olivLaw · European equity research
Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka Spółka Akcyjna LWB.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLLWBGD00016 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka is a Polish coal producer active in the extraction and sale of thermal coal. Its current relevance comes from the planned transfer of a major block of shares from ENEA to the Polish State, announced in 2022 and due to be completed by the end of 2023.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka Spółka Akcyjna (LWB.WA) stock was 23.75 PLN (−1.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 808.6 m PLN, P/E 4.6 on diluted EPS of 5.15 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 10.53%, beta -0.24, 52-week range 17.58–37.00 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 23.51 – 27.18
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 14.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.40 / 23.49
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.36 / -0.12
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.9% | −0.6% | −7.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.4% | −4.2% | +13.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.5% | +4.3% | −5.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.4% | +7.5% | +23.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.8% | +9.9% | +1.8 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −36.6% | +49.8% | −86.4 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −39.4% | +42.8% | −82.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 3.5, median 9.0, max 9.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +34.4% | +0.1% |
| Net income | 72.9 m | 307.1 m | 175.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +321.3% | −42.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.14 | 9.03 | 5.15 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +322.0% | −43.0% |
| net % | 4.0% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
| Free cash flow | -126.5 m | 383.9 m | -40.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 475.1 m PLN
- Financial debt
- 1.8 m PLN
- Net debt
- -473.3 m PLN
- Equity
- 3.7 bn PLN
- Total assets
- 4.8 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 2.09x
- ROE
- 4.8%
- ROA
- 3.7%
- FCF margin
- -1.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 248.7 m | 566.2 m | 408.4 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | 95.2 m | 389.9 m | 200.3 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 9.6 m | 8.3 m | 13.6 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 93.2 m | 382.2 m | 219.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | 20.2 m | 75.2 m | 44.0 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Net income | 72.9 m | 307.1 m | 175.3 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.14 | 9.03 | 5.15 | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 241.6 m | 600.2 m | 475.1 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Receivables | 268.3 m | 325.7 m | 203.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 91.1 m | 99.7 m | 195.9 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 611.3 m | 1.0 bn | 938.2 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 59.2 m | 56.0 m | 59.6 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Accounts payable | 308.5 m | 423.0 m | 377.4 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.9 m | 4.8 m | 1.8 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 360.4 m | 515.5 m | 449.2 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 34.1 m | 34.0 m | 34.0 m | esef· 02 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 477.0 m | 785.9 m | 624.4 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Capex | 603.5 m | 402.0 m | 664.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Free cash flow | -126.5 m ≈ | 383.9 m ≈ | -40.3 m ≈ | esef· 02 May 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | -611.0 m | -417.4 m | -651.4 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.1 m | -9.9 m | -98.1 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 86.0 k | 85.0 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 808.6 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.1% | 20 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.2% | 67 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -23.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 14.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 4.6x | 79 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -5.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality27/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka Spółka Akcyjna (LWB.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn PLN in 2022; YoY growth 0.1%; net margin 7.2%; ROE 4.8%.
The estimated value range is 28.67–60.43 PLN per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.04 PLN, the price of 23.75 PLN leaves a potential of 77.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 43.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 14.8x
- Current ratio: 2.1x
- P/E (TTM): 4.6x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 5.1%
- FCF conversion: -23.0%
- FCF yield: -5.0%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| LWB.WALubelski Węgiel Bogdanka Spółka Akcyjna | 808.6 m | 4.6 | 4.8% | 7.2% | +0.1% | +17% / −29% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LWB.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 13.42 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 23.77 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 35.88 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 11.90 Total return -27% · Per year -10% | 23.82 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 39.64 Total return 107% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 10.55 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 23.87 Total return 53% · Per year 9% | 43.79 Total return 155% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 5.96
- Net margin± 4.17
- Annual revenue growth± 3.57
- Annual dilution± 0.35
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka is a Polish coal producer active in the extraction and sale of thermal coal. Its current relevance comes from the planned transfer of a major block of shares from ENEA to the Polish State, announced in 2022 and due to be completed by the end of 2023 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is an integrated producer in Poland with large mining assets and a solid financial base, reflected in positive operating cash flows for 2021 1.
- Support from the majority shareholder and the planned transfer to the Polish State could provide long-term strategic stability 1.
- The impairment testing and audit described in the report point to careful management of asset values 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a single energy product, coal, ties revenue to demand in a sector under regulatory pressure 1.
- Provisions for mine closure and land reclamation are significant and could rise if estimates change 1.
