olivLaw · European equity research
KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. KGH.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLKGHM000017 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
KGHM Polska Miedź is a Polish mining and metallurgy group active in copper extraction and processing and other metals. The 2023 annual report shows revenue from contracts with customers of 33 467 mln PLN and a significant currency exposure through subsidiaries whose functional currency is the US dollar. The source provided does not include information about more recent periods.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. (KGH.WA) stock was 279.80 PLN (−2.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 56.0 bn PLN, dividend yield 0.36%, beta 1.47, 52-week range 189.00–392.00 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 264.94 – 353.83
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.17 · band width 28.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 329.55 / 324.08
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -13.96 / -11.59
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −16.6% | −0.6% | −15.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.3% | −4.2% | −16.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.2% | +4.3% | −20.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.4% | +7.5% | −7.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +49.6% | +9.9% | +39.7 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | +146.5% | +49.8% | +96.7 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | +86.5% | +42.8% | +43.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29.8 bn | 33.8 bn | 33.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +13.6% | −1.1% |
| Net income | 6.2 bn | 4.8 bn | -3.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −22.5% | −177.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 30.78 | 23.86 | -18.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −22.5% | −177.5% |
| net % | 20.7% | 14.1% | -11.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 1.7 bn PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 28.6 bn PLN
- Total assets
- 51.4 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.15x
- ROE
- -12.2%
- ROA
- -7.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29.8 bn | 33.8 bn | 33.5 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 23.5 bn | 27.5 bn | 32.9 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 6.3 bn | 6.3 bn | 560.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 4.7 bn | 4.3 bn | -1.6 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 541.0 m | 420.0 m | 370.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 7.8 bn | 6.5 bn | -3.6 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 91.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 6.2 bn | 4.8 bn | -3.7 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 30.78 | 23.86 | -18.49 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 6.3 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 11.4 bn | 13.1 bn | 13.4 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 48.0 bn | 53.4 bn | 51.4 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.5 bn | 9.2 bn | 11.6 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 20.9 bn | 21.3 bn | 22.8 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 27.1 bn | 32.1 bn | 28.6 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 200.0 m | 200.0 m | 200.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 56.0 bn PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -11.0% | 10 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -4.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 29 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet12/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial10/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
KGHM Polska Miedź Spółka Akcyjna (KGH.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 33.5 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth -1.1%; net margin -11.0%; ROE -12.2%.
The estimated value range is 9.81–12.12 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.84 PLN, the price of 279.80 PLN leaves a potential of -96.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2,480.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -11.0%
- Interest coverage: -4.4x
- Current ratio: 1.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KGH.WAKGHM Polska Miedź Spółka Akcyjna | 56.0 bn | — | -12.2% | -11.0% | −1.1% | +32% / +143% |
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KGH.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
KGHM Polska Miedź is a Polish mining and metallurgy group active in copper extraction and processing and other metals. The 2023 annual report shows revenue from contracts with customers of 33 467 mln PLN and a significant currency exposure through subsidiaries whose functional currency is the US dollar. The source provided does not include information about more recent periods.
SWOT
Strengths
- A group with substantial mining and metallurgical assets and steady revenue from contracts with customers.
- International presence through subsidiaries in several jurisdictions, including Canada, the USA and Chile.
- Falling debt and rising cash at the end of 2023.
Weaknesses
- A large asset impairment loss in 2023 weighed on the result.
- Exposure to translation differences, especially for subsidiaries with the US dollar as functional currency.
- Dependence on the performance of specific assets, whose valuations rely on subjective assumptions.
Opportunities
- If the global minimum tax rules are clarified, the group could better anticipate its tax burden.
- Lower debt could leave room for investment in existing assets.
- International subsidiaries could broaden the group's geographic diversification.
Threats
- Introduction of global minimum taxation in Poland could raise tax burdens.
- Currency volatility could affect results reported in PLN.
- Mine and facility closure costs, already provisioned, could rise.
Risks
- Asset impairmenthigh
The 2023 impairment was significant and could continue if assumptions about assets change.
