olivLaw · European equity research
NCC Group plc NCC.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B01QGK86 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
NCC Group is a UK-based cyber security services provider with Managed Services, consultancy and Escode operations. In the fiscal year ended 30 September 2025 Cyber Security revenue declined, but gross margin rose and the company reduced its debt and prepared the sale of Escode.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, NCC Group plc (NCC.L) stock was 1.64 GBP (−0.85% on the day), with market capitalisation 502.3 m GBP, dividend yield 2.89%, beta 0.36, 52-week range 1.14–1.74 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.46 – 1.77
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.57 · band width 19.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.48 / 1.37
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.06 / 0.06
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.8% | −0.6% | +13.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.7% | −4.2% | +18.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.2% | +4.3% | +14.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.7% | +7.5% | +10.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +9.5% | +9.9% | −0.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +49.5% | +49.8% | −0.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −35.0% | +42.8% | −77.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 335.1 m | 238.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -4.6 m | 17.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -1.4% | 7.2% |
| Free cash flow | 28.2 m | 28.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 12.5 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 3.3 m GBP
- Net debt
- -9.2 m GBP
- Equity
- 206.5 m GBP
- Total assets
- 343.3 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- 2.36x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 5.0%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 335.1 m | 238.9 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 203.1 m | 150.5 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 132.0 m | 88.4 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.9 m | -6.1 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 22.6 m | 14.0 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 24.5 m ≈ | 7.9 m ≈ | esef· 08 Jan 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 6.2 m | 4.9 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -4.3 m | -11.0 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | 300.0 k | -1.9 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | -4.6 m | 17.1 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.03 | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.05 | — | esef· 14 Jan 2025derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 34.1 m | 12.5 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | 40.9 m | 31.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Inventories | 800.0 k | — | esef· 14 Jan 2025verified |
| Current assets | 100.4 m | 268.1 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.5 m | 10.5 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 255.8 m | 46.3 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 110.9 m | 3.6 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Total assets | 501.4 m | 343.3 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 44.7 m | 43.1 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.8 m | 0 | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 81.9 m | 3.3 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 111.1 m | 113.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 223.2 m | 136.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | 278.2 m | 206.5 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 306.7 m | — | esef· 14 Jan 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 32.1 m | 33.5 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.9 m | 4.7 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 28.2 m ≈ | 28.8 m ≈ | esef· 08 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.3 m | 56.3 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -67.3 m | -90.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 14.5 m | 19.0 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 5.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 502.3 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality47
- Returns73
- Balance sheet70
- Valuation32
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -2.3% | 17 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.2% | 43 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 168.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -1.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -1.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 62.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.7% | 72 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 71 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 66.0% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality47/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns73/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NCC GROUP PLC (NCC.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 238.9 m GBP in 2025; net margin 7.2%; ROE 8.3%; net debt/EBITDA -1.2x.
The estimated value range is 0.46–0.57 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.51 GBP, the price of 1.64 GBP leaves a potential of -68.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -219.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 168.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -1.2x
- Current ratio: 2.4x
- FCF yield: 5.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 4.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 66.0%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -2.3%
- Interest coverage: -1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 62.4x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| NCC.LNcc Group PLC | 502.3 m | — | 8.3% | 7.2% | unavailable | +10% / +35% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NCC.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NCC Group is a UK-based cyber security services provider with Managed Services, consultancy and Escode operations. In the fiscal year ended 30 September 2025 Cyber Security revenue declined, but gross margin rose and the company reduced its debt and prepared the sale of Escode 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A consolidated Managed Services portfolio with a growing share and better margins than consultancy.
- A stronger financial position after the Fox Crypto sale and the refinancing of the credit facility.
- The Escode division showed steady revenue growth and high gross margins.
Weaknesses
- Cyber Security revenue fell in fiscal 2025, particularly in North America.
- Reorganisation and strategic review costs had a significant impact on results.
- Dependence on consultancy markets, where demand recovered more slowly than expected.
Opportunities
- Growth in Managed Services could support recurring revenue and margins over the medium term.
- The demand recovery in the UK and APAC seen in the second half could continue.
- Better team utilisation and the Manila operations could further improve margins.
Threats
- Supply chain threats and complex cyber attacks could raise demand but also pressure clients.
