olivLaw · European equity research
Macfarlane Group PLC MACF.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0005518872 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Macfarlane Group PLC designs, manufactures and distributes protective packaging for customers in the UK and Europe, a business that matters because weak demand and price pressure have slowed growth. Group revenue fell to 270.4 million GBP in 2024, while profit before tax rose to 20.9 million GBP.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF.L) stock was 0.83 GBP (+1.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 130.4 m GBP, P/E 8.4 on diluted EPS of 0.10 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.92%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 0.60–0.85 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.79 – 0.85
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 7.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.80 / 0.71
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.00 / 0.00
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.8% | −0.6% | −1.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.4% | −4.2% | +13.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +21.3% | +4.3% | +17.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +14.6% | +7.5% | +7.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +21.3% | +9.9% | +11.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −21.1% | +49.8% | −70.9 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −37.5% | +42.8% | −80.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 10.6, median 13.5, max 16.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 264.5 m | 290.4 m | 280.7 m | 270.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.8% | −3.3% | −3.7% |
| Net income | 12.6 m | 15.6 m | 15.0 m | 15.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +24.1% | −4.2% | +3.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.10 | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +23.8% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% |
| Free cash flow | 21.7 m | 14.7 m | 31.3 m | 22.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 12.9 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 14.8 m GBP
- Net debt
- 1.9 m GBP
- Equity
- 123.3 m GBP
- Total assets
- 246.9 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.12x
- Current ratio
- 1.18x
- ROE
- 13.1%
- ROA
- 6.6%
- FCF margin
- 8.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 264.5 m | 290.4 m | 280.7 m | 270.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 175.0 m | 192.4 m | 175.0 m | 165.1 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 89.5 m | 98.1 m | 105.7 m | 105.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 20.1 m | 21.5 m | 22.1 m | 23.6 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 1.4 m | 1.6 m | 1.8 m | 2.7 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 18.7 m | 19.9 m | 20.3 m | 20.9 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 4.9 m | 4.2 m | 5.3 m | 5.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 12.6 m | 15.6 m | 15.0 m | 15.5 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.10 | — | — | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.03 | 0.03 | — | — | esef· 02 May 2023derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 12.3 m | 5.7 m | 7.7 m | 12.9 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | 58.5 m | 59.3 m | 53.8 m | 55.0 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 21.3 m | 22.6 m | 17.5 m | 19.0 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 92.1 m | 88.3 m | 79.2 m | 87.5 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.1 m | 7.9 m | 9.2 m | 10.6 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 216.2 m | 216.2 m | 221.2 m | 246.9 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 61.0 m | 54.6 m | 50.6 m | 50.3 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 9.8 m | 9.1 m | 7.2 m | 14.8 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 79.7 m | 72.4 m | 66.5 m | 74.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 121.3 m | 110.1 m | 106.7 m | 123.7 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 94.9 m | 106.0 m | 114.6 m | 123.3 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 157.9 m | 158.1 m | — | — | esef· 02 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 23.8 m | 18.0 m | 33.5 m | 25.4 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 2.1 m | 3.3 m | 2.2 m | 2.9 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 21.7 m ≈ | 14.7 m ≈ | 31.3 m ≈ | 22.5 m ≈ | esef· 23 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -9.0 m | -11.6 m | -16.6 m | -13.5 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.9 m | -13.2 m | -15.3 m | -6.0 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 4.3 m | 5.1 m | 5.5 m | 5.8 m | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 392.0 k | esef· 23 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 130.4 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality61
- Growth6
- Balance sheet73
- Returns80
- Valuation91
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.7% | 50 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.7% | 40 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 144.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.7% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.4x | 83 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 17.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.7% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 25.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial6/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MACFARLANE GROUP PLC (MACF.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 270.4 m GBP in 2024; YoY growth -3.7%; net margin 5.7%; ROE 13.1%.
The estimated value range is 1.11–1.71 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.42 GBP, the price of 0.82 GBP leaves a potential of 71.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 41.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 144.9%
- Interest coverage: 8.7x
- P/E (TTM): 8.4x
- FCF yield: 17.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 25.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| MACF.LMacfarlane Group PLC | 130.4 m | 8.4 | 13.1% | 5.7% | −3.7% | +19% / −25% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MACF.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.47 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 0.83 Total return 1% · Per year 1% | 1.25 Total return 52% · Per year 52% |
| 3 years | 0.42 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 0.84 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 1.40 Total return 70% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 0.38 Total return -54% · Per year -14% | 0.86 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 1.57 Total return 90% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 0.21
- Net margin± 0.15
- Annual revenue growth± 0.13
- Annual dilution± 0.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Macfarlane Group PLC designs, manufactures and distributes protective packaging for customers in the UK and Europe, a business that matters because weak demand and price pressure have slowed growth. Group revenue fell to 270.4 million GBP in 2024 1, while profit before tax rose to 20.9 million GBP 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The site network and in-house manufacturing support close customer service and a stock and serve model 1. The customer base is diversified, reducing dependence on any single sector 1.
- Gross margins are high in both segments and operating cash generation is strong 1. The balance sheet is solid, with extensive banking facilities 1.
- Industry experience and internal culture are presented as advantages, supported by a high Net Promoter Score 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue declined in 2024 and price pressure weighed on the distribution segment 1. Segment operating profit slipped slightly 1.
