olivLaw · European equity research
Norske Skog ASA NSKOG.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0010861115 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
Norske Skog is a European producer of publication and packaging paper, shifting more of its activity from newsprint toward recycled containerboard. The company reported an operating income of NOK 10.5 billion for 2025, and its outlook depends on how quickly the new Golbey line reaches full utilisation.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Norske Skog ASA (NSKOG.OL) stock was 35.90 NOK (−1.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.0 bn NOK, P/E 7.5 on diluted EPS of 4.76 NOK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.74, 52-week range 14.22–54.20 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 32.30 – 46.41
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 35.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 44.52 / 39.21
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.46 / -2.43
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.4% | −0.6% | −10.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.1% | −4.2% | −12.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −21.2% | +4.3% | −25.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +111.7% | +7.5% | +104.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +147.6% | +9.9% | +137.7 pp | −4.7% |
| 3 years | −18.1% | +49.8% | −68.0 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | +3.0% | +42.8% | −39.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 3.6, median 5.4, max 7.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.9 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −6.7% | +2.3% |
| Net income | 481.0 m | -982.0 m | 404.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −304.2% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 5.67 | -11.57 | 4.76 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −304.1% | unavailable |
| net % | 4.9% | -10.6% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.1 bn NOK
- Financial debt
- unavailable NOK
- Net debt
- unavailable NOK
- Equity
- 5.8 bn NOK
- Total assets
- 14.7 bn NOK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.14x
- ROE
- 7.2%
- ROA
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (NOK)
Margins
Income statement · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.9 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 934.0 m | -60.0 m | 563.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 297.0 m | 351.0 m | 333.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 645.0 m | -566.0 m | 354.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 110.0 m | 94.0 m | -88.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 481.0 m | -982.0 m | 404.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.67 | -11.57 | 4.76 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.67 | 0.00 | — | esef· 08 May 2025derived |
Balance sheet · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 8.6 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 12.0 m | 11.0 m | 17.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 14.8 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 8.6 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 84.8 m | 84.9 m | 84.9 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.9 bn | -15.0 m | 227.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -2.7 bn | -1.2 bn | -328.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 549.0 m | -105.0 m | 27.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 57.0 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 415.0 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.0 bn NOK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.3% | 58 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 3 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 28 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.5x | 80 (vs peers) | 31% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet13/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial58/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial80/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NORSKE SKOG ASA (NSKOG.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.4 bn NOK in 2025; YoY growth 2.3%; net margin 4.3%; ROE 7.2%.
The estimated value range is 43.59–150.38 NOK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 94.05 NOK, the price of 35.90 NOK leaves a potential of 162.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 61.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 7.5x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 1.7x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 79.8 bn | 20.3 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +36% / +59% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.5 bn | 19.8 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +8% / +69% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.2 bn | 39.3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +10% / +73% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.5 bn | 21.4 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +11% / +36% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.6 bn | 37.1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −7% / +10% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.6 bn | 25.1 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −18% / −9% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.8 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +17% / +44% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +39% / +31% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.8 bn | 14.3 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +40% / +238% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.7 bn | 31.2 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +152% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.0 bn | 14.2 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −19% / −16% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 4.0 bn | 61.9 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −5% / +29% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.6 bn | 10.7 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −13% / +20% |
| NSKOG.OLNorske Skog Asa | 3.0 bn | 7.5 | 7.2% | 4.3% | +2.3% | +112% / −11% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.2 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −18% / −11% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.6 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +61% / +15% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.5 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −53% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 108.9 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −8% / −48% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 884.6 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −33% / −66% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 553.2 m | 36.1 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −7% / +41% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 234.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 73.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.1 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −82% / −97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NSKOG.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (NOK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 20.75 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 36.72 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 55.37 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 19.26 Total return -46% · Per year -19% | 38.43 Total return 7% · Per year 2% | 63.75 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 17.87 Total return -50% · Per year -13% | 40.22 Total return 12% · Per year 2% | 73.39 Total return 104% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 9.61
- Net margin± 6.73
- Annual revenue growth± 5.64
- Annual dilution± 0.57
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Norske Skog is a European producer of publication and packaging paper, shifting more of its activity from newsprint toward recycled containerboard. The company reported an operating income of NOK 10.5 billion for 2025, and its outlook depends on how quickly the new Golbey line reaches full utilisation.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds an industrial position across several European mills and a diversified portfolio of newsprint, magazine paper and recycled containerboard.
- Operating income rose in 2025 and operating earnings improved, supported by higher volumes and derivative effects.
- A clear strategy of vertical integration and development of renewable packaging reduces dependence on the declining publication paper market.
Weaknesses
- The publication paper segment faces declining volumes and average selling prices under pressure.
- The packaging segment remained loss-making at operating level, and start-up costs of the new line weighed on efficiency.
- Net interest-bearing debt increased in 2025, which limits financial flexibility given the still modest profit.