- Currency riskhigh
Translation differences in US dollar subsidiaries can strongly influence the consolidated result.
- Global minimum taxationmedium
The absence of national legislation in Poland leaves uncertainty about future tax burdens.
- Closure costsmedium
Provisions for closing mines and facilities could rise if estimates change.
- Fair value measurementlow
Fair values depend on subjective assumptions that may be revised in future periods.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue remains stable and debt keeps falling, the group could gain more financial room.
- Its core mining and metallurgical assets could support the business over the long term.
- Presence in several countries could reduce dependence on a single market.
What would break the thesis
- The large 2023 impairments could signal problems with asset values.
- Currency exposure could generate volatility in reported results.
- Global minimum taxation could reduce margins if introduced without preparation.
What to watch
- Status of Pillar 2 legislation in Poland2024
- Development of asset impairmentsnext 10-K
- Trend in debt and cash balances2024
- Effect of currency differences on the resultnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Grupa Kapitałowa KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. presents its consolidated financial statements in PLN, which is also the functional currency of the parent company. Among group subsidiaries, only Future 1 Sp. z o.o. and KGHM INTERNATIONAL LTD. have mainly the US dollar as functional currency. Revenue from contracts with customers was 33 467 mln PLN in 2023, compared with 33 847 mln PLN in 2022.
The group's mining and metallurgical assets, including extraction and processing assets, stood at 23 495 mln PLN at the end of 2023. The group also has entities in Canada, the USA, Chile, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom, making it an issuer with international operations.
The annual report is prepared under IFRS as adopted by the European Union. The source also mentions new standards, such as IFRS 17 and amendments to IAS 12, whose effects are described as immaterial or still being assessed.
Segments
Copper extraction and processing
The group's core activity, reflected in its mining and metallurgical assets, is copper extraction and processing. The source provided does not break down production volumes by segment.
International subsidiaries
Subsidiaries in Canada, the USA, Chile, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom operate with different currencies and tax regimes. KGHM INTERNATIONAL LTD. has the US dollar as its functional currency.
Investments and financing
The group has receivables from a joint venture, with loans granted of 9 096 mln PLN in 2023, compared with 9 603 mln PLN in 2022.
Market context
The source contains no data on the copper market or the group's market share. It only shows that exposure to metal prices and the US dollar exchange rate affects results, through exchange differences on translation of subsidiaries of 2 476 mln PLN in 2023.
A full market analysis would require other sources, since the annual report provided focuses on accounting rules and the impact of global minimum taxation, which is not yet reflected in the 2023 figures.
Trends
- Global minimum taxation (Pillar 2)headwind
The group is assessing the impact of Pillar 2 of the BEPS 2.0 reform, as Poland has not yet implemented the rules in national law. If they are applied, they could generate additional tax burdens in the jurisdictions of the subsidiaries.
- Currency translation differencesmixed
Subsidiaries with the US dollar as functional currency generate translation differences, which amounted to 2 476 mln PLN in 2023. Exchange-rate developments therefore influence the group's overall result.
- Asset impairmentheadwind
The asset impairment loss was 4 482 mln PLN in 2023, well above the 230 mln PLN level of 2022. Impairments can reflect changes in assumptions about the recoverable value of assets.
- Debt reductiontailwind
Group debt fell to 5 725 mln PLN at the end of 2023 from 6 443 mln PLN, while cash rose to 1 729 mln PLN. If the trend continues, financial flexibility could increase.
Competitive position
The source provided does not identify the group's competitors. No market shares or comparisons with other copper producers are presented.
A assessment of competitive position would require reports from other producers and data on production costs, information not contained in the annual report provided.
- Global copper producers
The source does not name competitors; comparison would have to be made against their own reports.
- Mining companies in North America and Chile
The group has subsidiaries in Canada, the USA and Chile, but the source does not specify whether these compete directly with other companies.
- Non-ferrous metal suppliers
The source contains no information on these companies; identifying them requires additional sources.
- Central European producers
The source does not provide data on the activity of these companies in the region.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
- Annual report 202202 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.