olivLaw · European equity research
Medicalgorithmics S.A. MDG.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLMDCLG00015 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Medicalgorithmics is a Polish provider of telemedicine technologies for cardiac diagnostics, focused on ECG signal analysis, with a large part of its activity tied to the US market. For 2023 the company reports a revenue mix concentrated in the US, which makes reimbursement changes there especially relevant. About 41% of consolidated revenue in 2023 came from diagnostic services for patients in the United States.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Medicalgorithmics S.A. (MDG.WA) stock was 20.50 PLN (−1.44% on the day), with market capitalisation 197.5 m PLN, beta 0.60, 52-week range 20.50–36.90 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 20.7
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 20.80 – 26.69
- below the lower band · %B -0.05 · band width 24.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.27 / 27.77
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.12 / -0.80
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −18.7% | −0.6% | −18.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −25.6% | −4.2% | −21.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −20.8% | +4.3% | −25.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −39.0% | +7.5% | −46.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −34.1% | +9.9% | −44.0 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −28.8% | +49.8% | −78.7 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −0.7% | +42.8% | −43.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 48.3 m | 62.7 m | 43.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +29.7% | −31.3% |
| Net income | -180.6 m | -11.9 m | -578.0 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -39.73 | -2.08 | -0.06 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -373.6% | -18.9% | -1.3% |
| Free cash flow | -16.4 m | 6.3 m | -306.0 k |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 25.5 m PLN
- Financial debt
- 0 PLN
- Net debt
- -25.5 m PLN
- Equity
- 92.6 m PLN
- Total assets
- 121.6 m PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 3.52x
- ROE
- -0.6%
- ROA
- -0.5%
- FCF margin
- -0.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 48.3 m | 62.7 m | 43.1 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | -9.6 m | 17.2 m | 433.0 k | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.2 m | 4.0 m | 2.4 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| EBITDA | -5.4 m ≈ | 21.2 m ≈ | 2.8 m ≈ | esef· 01 May 2024derived |
| Interest expense | 620.0 k | 575.0 k | 1.5 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -7.0 m | 25.3 m | -238.0 k | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | -438.0 k | -216.0 k | 340.0 k | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Net income | -180.6 m | -11.9 m | -578.0 k | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | -39.73 | -2.08 | -0.06 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 11.7 m | 26.2 m | 25.5 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | 25.1 m | 21.1 m | 8.4 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 0 | 8.8 m | 9.3 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 36.7 m | 56.1 m | 43.2 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 27.0 m | 2.0 m | 2.3 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 114.4 m | 122.0 m | 121.6 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 18.4 m | 4.5 m | 4.4 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 8.1 m | 0 | 0 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 40.3 m | 10.3 m | 12.3 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 67.0 m | 27.3 m | 29.1 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 47.4 m | 94.7 m | 92.6 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 4.5 m | 5.7 m | 9.6 m | esef· 01 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -6.5 m | 6.3 m | 182.0 k | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Capex | 9.9 m | 0 | 488.0 k | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | -16.4 m ≈ | 6.3 m ≈ | -306.0 k ≈ | esef· 01 May 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -15.8 m | -1.8 m | 2.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | 17.7 m | 10.0 m | -2.8 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 197.5 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
56% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 0.5% | 0 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Net margin · Quality | -1.3% | 18 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -9.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 61.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality7/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MEDICALGORITHMICS SPÓŁKA AKCYJNA (MDG.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 43.1 m PLN in 2023; YoY growth -31.3%; net margin -1.3%; ROE -0.6%; net debt/EBITDA -9.1x.
The estimated value range is 3.40–3.65 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.51 PLN, the price of 20.50 PLN leaves a potential of -82.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -484.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: -9.1x
- Current ratio: 3.5x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 0.5%
- Net margin: -1.3%
- Interest coverage: 0.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 61.5x
- FCF yield: -0.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| MDG.WAMedicalgorithmics Spółka Akcyjna | 197.5 m | — | -0.6% | -1.3% | −31.3% | −36% / −27% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MDG.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Medicalgorithmics is a Polish provider of telemedicine technologies for cardiac diagnostics, focused on ECG signal analysis, with a large part of its activity tied to the US market. For 2023 the company reports a revenue mix concentrated in the US, which makes reimbursement changes there especially relevant. About 41% of consolidated revenue in 2023 came from diagnostic services for patients in the United States 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group holds its own technologies for ECG analysis and non-invasive diagnosis, developed within its research and development activity.
- Presence in the US market gives access to a structured reimbursement system and a broad patient base through medical partners.
- The group has a solid capital structure, with negative net debt at the end of 2023.
Weaknesses
- A significant part of revenue depends on a single reimbursement system, making the group vulnerable to US policy changes.
