olivLaw · European equity research
Nelly Group AB (publ) NELLY.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0015245535 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Nelly Group is a fashion and products retailer for young women, building a sustainability strategy centred on cutting emissions across its supply chain. Total emissions in 2024 were 15,634 t CO2e, while the company has committed within STICA to a reduction of 50 % versus 2020 by 2030, which shows the direction its climate reporting is taking.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Nelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST) stock was 33.60 SEK (−2.61% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.0 bn SEK, P/E 6.0 on diluted EPS of 5.62 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.47%, beta 0.48, 52-week range 29.38–134.00 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.20 – 39.02
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.54 · band width 35.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 33.47 / 47.69
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.62 / 0.56
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.9% | −0.6% | +12.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.3% | −4.2% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.6% | +4.3% | −12.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −69.1% | +7.5% | −76.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −62.5% | +9.9% | −72.4 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +169.9% | +49.8% | +120.0 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +40.1% | +42.8% | −2.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 10.4, median 14.9, max 19.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −18.3% | +3.2% | +15.5% |
| Net income | -71.7 m | -1.5 m | 83.4 m | 168.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +102.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.06 | 2.78 | 5.62 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +102.2% |
| net % | -5.5% | -0.1% | 7.6% | 13.3% |
| Free cash flow | -65.5 m | 51.1 m | 153.4 m | 111.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 253.8 m SEK
- Financial debt
- unavailable SEK
- Net debt
- unavailable SEK
- Equity
- 406.4 m SEK
- Total assets
- 989.7 m SEK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.54x
- ROE
- 52.4%
- ROA
- 17.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 732.7 m | 552.9 m | 512.9 m | 577.6 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 566.2 m | 507.9 m | 581.4 m | 686.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | -56.1 m | 10.9 m | 93.1 m | 166.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 15.9 m | 17.5 m | 17.8 m | 15.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -71.6 m | -2.3 m | 82.3 m | 154.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 100.0 k | -800.0 k | -1.1 m | -14.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -71.7 m | -1.5 m | 83.4 m | 168.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -0.06 | 2.78 | 5.62 | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.00 | 0.83 | — | esef· 08 May 2025derived |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 66.8 m | 121.1 m | 196.9 m | 253.8 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 225.6 m | 152.3 m | 172.6 m | 188.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 397.5 m | 335.6 m | 428.3 m | 489.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 296.2 m | 283.4 m | 251.0 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 39.7 m | 39.7 m | 39.7 m | 39.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 837.2 m | 799.8 m | 898.5 m | 989.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 90.3 m | 85.4 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 471.0 m | 438.0 m | 366.9 m | 318.7 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 703.6 m | 621.3 m | 661.3 m | 583.2 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 133.6 m | 178.6 m | 237.1 m | 406.4 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 25.0 m | 30.0 m | 30.0 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -65.0 m | 59.3 m | 154.6 m | 123.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 500.0 k | 8.2 m | 1.2 m | 11.5 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -65.5 m ≈ | 51.1 m ≈ | 153.4 m ≈ | 111.6 m ≈ | esef· 28 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.1 m | -22.9 m | -22.4 m | -32.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -25.0 m | 17.8 m | -56.4 m | -34.1 m | esef· 28 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 0 | 24.9 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.0 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet85
- Returns61
- Quality70
- Growth0
- Valuation100
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.3% | 89 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 66.2% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.5% | 35 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 22.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns61/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Nelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn SEK in 2025; YoY growth 15.5%; net margin 13.3%; ROE 52.4%.
The estimated value range is 87.22–189.88 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 119.56 SEK, the price of 33.60 SEK leaves a potential of 255.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 71.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 13.3%
- Interest coverage: 10.7x
- P/E (TTM): 6.0x
- FCF yield: 11.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 22.3%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NELLY.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 18.78 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 33.29 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 50.27 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 16.30 Total return -46% · Per year -19% | 32.68 Total return 5% · Per year 1% | 54.46 Total return 71% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 14.14 Total return -50% · Per year -13% | 32.09 Total return 8% · Per year 1% | 59.00 Total return 92% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 8.17
- Net margin± 5.72
- Annual revenue growth± 4.95
- Annual dilution± 0.48
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nelly Group is a fashion and products retailer for young women, building a sustainability strategy centred on cutting emissions across its supply chain. Total emissions in 2024 were 15,634 t CO2e, while the company has committed within STICA to a reduction of 50 % versus 2020 by 2030, which shows the direction its climate reporting is taking.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a clear brand identity aimed at young women and a logistics network close to its head office 1.
- Nelly is a member of several textile sustainability initiatives, which gives it support and visibility 1.
- Emissions reporting is detailed by scope and shows a decline against the base year, giving a clear basis for comparison 1.
Weaknesses
- The company owns no factories, which makes it dependent on suppliers for compliance with labour and environmental standards 1.
- Supply chain emissions, especially those linked to materials, dominate the company's climate footprint 1.
- The rise in emissions compared with the prior year shows that reductions are not linear and depend on external factors 1.
