olivLaw · European equity research
Mobico Group PLC MCG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0006215205 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Mobico Group PLC is a public transport operator whose Alsa unit runs coach and bus services mainly in Spain and across several European countries, alongside divisions in the United Kingdom and North America. Over the 15 months to 31 March 2026, adjusted revenue rose 11.5% to GBP 1839.1 million, making the group relevant to the shift toward cleaner mobility.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Mobico Group PLC (MCG.L) stock was 0.44 GBP (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 262.0 m GBP, beta 0.90, 52-week range 0.17–0.44 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 84.0
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.20 – 0.51
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.78 · band width 88.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.28 / 0.25
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.05 / 0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +89.2% | −0.6% | +89.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +76.6% | −4.2% | +80.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +79.4% | +4.3% | +75.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +90.8% | +7.5% | +83.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +68.2% | +9.9% | +58.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −30.4% | +49.8% | −80.2 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −82.0% | +42.8% | −124.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +8.3% |
| Net income | -185.3 m | -802.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.34 | -1.35 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -5.9% | -23.5% |
| Free cash flow | 101.8 m | 63.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 244.5 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.5 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 1.2 bn GBP
- Equity
- 200.1 m GBP
- Total assets
- 3.2 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 7.33x
- Current ratio
- 0.60x
- ROE
- -130.4%
- ROA
- -22.0%
- FCF margin
- 1.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | -43.2 m | -519.9 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 80.4 m | 95.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -120.1 m | -609.3 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 64.1 m | 184.5 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Net income | -185.3 m | -802.8 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.34 | -1.35 | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 356.3 m | 244.5 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Receivables | 573.1 m | 547.5 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 33.7 m | 34.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 842.4 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 4.1 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 960.6 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 271.2 m | 208.9 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 1.0 bn | 200.1 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 549.9 m | 595.5 m | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 230.0 m | 259.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 128.2 m | 195.6 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 101.8 m ≈ | 63.4 m ≈ | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -103.1 m | -190.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -62.5 m | -157.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 2.2 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 262.0 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
4% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 100% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MOBICO GROUP PLC (MCG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 bn GBP in 2024; YoY growth 8.3%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| MCG.LMobico Group PLC | 262.0 m | — | — | — | +8.3% | +100% / −34% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MCG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Mobico Group PLC is a public transport operator whose Alsa unit runs coach and bus services mainly in Spain and across several European countries, alongside divisions in the United Kingdom and North America. Over the 15 months to 31 March 2026, adjusted revenue rose 11.5% to GBP 1839.1 million, making the group relevant to the shift toward cleaner mobility 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group holds a leading position in Spain, with high contract retention rates and a diversified base of public transport services.
- Alsa has tendering expertise, advanced IT systems and dynamic pricing, which support its ability to manage complex networks.
- Gross cost contracts and cost protection mechanisms reduce exposure to revenue risk and fuel price swings.
Weaknesses
- The UK Coach division recorded operating losses and falling revenue, while competitive pressure remains high in the United Kingdom.
- WeDriveU suffered losses on loss-making public contracts, and claim provisions for litigation and damages require significant resources.
- Heavy reliance on Spain exposes the group to regulatory and funding changes in that country.
Opportunities
- Expansion in Saudi Arabia and in Spanish health transport could bring growth in fragmented markets.
- The Sustainable Mobility Law and European funds could support investment in low-emission fleets.
- Bus franchising reform in the United Kingdom could open new contracts for Alsa's experience.
Threats
- High-speed rail could reduce demand on long-haul routes if rail fares fall.
- Loss of contracts or lower volumes in markets such as Morocco could affect revenue and profitability.
- Cost pressure from public clients could limit margins in the North American division.
Risks
- WMATA litigationhigh
The group has started legal action against WMATA, and the outcome of these proceedings is uncertain and could affect recovery of losses.
- Competition in UK Coachmedium
Intense competition in the United Kingdom could keep pressure on volumes and revenue in the near term.
- Losses on German rail contractsmedium
The German rail contracts remain loss-making, and the revised terms could have a limited positive effect if costs rise.
- Shortage of skilled staffmedium
A shortage of drivers and employee discontent could lead to strikes or attrition, affecting service reliability.
- Regulation and public fundingmedium
A reduction or withdrawal of government support for public transport could worsen the group's economics.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rising passenger volumes in Spain and Alsa's solid results could support continued growth in revenue and operating profit.