- The limited number of payers means that losing a key insurer would have a considerable impact.
- Significant accounting corrections were made to the prior period, pointing to weaknesses in reporting processes.
Opportunities
- The new strategy developed with the main shareholder could open growth opportunities if executed effectively.
- Demand for digital cardiac diagnostics could increase if physicians adopt telemedicine methods more widely.
- Development of new products such as VCAST could broaden the group's service range.
Threats
- Consolidation among private insurers could lead to lower reimbursement rates.
- Future diagnostic technologies could replace solutions developed by the group.
- Economic and geopolitical uncertainty in the region may indirectly affect the group's financial results.
Risks
- Dependence on the US markethigh
A significant part of revenue comes from services to patients in the United States, so regulatory or reimbursement changes there could strongly affect results 1.
- Changes in reimbursement rateshigh
Insurers could reduce rates or narrow the range of reimbursed services, which could negatively affect the group's operating results 1.
- Shift in the mix of testsmedium
If physicians prescribe more tests with lower reimbursement, the average rate per test could fall 1.
- Strategy executionmedium
The group cannot guarantee that all its new strategic objectives will be achieved, and wrong decisions or difficulty adapting could delay development 1.
- Polish tax risklow
Polish tax law changes frequently and can be interpreted differently, and audits may lead to additional obligations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The position in the ECG diagnostics market and proprietary technologies could support growth, especially if the new strategy with the main shareholder delivers results.
- A capital structure with negative net debt offers flexibility for investment in product development.
- Broadening the product range, including VCAST, could diversify revenue sources.
What would break the thesis
- Concentration on a single market and a limited number of payers makes the group vulnerable to reimbursement decisions.
- The emergence of new technologies could reduce demand for existing solutions.
- Significant accounting corrections in the prior period raise questions about reporting quality.
What to watch
- Trend in US revenue and reimbursement rates2024
- Progress of the new development strategy with the main shareholder2024
- Launch and adoption of the VCAST product2025
- Incentive programme with subscription warrants, annual tranches2025 – 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Medicalgorithmics group, headquartered in Warsaw, operates in advanced telemedicine technologies and offers cardiac diagnostic solutions, especially for ECG signal analysis 1. The group's activity includes ECG monitoring services, IT services, research and development, and production of electromedical equipment 1. According to the 2023 annual report, a significant share of revenue comes from diagnostic services offered to US patients through medical partners 1.
Segments
ECG monitoring services (US)
The main revenue source is the ECG diagnostic service offered to US patients through the group's medical partners, which represented about 41% of consolidated revenue in 2023 1.
ECG analysis products and technologies
The group develops and commercializes technologies such as PocketECG and DRAI for ECG analysis, as well as VCAST for non-invasive diagnosis of the circulatory system 1.
Production and development
Activity includes research and development and production of electromedical equipment, including through the Gdańsk production facility referenced in the group's lease arrangements 1.
Market context
The company operates in the digital cardiac diagnostics market, where reimbursement by private and public insurers and physicians' preferences on the type of tests matter. Because of the concentration on the US market, reimbursement conditions there directly influence revenue. The source does not provide data on the total size of the market.
The number of key payers is limited while patients are spread across many medical facilities, so decisions by a key insurer can have a significant effect on the group 1.
Trends
- Consolidation among private insurersheadwind
Consolidation in the private insurance market and its bargaining power could lead to lower reimbursement rates and renegotiation of terms with medical partners 1.
- Physician preferences on testsmixed
Changes in the mix of prescribed tests, with a shift toward lower-reimbursed ones, could reduce the average rate and revenue, although the US market remains dynamic 1.
- Emergence of new diagnostic technologiesheadwind
Innovative technologies could replace solutions developed by the group, such as PocketECG, DRAI and VCAST 1.
- New strategy with the main shareholdertailwind
The group adopted in 2023 a new development strategy in cooperation with its main shareholder, which may support growth if the objectives are achieved 1.
Competitive position
The provided source does not explicitly identify the group's competitors. The competitive environment follows from the fact that ECG analysis and non-invasive diagnostic solutions could be replaced by new technologies entering the market 1.
The group depends on its own ability to adapt to changing market conditions; if it does not succeed, its competitive position could weaken 1.
- Providers of new cardiac diagnostic technologies
The source generally mentions the emergence of revolutionary technologies that could replace the group's solutions, without naming competitors.
- Medical partners and ECG service providers in the US
Partners offering different types of tests based on the PocketECG system; no direct competitors are identified.
- Private and public insurers
Not competitors, but key payers whose reimbursement decisions directly affect the group.
- Alternative cardiac monitoring systems
The source does not list specific competing products; the development of technological alternatives remains a stated risk.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
- Annual report 202216 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Medicalgorithmics S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.