olivLaw · European equity research
Lerøy Seafood Group ASA LSG.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0003096208 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
Lerøy Seafood Group is a Norwegian seafood group integrated from salmon farming through value-added processing and distribution, with a strategy aiming for NOK 50 billion in revenue by 2030 while cutting costs. The current context, marked by cod quota cuts and a European Commission investigation, makes execution of this plan closely watched by investors and the public.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Lerøy Seafood Group ASA (LSG.OL) stock was 42.76 NOK (−1.79% on the day), with market capitalisation 25.7 bn NOK, P/E 70.1 on diluted EPS of 0.61 NOK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.84%, beta 0.37, 52-week range 38.00–51.50 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 41.54 – 44.33
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.44 · band width 6.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.89 / 44.46
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.15 / 0.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.9% | −0.6% | +3.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.8% | −4.2% | +7.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.4% | +4.3% | −7.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −15.7% | +7.5% | −23.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.6% | +9.9% | −18.5 pp | −4.7% |
| 3 years | +1.8% | +49.8% | −48.0 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −43.1% | +42.8% | −85.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.9, median 83.2, max 91.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.9 bn | 31.1 bn | 34.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +0.8% | +10.4% |
| Net income | 272.5 m | 2.7 bn | 366.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +881.1% | −86.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.46 | 4.49 | 0.61 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +876.1% | −86.4% |
| net % | 0.9% | 8.6% | 1.1% |
| Free cash flow | 2.0 bn | 311.3 m | 2.5 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.7 bn NOK
- Financial debt
- 2.0 bn NOK
- Net debt
- -646.4 m NOK
- Equity
- 19.9 bn NOK
- Total assets
- 40.7 bn NOK
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 1.82x
- ROE
- 1.8%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (NOK)
Margins
Income statement · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.9 bn | 31.1 bn | 34.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 299.6 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 272.5 m | 2.7 bn | 366.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.46 | 4.49 | 0.61 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.58 | 2.50 | 2.50 | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 20.1 bn | 19.6 bn | 17.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 8.2 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 41.4 bn | 42.8 bn | 40.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 975.8 m | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 7.5 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 21.5 bn | 21.7 bn | 20.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 19.9 bn | 21.2 bn | 19.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 592.4 m | 595.4 m | 599.9 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.0 bn ≈ | 311.3 m ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.1 bn | -1.4 bn | -3.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 25.7 bn NOK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
56% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.5% | 36 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.1% | 37 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 687.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 85 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 70.1x | 5 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 9.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.8% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 59.5% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial85/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns85/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation47/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LERØY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA (LSG.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 34.4 bn NOK in 2025; YoY growth 10.4%; net margin 1.1%; ROE 1.8%.
The estimated value range is 15.04–24.77 NOK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 19.56 NOK, the price of 42.76 NOK leaves a potential of -54.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -118.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 687.5%
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- FCF yield: 9.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 59.5%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 70.1x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 79.8 bn | 20.3 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +36% / +59% |
| LSG.OLLerøy Seafood Group Asa | 25.7 bn | 70.1 | 1.8% | 1.1% | +10.4% | −9% / +1% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.5 bn | 19.8 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +8% / +69% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.2 bn | 39.3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +10% / +73% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.5 bn | 21.4 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +11% / +36% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.6 bn | 37.1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −7% / +10% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.6 bn | 25.1 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −18% / −9% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.8 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +17% / +44% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +39% / +31% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.8 bn | 14.3 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +40% / +238% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.7 bn | 31.2 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +152% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.0 bn | 14.2 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −19% / −16% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 4.0 bn | 61.9 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −5% / +29% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.6 bn | 10.7 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −13% / +20% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.2 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −18% / −11% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.6 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +61% / +15% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.5 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −53% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 108.9 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −8% / −48% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 884.6 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −33% / −66% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 553.2 m | 36.1 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −7% / +41% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 234.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 73.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.1 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −82% / −97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LSG.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (NOK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 26.78 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 47.21 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 70.94 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 29.16 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 57.55 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 94.48 Total return 128% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 31.76 Total return -19% · Per year -4% | 70.15 Total return 74% · Per year 12% | 125.84 Total return 207% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 14.39
- Net margin± 10.07
- Annual revenue growth± 7.82
- Annual dilution± 0.85
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lerøy Seafood Group is a Norwegian seafood group integrated from salmon farming through value-added processing and distribution, with a strategy aiming for NOK 50 billion in revenue by 2030 while cutting costs. The current context, marked by cod quota cuts and a European Commission investigation, makes execution of this plan closely watched by investors and the public 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has full vertical integration, from sea-based production to distribution, giving it control over the value chain 1.
- Long experience in the global seafood industry allows effective management of operational and logistical crises 1.
- Investments in new sea-based production technology have already produced better biological results than traditional methods 1.
Weaknesses
- The group's cost base is described in its own report as too high, making further efficiency measures necessary 1.
- Whitefish activities are vulnerable to fishing quota decisions, which have been repeatedly reduced 1.
