integration of operations in Slovakia2026
- Impact of IFRS 18 on the income statement2027
- Evolution of debt and financing costsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report's note on activities, the group operates predominantly in food distribution in Portugal, Poland, Colombia and, since March 2025, Slovakia. It also develops agri-food activities in Portugal and Morocco, and specialised retail in Portugal and Poland, where operations extended to the Czech Republic and Slovakia 1. The company has been listed on Euronext Lisbon since 1989 1.
The consolidated balance sheet shows total assets of 17.058 billion EUR at 31 December 2025, versus 15.295 billion EUR a year earlier 1. Operating cash flows rose to 2.425 billion EUR in 2025 1. Investment in tangible and intangible fixed assets was 1.057 billion EUR, while cash and cash equivalents reached 2.268 billion EUR at year end 1.
The capital structure includes share capital of 629 million EUR, but also significant borrowings and lease liabilities, so managing liquidity and financing costs is an important part of the business model 1. The group paid dividends of 388 million EUR in 2025 1.
Segments
Food distribution
The main segment is food distribution in Portugal, Poland, Colombia and Slovakia, which forms the base of the operating activity described in the report 1.
Agri-food and specialised retail
The group runs agri-food activities in Portugal and Morocco, and specialised retail in Portugal, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia 1.
Market context
The group operates in several food retail markets in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America, where competition and macroeconomic conditions differ from country to country 1.
The entry into Slovakia in March 2025 and the extension of specialised retail to the Czech Republic and Slovakia show a geographic growth strategy, with short-term effects on costs and investment 1.
Trends
- Investment in expansionmixed
Investment in fixed assets remained high, which could support network growth but pressures free cash flow if returns lag.
- New accounting standardsmixed
Adoption of IFRS 18 from 2027 could change the structure of the income statement, although management expects no material impact on the financial position 1.
- Financing costsheadwind
Net financial costs and lease interest payments could remain a pressure if interest rates stay high.
- Cash generationtailwind
The rise in operating cash flow in 2025 suggests stronger self-financing capacity, if the trend holds.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name competitors. From the activities described, the group competes with other food retail chains and distributors in the countries where it operates.
In Poland and Portugal, competition comes from local and regional operators, and in Colombia from national and informal networks. The official source does not give further detail 1.
- Local food retailers in Poland
Direct competition in food distribution in Poland, not detailed in the source.
- Retail chains in Portugal
Competition in the Portuguese food distribution market, not detailed in the source.
- Retail networks in Colombia
Competition in the Colombian market, not detailed in the source.
- Retailers in Slovakia
Competition in the Slovak market, where the group has been present since 2025.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202422 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.