- The group depends on good quality local management and on retaining key staff, which is a sensitive point 1.
- Operating costs are higher after the inflation of earlier years, and controlling them relies on cost reduction measures 1.
Opportunities
- New business and sales programmes could restore revenue growth in 2025 1. Demand for sustainable solutions could support sales 1.
- The acquisition pipeline in the UK and Northern Europe could expand the business if deals are well integrated 1.
- Environmental regulation could support demand for more efficient packaging if the group adapts its offer 1.
Threats
- Weak demand in the UK and European economies could limit revenue growth 1. Economic uncertainty remains high 1.
- Corrugate manufacturers entering distribution could intensify competitive pressure 1.
- Raw material, energy and wage costs, plus EPR fees, could reduce profitability if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
Risks
- Strategic changes in the markethigh
If the group fails to respond to shifts in demand and competition, its ability to grow revenue could be affected 1.
- Uncertain economic environmenthigh
Economic conditions in the UK and other markets could affect delivery of strategic initiatives 1.
- Environmental regulation and EPR costsmedium
EPR fees and packaging requirements could raise costs, and delays in adapting could affect customers and investors 1.
- Supply chain and raw material pricesmedium
Volatile paper, timber and polymer prices could erode profitability if costs cannot be passed on 1.
- Acquisitions and integrationlow
Acquisitions could fail if key people or customers are lost after a deal, or if performance falls short of expectations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If new business converts into revenue growth in 2025, the group could return to a growth path 1.
- High gross margins and strong cash generation could provide room for acquisitions and investment 1.
- Demand for sustainable solutions could strengthen the group's position if its offer meets regulatory needs 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Revenue trend in the distribution segment and the effect of new business2025
- Effect of EPR fees and wage increases on margins2025
- Integration of the Pitreavie acquisition and results of recent acquisitions2025
- Development of net debt and banking facilities after renewalnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group designs, manufactures and distributes protective packaging across the UK and Europe, with 39 sites and more than 20,000 customers throughout the UK, according to the annual report 1. Its model relies on a 'stock and serve' approach, in-house specialist manufacturing and more than 1,000 global suppliers 1. The core offer is supported by local service centres close to customers and solutions that reduce packaging use 1.
The group pursues organic growth through innovative and sustainable solutions and an acquisition strategy aiming at around two deals per year 1. The report cites 20 acquisitions since 2014 and an active pipeline in the UK and mainland Europe 1. The financial position is solid, with net bank debt low at the end of 2024 1.
The company describes its advantage as packaging industry experience, customer relationships and internal culture, while noting its dependence on good quality local management 1. For 2025 management expects another challenging year, with higher employment costs and EPR fees, alongside new business momentum 1.
Segments
Packaging Distribution
The distribution segment generated revenue of 228.8 million GBP in 2024 1, down because of weak demand and selling price deflation, partly offset by new business and the Gottlieb and Allpack Direct acquisitions 1. Gross margin rose to 37.1% 1, while adjusted operating profit slipped slightly 1.
Market context
The UK and European protective packaging market was weak in 2024, with subdued demand and higher competitive pressure, including from corrugate manufacturers entering distribution 1. The group expects the market to remain difficult in 2025, though it reports a strong new business pipeline 1.
Environmental rules such as the plastic tax and EPR are changing how customers choose packaging and increasing demand for sustainable solutions 1. The company sees these changes as potential opportunities if it adapts its offer, but also as a source of cost pressure 1.
Trends
- Weak demand and price pressureheadwind
Weak packaging demand and selling price deflation reduced sales, and customers increasingly benchmark suppliers 1. The effect could be limited if new business and cost control offset lower volumes 1.
- Packaging regulation and sustainabilitymixed
The plastic tax and EPR levy add costs and push suppliers toward greener alternatives 1. If the group can show emissions-reduction solutions, these rules could become an advantage 1.
- Higher employment and operating costsheadwind
Increases to National Insurance Contributions and the National Minimum Wage from April 2025 add significant operating costs 1. The company says cost mitigation actions are being taken 1.
- Acquisitions and consolidationtailwind
The group has an active pipeline of protective packaging acquisitions in the UK and Northern Europe, and the Pitreavie acquisition was concluded in January 2025 1. If integration succeeds, acquisitions could support growth 1.
Competitive position
Competition is intensifying from corrugate manufacturers moving into distribution as their volumes decline 1. Major customers also benchmark suppliers, which adds pressure on margins 1.
The group responds with its Follow the Customer programme in Europe, the Significant Six selling proposition and the Packaging Optimiser tool 1. The strategy rests on service and sustainability rather than price alone 1.
- Corrugate manufacturers entering distribution
Corrugate producers expanding into packaging distribution are named in the report as a source of competitive pressure 1.
- Protective packaging suppliers under customer benchmarking
The report mentions benchmarking activity by major customers across suppliers, without naming specific competitors 1.
- Competitors in UK packaging distribution
The company faces competition in UK distribution, but no specific competitors are identified in the sources 1.
- Operators in Northern Europe
The group targets acquisitions in Northern Europe, where other protective packaging operators exist but are not identified in the sources 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202423 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202202 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Macfarlane Group PLC · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.