Opportunities
- A shift to renewable energy at suppliers could materially reduce the climate footprint of the products 1.
- Narrowing the range and deepening orders could bring savings and better logistics efficiency 1.
- Developing a circular business model through partnerships with resale platforms is an area the company is exploring 1.
Threats
Risks
- Human rights violations in the supply chainhigh
The company owns no factories, and suppliers could violate rights such as forced labour or child labour, with effects on reputation 1.
- Climate transition and customer demandsmedium
Without a clear emissions reduction plan, the company could become less attractive to customers and investors 1.
- Chemical compliancemedium
Requirements on chemicals are tightening, and non-compliance by some suppliers could lead to product safety problems 1.
- Disruptions to production and transportmedium
Unforeseen events such as pandemics or transport strikes could affect production and deliveries, since products are made in other countries 1.
- Data security and reputationlow
A cyber attack or data leak could reduce customer confidence in the company's ability to protect personal information 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If suppliers adopt renewable energy and emissions reductions continue, the company could strengthen the sustainable brand position it is pursuing 1.
- Concentrating the range and deepening orders could bring savings and better logistics efficiency 1.
- A strong base of young customers, combined with recognised sustainability initiatives, could support long-term growth 1.
What would break the thesis
- If supply chain emissions rise or reductions are delayed, the company could miss the targets it has announced for 2025 and 2030 1.
- Dependence on external suppliers could expose the company to scandals over human rights or labour standards 1.
- Regulatory changes and tougher product requirements could raise compliance costs 1.
What to watch
- Development of total emissions against the 2020 base year2025
- Progress on the shift of suppliers in Turkey and China to renewable energy2025
- Preparation for CSRD reporting2025
- Results from supplier audits carried out through Amfori and Sedexnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nelly Group AB (publ) describes its business in the 2024 annual report through a sustainability lens, focusing on human rights, environmental protection and business conduct 1. The company targets young women and aims to inspire confidence and wellbeing through its collections 1. Nelly owns no factories, and its products are made by suppliers in several countries, which makes supplier relationships central to the business model 1.
Sales take place through online commerce as well as the company's own warehouse and logistics operation, located close to the head office 1. The company has reduced the number of articles in its range to order more of each product, which aims at logistics efficiency and less waste 1.
On sustainability, Nelly reports its emissions under the GHG protocol and is a member of several textile industry initiatives, among them STICA, Amfori BSCI and Better Cotton 1. Turkey and China are the main markets for its own brands, where the company works with suppliers on the shift to renewable energy 1.
Segments
Own brands
Own brands are produced mainly by suppliers in Turkey and China, which are the main markets for these products, and Nelly works with them on the transition to renewable energy 1.
Online commerce and logistics
Online sales involve returns and extra packaging, and the company aims to reduce returns and transport impact through clearer product descriptions and a more focused range 1.
Market context
The annual report describes a sector where climate, chemical and labour standards are tightening, and consumers and investors increasingly demand transparency on environmental impact 1. The company operates in several markets and relies on a geographically spread supply chain, which exposes it both to opportunities and to risks specific to that setup 1.
Regulatory changes at European level, including the move to CSRD reporting, could change how the company presents and measures its emissions in the coming years 1.
Trends
- Pressure for climate transparencymixed
Investors and customers increasingly ask for clear emissions reporting, and a lack of visible reduction plans could make the company less attractive 1.
- More sustainable textile productsmixed
Competitors increasingly launch products with sustainable materials and certifications, which could put pressure on the Nelly range if more sustainable alternatives remain limited 1.
- Stricter chemical rulesheadwind
Requirements on chemicals keep tightening, and the risk that some suppliers fail to comply could create compliance problems 1.
- Shift to renewable energy in the supply chaintailwind
Solar panel installations at suppliers in Turkey and China could reduce production emissions if the practice spreads 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not give a detailed competitive analysis, but notes that other industry players increasingly offer products with sustainable materials and certifications 1. Nelly emphasises a more focused range and suppliers with verified standards 1.
The company differentiates itself through its community of young customers and collections oriented towards self-confidence, rather than through a price position assessed against peers 1.
- Other online fashion retailers
Competitors in online fashion, referred to in the source as players offering products with higher sustainability.
- Textile brands with certified materials
Competitors promoting more sustainable materials, a trend the report identifies as a risk for Nelly.
- Textile suppliers and manufacturers in Turkey and China
Not direct competitors, but they shape the company's costs and emissions through the supply chain.
- Scandinavian retailers with joint sustainability initiatives
Companies in the same initiatives as Nelly, such as STICA, so they compete for public perception as well.
News & filings
In the press
- Nelly Decker: Communications director, House Judiciary Committee DemocratsThe Hill · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nelly Korda says U.S. needs mental toughness to win Solheim Cup on European soilThe Japan Times · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nelly Korda maintains competitive mindset while pursuing rare heightsThe Japan Times · 26 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202528 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202323 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Nelly Group AB (publ) · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.