- Diversification into health transport, the Middle East and new international contracts could reduce reliance on a single segment.
- Exiting loss-making contracts and integrating UK Coach into Alsa could improve margins over the medium term.
What would break the thesis
- Competition from high-speed rail could erode the market share of long-haul coach lines in Spain.
- Losses in the UK coach division and on WeDriveU contracts could continue if competitive pressure persists.
- Litigation, damage provisions and uncertainty over US contracts could weigh on future results.
What to watch
- Approval of the new Spanish concession map and the evolution of Alsa margins2026
- Outcome of legal action against WMATAnext 10-K
- UK Coach performance after integration into Alsa2027
- Impact of revised German rail contracts on group results2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group provides bus, coach and rail transport services, focused on reducing reliance on private cars through public transport. Alsa generates most of the revenue, operating long-haul, regional and urban services in Spain, while WeDriveU is active in North America 1.
The business model rests on medium-term contracts with local and national authorities, some on gross cost terms that carry no revenue risk. Alsa reports a retention rate of about 95% and a win rate on new bids of about 25%, which supports predictable growth 1.
The group integrated the UK coach business National Express into Alsa and sold North American School Bus in July 2025. This reorganisation aims to reduce costs and simplify the structure, led in particular by Alsa 1.
Segments
Alsa
Alsa is the largest segment, with 75% of its revenue generated in Spain. It covers long-haul, regional and urban services, operations in Morocco, Portugal, Switzerland and France, and a growing health transport business. A Saudi Arabian contract worth EUR 500 million in total value extends its international reach 1.
WeDriveU
WeDriveU provides paratransit, urban bus and corporate and university shuttle services in North America. The five largest contracts account for 38% of the business, and the group exited the loss-making CARTA and WMATA contracts, which could support profitability if trends continue 1.
Market context
Transport is a major source of CO2 emissions in many economies, and reducing dependence on private cars is a public policy goal. The group states that one bus can replace many car journeys, and urban and regional transport markets are dominated by public tenders with competition. WeDriveU's US transit addressable market is estimated at USD 4 billion 1.
In Spain, rail liberalisation and the growth of high-speed corridors put pressure on long-haul coach routes, while government initiatives such as the single ticket support mobility. The Sustainable Mobility Law could unlock European green funding, and the redrawn concession map could reduce the number of concessions but with lower margins 1.
Trends
- Rail liberalisation in Spainheadwind
Growth of high-speed rail routes and liberalisation compete with long-haul coaches, affecting several lines. Alsa responds with service quality and dynamic pricing.
- Sustainable Mobility Lawmixed
The law published in December 2025 favours low-carbon public transport and could unlock European funding. Reorganising concessions could mean larger but fewer contracts.
- Transition to zero-emission vehiclesmixed
The group targets a net zero fleet by 2040 and has nearly doubled its ZEV count over the last 12 months. The required investment could weigh on margins if subsidies do not cover the costs.
- Cost pressure in the United Statesheadwind
US public clients seek cost efficiency, which led to losses on some WeDriveU contracts. Standardising operations and optimising the fleet are measures meant to reduce this risk.
Competitive position
In Spain, Alsa faces competition from high-speed rail, and in the United Kingdom competition in the coach sector has increased considerably. In urban and public transport segments, winning tenders depends on service quality and costs. The group responds with digitalisation, its 360 fares project and integration of operations 1.
In North America, WeDriveU operates in transit and corporate shuttle markets with a market share of about 15% in shuttle and 5% in transit. Cost pressure from public clients is constant, and local competitors can influence contract prices 1.
- High-speed rail operators in Spain
Compete directly with long-haul coach lines on routes such as Madrid-Asturias, Madrid-Galicia and Barcelona-Valencia, according to the source 1.
- Regional bus operators in Spain
Take part in tenders for regional and urban transport contracts, where Alsa seeks to keep its leading position 1.
- US paratransit operators
Compete for public transit contracts in North America, where price pressure is significant 1.
- UK coach operators
Intensify competition in the British coach market, which has put pressure on UK Coach volumes and revenue 1.
News & filings
In the press
- ‘My shirt is wringing wet’: National Express bus drivers speak out about 40C conditions during heatwavesThe Guardian World · 20 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Mobico Group PLC · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.