- Feed conversion in submersible pens remains weaker than desired and needs optimisation 1.
Opportunities
Threats
- The European Commission's investigation into exchange of commercial information could lead to sanctions or other negative consequences 1.
- Damages claims initiated in the UK by supermarket chains and a consumer group could create significant financial costs 1.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and volatile energy and transport prices could affect trade routes to Asia 1.
Risks
- Biological riskhigh
Disease and parasites in salmon farming could reduce harvested volumes and raise treatment costs; the group identifies this as a key risk 1.
- European Commission antitrust investigationhigh
A Statement of Objections sent to the company in January 2024 could lead to sanctions if a final decision is adopted and upheld; the company rejects the allegations 1.
- UK damages claimsmedium
Lawsuits brought by supermarket chains and a consumer group could create financial obligations, although the company considers them baseless 1.
- Cuts to fishing quotasmedium
Quotas for Norwegian whitefish species continue to fall, which could further weigh on whitefish volumes and profitability 1.
- Energy and logistics costslow
Tensions in the Middle East have raised fuel and transport costs, and a prolonged situation could weigh on margins 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The group achieved important goals in 2025, including a substantial improvement in biological production in Farming and surpassing the operational EBIT target in VAPS&D 1.
- If the cost reduction programme is delivered, the company could reach a more efficient cost structure and better margins from 2027 1.
- New sea-based production technology offers potential for biological improvement, which could support volume growth over the long term 1.
What would break the thesis
- Management describes the current cost base as too high, and the effects of reductions will not appear in the profit and loss statement until late 2026 1.
- The European investigation and UK damages claims could generate unforeseen costs that cannot yet be assessed 1.
- Repeated cuts to whitefish quotas could limit volumes and make the whitefish segment less profitable 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the NOK 1 billion cost reduction2026
- Final decision of the European Commission in the salmon investigation2027
- Farming harvest volume against the 220 000 GWT target2030
- Progress toward NOK 2 billion operational EBIT in VAPS&D2030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Lerøy Seafood Group ASA is an international seafood group with decentralised operations, organised into independent regional entities, covering the whole value chain from biological production at sea to processing and sales 1. The group aims to become the most sustainable, profitable and fully integrated seafood company in the world, with a focus on quality, food safety and traceability 1. The target of NOK 50 billion in revenue by 2030 rests on growth in Farming and expansion of the VAPS&D segment 1.
Segments
Farming
The Farming segment raises salmon in sea-based systems and targets a harvest volume of 220 000 GWT in 2030 1. The company has invested in new sea-phase technology, such as submersible cages and laser technology, which have reduced the number of sea lice treatments 1.
Market context
Overall demand for seafood remains, according to the company, solid, although some market segments were affected by broader economic conditions in 2024 and 2025 1. Higher energy and logistics costs, linked to the situation in the Middle East in early 2026, affected trade routes to key Asian markets 1.
The Norwegian regulatory framework is a key factor for the sector; Lerøy hopes the policies in the April 2025 Aquaculture White Paper will be developed through an open, fact-based process 1. Acceptance of Norwegian aquaculture by consumers and governments will influence market access and operating costs 1.
Trends
- Cuts to fishing quotasheadwind
Quotas for cod, saithe and haddock are changing again in 2026, affecting the operating base of whitefish activities; the company expects the cod quota could bottom out in 2026 1. If this trend stabilises, pressure on whitefish volumes could ease.
- New technology in sea-based productiontailwind
Submersible cages and laser technology have already shown reductions in sea lice treatments, and the company hopes for significant biological improvements 1. Optimising feed conversion in submersible pens remains an open objective 1.
- Energy and logistics cost pressureheadwind
Higher energy and transport costs linked to the Middle East situation in early 2026 pose an operational challenge for the group 1. The company's experience in handling such situations could limit the impact.
- Cost reduction and capital disciplinemixed
The cost reduction programme, which could deliver savings of NOK 1 billion in 2026, will be reflected in the profit and loss statement only late in 2026 and into 2027 1. The emphasis on disciplined capital allocation is a strategic shift from the earlier growth period 1.
Competitive position
Lerøy operates in a global salmon and seafood industry where competition is broad, and the primary sources do not explicitly name competitors. In its documents the company benchmarks itself against other Norwegian aquaculture producers, particularly on ESG performance 1.
The European Commission's investigation into exchange of commercially sensitive information in the Norwegian salmon market places the company in a specific competitive and regulatory context in which several exporters are targeted at the same time 1. The outcome could change competitive conditions for the whole sector 1.
- Austevoll Seafood
Majority shareholder of Lerøy and active in Norwegian seafood; the source does not give a US ticker.
- Other Norwegian aquaculture producers
Companies the report cites as ranking highly with international ESG rating agencies; names are not specified in the source.
- Norwegian salmon exporters targeted by the European Commission
Group of exporters that received a Statement of Objections; full identities are not detailed in the source.
- British supermarket chains
Claimants in UK damages actions that also target group companies; not direct competitors but a commercial pressure.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Lerøy Seafood Group ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.