olivLaw · European equity research
Liven AS LVN1T.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · ISIN EE3100003112 · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
Liven AS is a Tallinn property developer that builds and sells homes and commercial space, mainly in Tallinn and its surroundings. It signed a record number of purchase contracts in 2024, but revenue and profit stayed modest amid a weak market and intense competition, so how sales develop this year is central.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Liven AS (LVN1T.TL) stock was 3.22 EUR (−0.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 38.2 m EUR, P/E 70.0 on diluted EPS of 0.05 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.66%, 52-week range 3.22–3.98 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 29.4
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.21 – 3.44
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.03 · band width 6.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.43 / unavailable
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.05 / -0.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.3% | −0.6% | −4.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.6% | −4.2% | −5.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | unavailable | +4.3% | unavailable | — |
| Year to date | unavailable | +7.5% | unavailable | — |
| 1 year | unavailable | +9.9% | unavailable | −7.5% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +49.8% | unavailable | −8.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +42.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 35.8 m | 27.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −23.8% |
| Net income | 775.0 k | 558.0 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −28.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −28.1% |
| net % | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 5.9 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 47.3 m EUR
- Net debt
- 41.4 m EUR
- Equity
- 18.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 78.3 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 2.59x
- Current ratio
- 4.25x
- ROE
- 3.1%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 35.8 m | 27.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 32.7 m | 23.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 3.1 m | 3.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 868.0 k | 1.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 6.0 k | 647.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 879.0 k | 719.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 104.0 k | 162.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 775.0 k | 558.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.05 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.04 | 0.05 | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.7 m | 5.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Receivables | 1.3 m | 1.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 62.1 m | 67.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 67.5 m | 75.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 388.0 k | 423.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 296.0 k | 401.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 68.6 m | 78.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 9.1 m | 11.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 17.1 m | 6.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 21.3 m | 40.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 28.6 m | 17.7 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 50.4 m | 60.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 18.1 m | 18.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 11.7 m | 11.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 38.2 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.26 – 0.99 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.26 – 0.70 (Mid 0.43)6 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 5.6x – 15.2xHPR1T.TL, NCN1T.TL, PRF1T.TL, SFG1T.TL, TSM1T.TL, TVE1T.TL
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.73 – 0.99 (Mid 0.84)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.8% | 25 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.0% | 33 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 70.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.7% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet45/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality28/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial24/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Liven AS (LVN1T.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 27.3 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth -23.8%; net margin 2.0%; ROE 3.1%.
The estimated value range is 0.49–0.85 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.64 EUR, the price of 3.22 EUR leaves a potential of -80.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -406.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 4.3x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.8%
- Interest coverage: 2.0x
- P/E (TTM): 70.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 479.7 m | 34.4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −4% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.6 m | 7.1 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −10% / −8% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.3 m | 11.7 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −31% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.0 m | 5.1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −12% / −75% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LVN1T.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.76 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 3.13 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 4.73 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 1.40 Total return -54% · Per year -23% | 2.82 Total return -8% · Per year -3% | 4.73 Total return 52% · Per year 15% |
| 5 years | 1.11 Total return -61% · Per year -17% | 2.55 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 4.73 Total return 55% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 0.71
- Net margin± 0.49
- Annual revenue growth± 0.45
- Annual dilution± 0.04
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Liven AS is a Tallinn property developer that builds and sells homes and commercial space, mainly in Tallinn and its surroundings. It signed a record number of purchase contracts in 2024, but revenue and profit stayed modest amid a weak market and intense competition, so how sales develop this year is central 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A reputation for quality and high client satisfaction is a clear strength, confirmed by the independent studies cited in the report 1.
- The company recorded its largest volume of new contracts in its history, pointing to a solid base of future sales 1.
- The portfolio of land and projects at different stages gives visibility on deliveries in the coming years 1.
Weaknesses
- Profitability is low, and return on equity remains well below the company's long-term target 1.
- Revenue depends on the number of units handed over in a given year, which makes financial results volatile from year to year 1.
- Leverage is high, and the construction-loan-adjusted equity ratio is below the long-term target level 1.