- Exchange rate movements could negatively affect costs and revenue reported in sterling.
- Competition in the security services market could pressure prices and margins.
Risks
- Decline in North American revenuehigh
If demand in the regional consultancy market does not improve, Cyber Security revenue could remain under pressure.
- Execution of the Escode salemedium
The Escode sale is considered highly probable, but a failure or delay could affect the group's financial plans.
- Restructuring costsmedium
Reorganisation and strategic review costs have been significant and could continue in future periods.
- Currency risksmedium
Exchange rate differences affected reported results, and future movements could have a similar effect.
- Climate and reputation riskslow
Clients could shift preferences toward more sustainable products, and supply chain disruptions could affect operations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the growth in Managed Services and better margins persist, the company could achieve more stable profitability.
- The return of revenue in the second half in the UK and APAC could show that the client base is resilient.
- A cleaner financial structure after the Fox Crypto sale could provide flexibility for future investment.
What would break the thesis
- If demand in North America does not recover, revenue could keep falling and hold back group results.
- Restructuring costs and strategic reviews could reduce profitability in the coming period.
- If the Escode sale does not complete on the expected timetable, the group's simplification plan could be delayed.
What to watch
- Completion of the Escode sale and its effect on the financial positionnext 10-K
- Development of Cyber Security revenue in North America2026
- Continued growth of Managed Services and gross margin2026
- Level of reorganisation and strategic costs in fiscal 20262026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NCC Group plc is a cyber security services group active mainly in the UK, North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Its main activity, Cyber Security, includes Managed Services and consultancy and testing (C&I), while Escode, a source code escrow division, is reported as a discontinued operation. In fiscal 2025 Cyber Security revenue was £238.9m and total revenue including Escode was £305.4m 1.
The company changed its financial year end to 30 September, so fiscal 2025 is compared with a 16 month period ended September 2024. For comparability the report also presents 12 month pro forma figures 1.
In 2025 NCC completed the sale of Fox Crypto, recording an £11.4m gain, and refinanced its revolving credit facility in April 2025. The company also started the process of selling Escode, which is now classified as held for sale 1.
Segments
Cyber Security
The main segment, with revenue of £238.9m in fiscal 2025, fell 4.0% at constant currency excluding non-core disposals. However, revenue in the second half grew 3.0% against the first half, and the share of Managed Services increased 1.
Escode
Escode, the source code escrow division, generated revenue of £66.5m and grew 2.2% at constant currency. It is presented as a discontinued operation, and its sale was considered highly probable at 30 September 2025 1.
Market context
Managed Services grew 2.8% at constant currency, led by the European business, while UK C&I grew 16.6% at constant currency. These trends point to demand shifting toward recurring, higher-margin services 1.
Trends
- Slower demand in North Americaheadwind
TAS revenue in North America declined and the recovery in demand was slower than expected. If this persists, pressure on regional revenue could continue 1.
- Shift toward Managed Servicestailwind
The higher-margin Managed Services share of the service mix increased, supporting gross margin. Continuing this shift could support profitability 1.
- Utilisation and operational efficiencytailwind
Better team utilisation, including the Manila team, and efficiency projects raised gross margin. Future results could depend on keeping this utilisation up 1.
- Staff costs and restructuring chargesmixed
Administrative expenses fell mainly because of lower payroll costs after certain back-office functions moved to Manila, while exchange rates had a negative effect. Reorganisation and strategic review costs remained significant 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly name the company's competitors, so no comparative positions can be drawn from the supplied sources. The market for cyber security services is described as facing increasingly complex threats, including in supply chains 1.
The company differentiates itself through Managed Services, global operations (including Manila) and the Escode division, whose margin profile is much higher. Specific competitors are not named in the given source, so market data remains limited 1.
- Not named in source
The supplied annual report does not name direct competitors, so no tickers can be assigned from this source.
- Managed security service providers
This category is relevant to the Managed Services segment, but the source does not identify specific firms.
- Cyber security consultancy firms
Competition in the C&I segment is present, but the source names no companies and tickers cannot be verified.
- Source code escrow providers
Relevant to Escode, for which the source identifies neither competitors nor tickers.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202508 Jan 2026
- Annual report 202414 Jan 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 (ESEF) · SEC / NCC Group plc · 30 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.