- Comparability of financial data across years is affected by the restatement under the IAS 16 amendment 1.
Opportunities
- If the transition to a new ownership structure brings additional resources, the company could finance modernisation projects more easily 1.
- Diversification into related assets or short-term investments could reduce dependence on the core mining business 1.
- Extending the mine's life, if reserves are confirmed, could support activity over the long term 1.
Risks
- Energy transition riskhigh
Falling coal demand in favour of renewables could reduce volumes sold and revenue over the long term 1.
- Geological riskhigh
Geological problems in coal mines can interrupt or slow extraction and raise unexpected costs 1.
- Closure provision riskmedium
Estimates for mine closure and land reclamation could increase, which would reduce profitability 1.
- Shareholder transition riskmedium
A delay or change in the share transfer to the Polish State could create uncertainty about the company's strategy 1.
- Accounting comparability risklow
Changes in accounting policy can make year-on-year comparison difficult without careful adjustment 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the share transfer to the Polish State is completed, the company could gain a shareholder with strong funding capacity and a clearer long-term strategy 1.
- Positive operating cash flows in 2021 show the mining business can generate cash, which could support mine investment 1.
- If reserves confirm the estimated mine life, the assets could be used for longer, reducing impairment risk 1.
What would break the thesis
- Climate pressure and coal regulation could reduce long-term demand, which would weigh on the company's revenue 1.
- Geological risks and mine closure costs could erode margins, especially if unexpected events occur 1.
- The restatement of financial data after the IAS 16 amendment makes year-on-year comparisons harder for investors relying on headline figures 1.
What to watch
- Completion of the share transfer to the Polish State2023
- Q1 results and any adjustments to closure provisionsQ1 2027
- Evolution of thermal coal demand in Poland and energy policy2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka group's core activity is the extraction and sale of coal, with operations in Poland. According to the 2022 annual report, the company recorded for 2021 sales revenue of 2449.198 million PLN after restatement 1. Financial reporting is affected by the application of the amendment to IAS 16, which changed the treatment of coal revenue obtained while driving mine workings.
The shareholder structure is dominated by ENEA S.A., which held 64.57% of the parent company as at 31 December 2022, while the ultimate controlling entity is the Polish State 1. The group includes consolidated subsidiaries, and its financial statements follow IFRS as adopted by the EU and are reported in ESEF format 1.
The company prepares its accounts on a going-concern basis, and the impairment test performed for 2022 found no loss of value, according to the financial notes 1. Key estimates include the mine's useful life and coal reserves, which directly affect asset values and closure provisions 1.
Segments
Market context
The reference market is thermal coal in Poland, where demand is tied to power generation and to environmental and climate policy. The annual report does not detail price or demand dynamics in this text, so conclusions rest mainly on the company's financial data 1. For 2021, revenue rose from the initially approved level after restatement 1.
The regulatory and ownership context is an important factor: the change in shareholder structure, with the Polish State entering, could influence production policy and long-term investment 1. The source document does not, however, provide a detailed timetable for these changes.
Trends
- Energy transition in Polandheadwind
Pressure to reduce coal use in power generation could limit long-term demand for the company's products if climate policies intensify 1.
- State ownershiptailwind
The planned transfer of a major block of shares to the Polish State could bring more strategic stability and easier access to financing if the transaction is completed 1.
- IAS 16 amendment and accounting for coal from mine developmentmixed
The change in accounting rule altered the size of reported revenue and costs, so comparability with earlier years depends on the restatement made in the report 1.
- Mine closure and land reclamation costsheadwind
Rising provisions for mine closure and land reclamation could weigh on long-term profitability, especially if estimates change 1.
Competitive position
Direct competition comes from other thermal coal producers in Poland and the region, as well as from alternative energy sources replacing coal in the energy mix. The source document does not name competitors, so this list cannot be confirmed from the text provided 1.
Competitive position depends on extraction costs, access to reserves, and the ability to sustain production over the long term. The gap versus rivals could widen if the cost structure or mine useful life changes 1.
- Other Polish thermal coal producers
Local competition comes from other mining operators in Poland, whose identity is not specified in the source text.
- European Union coal producers
Regional competition could come from operators in other European countries, particularly if transport or import costs shift.
- Renewable energy sources
Wind and solar power compete indirectly with coal in electricity generation, with a bigger effect if support policies grow.
- Imported coal and gas
Imported coal and natural gas can compete in the energy market, depending on prices and energy policy.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202202 May 2023
- Annual report 202129 Mar 2022
- Annual report 202102 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka Spółka Akcyjna · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.