Opportunities
- Lower interest rates could reduce financing costs and could stimulate demand for new homes in Tallinn 1.
- Projects in preparation, such as the new site in Nõmme, could expand the company's offer in the period ahead 1.
- Expansion of activity in Berlin could open a new market if the projects prove viable 1.
Risks
- Low profitabilityhigh
Very thin net profit leaves the company vulnerable to any slowdown in home handovers or to rising costs 1.
- Higher indebtednesshigh
Rising construction debt and an equity ratio below target could limit financial flexibility if sales slow 1.
- Volatile demandmedium
Revenue depends on the pace of sales and handovers, and demand was weak for many recent periods 1.
- Price pressuremedium
Falling prices in some districts could reduce margins on future projects 1.
- Dispute with a contractorlow
The company brought a court claim against a general contractor for failing to meet contractual obligations, and the outcome remains uncertain 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The record volume of new contracts in 2024 shows that demand for the company's product has returned, and its quality reputation could support future sales 1.
- Lower interest rates could materially improve financing conditions and housing demand 1.
- A portfolio of projects at different stages provides a delivery pipeline that could lift revenue in the following years 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Development of new contracts and the weekly sales rateQ1 2026
- Number of units handed over and the level of sales revenue2026
- Net margin and return on equity2026
- Level of construction debt and the equity rationext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Liven is a property developer focused on creating homes and commercial spaces that support neighbourhood life, with only a small share of commercial space in its portfolio 1. Its model involves selling units before completion through obligation contracts, with revenue recognised when ownership passes to the buyer 1. In 2024 the company signed 129 new contracts and recognised revenue of 27.3 million EUR, with net profit of only 0.6 million EUR 1.
The development portfolio spans projects in Tallinn, its surroundings and Berlin, with 1,407 homes possible at the end of 2024 1. The company finances projects mainly with construction loans, and financial debt rose, lowering the construction-loan-adjusted equity ratio to 27.9% 1.
The company has built a strong reputation for quality and client satisfaction, with an average score of 9.2 out of 10 over the last 12 months 1. This reputation is an important asset for future sales, although return on equity remained only 3.1% 1.
Segments
Market context
The Tallinn property market has moved past a period of falling demand as interest rates began to decline and financing became more accessible 1. The average Tallinn sale price fell 2.5% in 2024 to 2,992 EUR per square metre, while new-development prices stayed relatively stable 1.
Demand remained under pressure from weak consumer confidence and competition, and in some districts promotional offers were needed to close deals 1. New-development supply grew in the first half of 2024 but levelled off afterwards 1.
Trends
- Falling interest ratestailwind
The gradual decline in Euribor reduced the cost of capital and improved financing conditions for developers and buyers 1. If rates continue to fall, housing demand could recover 1.
- Weak buyer demandheadwind
Low consumer confidence kept sales below normal levels for several years, and sales pace only began to recover in the second half of 2024 1.
- Pressure on pricesheadwind
Sale prices of new developments have stayed under pressure from competition, and in some projects offer prices fell by more than 10% compared with earlier years 1.
- Rising investor interestmixed
Banks and other investors showed greater interest in financing projects in 2024, making funding easier to obtain 1. The effect on development costs remains mixed given construction cost inflation 1.
Competitive position
Competition in Tallinn is intense, especially in districts with many developers, where discounts are needed to sell units 1. Liven ranked first in a brand reputation study of Estonian property developers, ahead of Merko and YIT Eesti 1.
The main competitors are other property developers in Estonia, and competition centres on price, location and reputation 1. The company differentiates itself through design and quality, but prices and demand are under pressure across the market 1.
- Merko Ehitus
Estonian developer and builder, cited in the reputation study as the second most reputable property developer 1.
- YIT Eesti
Estonian arm of a construction group, named in the same reputation ranking as the third developer 1.
- Other Tallinn developers
Local companies developing competing residential projects in the same districts, where price reductions are frequent 1.
- Local homebuilders
Smaller firms competing in the mid-size housing segment and influencing offer prices 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202421 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Liven AS · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.