Opportunities
- If the Golbey line reaches full utilisation as planned, packaging revenue could grow significantly.
- Capacity closures across the industry could rebalance the publication paper market and support prices.
- Development of bio-based products and alternative fibre use, currently at pilot stage, could open new revenue sources.
Threats
- Structural decline in demand for publication paper could keep reducing volumes over the long term.
- Volatility in energy, wood and recycled fibre prices could compress margins in both segments.
- Currency exposure of NOK against EUR, USD and GBP could create financial risk if exchange rates move significantly.
Risks
- Declining demand for publication paperhigh
If demand keeps falling and capacity is not withdrawn, prices and profitability could come under further pressure.
- Volatile input costsmedium
Energy, wood, recycled fibre and chemicals are volatile, and medium and long-term contracts do not fully cover the exposure.
- Currency riskmedium
Revenues and costs are partly hedged naturally, but significant movements of NOK against GBP, USD and EUR could affect financial results.
- Execution of the containerboard projectmedium
If the Golbey line does not reach full utilisation on schedule, the economics of the packaging project could be affected.
- Debt and liquiditymedium
Net debt has increased, and if cash generation weakens, financial flexibility could become more limited.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If renewable packaging grows as planned, the segment could become a major source of revenue and reduce dependence on publication paper.
- If capacity closures continue, the publication paper market could become more balanced and prices could stabilise.
- Improving operating results and cash flows could support a gradual reduction of debt.
What would break the thesis
- If publication paper demand falls faster than capacity is withdrawn, results in the core segment could keep deteriorating.
- If the packaging segment does not reach planned efficiency, operating losses could persist and slow the return to profitability.
- Rising net debt and currency exposure could limit the company's ability to invest and withstand cost shocks.
What to watch
- Reaching full utilisation of the Golbey recycled containerboard linefirst half of 2027
- Development of publication paper volumes and prices for newsprint and magazine paper2026
- Development of net interest-bearing debt and operating cash generationnext 10-K
- Development of energy and recycled fibre prices, as guided by the company2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Norske Skog is an important producer of publication paper and packaging paper. The company has publication paper production capacity of 1.2 million tonnes across four European sites, comprising newsprint and magazine paper. According to the annual report, the strategy combines improving publication paper cash flows with developing an independent European producer of renewable packaging paper and integrating vertically across the value chain.
The packaging activity is based on recycled fibre and recycled containerboard produced at Bruck and Golbey. Once fully ramped up, the two mills would jointly have 0.8 million tonnes of recycled containerboard capacity. The company notes that green energy from the new facilities at Bruck and Golbey is essential for long-term competitiveness.
In 2025 operating income was influenced by higher volumes and a mix effect from a larger share of recycled containerboard, which reduced average selling prices. Profit for the year was NOK 442 million, compared with a loss in the prior year, and net interest-bearing debt rose to NOK 4.3 billion.
Segments
Publication paper
Operating income for the segment was NOK 8.9 billion, down from the previous year due to lower volumes and lower publication paper prices. Operating earnings rose to NOK 1.1 billion, mainly because of the positive impact of derivatives and other fair value adjustments.
Packaging paper
The packaging segment had total operating income of NOK 1.2 billion, rising with the start of production at Golbey PM1 and higher deliveries from Bruck PM3. Operating earnings remained negative at NOK -525 million, although Bruck improved compared with the prior year.
Market context
European demand for publication paper continues to decline structurally by about 5-10% per year, and in 2025 standard newsprint demand fell 8% from the previous year. Capacity closures have helped rebalance supply for certain grades, but others still run at low utilisation. In the Western European recycled containerboard market, consumption was about 20 million tonnes in 2025, with both demand and capacity rising while utilisation fell slightly and remains below historical averages.
Trends
- Structural decline of publication paperheadwind
Continued falling demand for newsprint and magazine paper reduces core volumes. The company indicates the market could only rebalance through permanent capacity closures or conversions to other grades.
- Growing demand for recycled containerboardtailwind
European demand for recycled containerboard increased in 2025, and Norske Skog is expanding in this segment, which could reduce its dependence on publication paper.
- Pressure from raw material and energy pricesmixed
Raw material costs remained volatile and energy stayed at high levels compared with historical averages. If energy and wood prices remain elevated, margins in both segments could be affected.
- New packaging capacity coming onlinemixed
The start of Golbey PM1 and higher deliveries from Bruck PM3 expand packaging revenue, but start-up costs and lower efficiency after start-up weighed on the segment result.
Competitive position
Norske Skog competes in the European publication paper and recycled containerboard markets with other European paper producers. Competitive pressure is high in publication paper, where volumes are declining, while in packaging new capacity enters a market with low utilisation.
The company's advantage lies in its industrial footprint in Europe and its product diversification across newsprint, magazine paper and recycled containerboard. Access to affordable green energy and recycled fibre are decisive for long-term competitiveness.
- European publication paper producers
Direct competitors in the European newsprint and magazine paper market, where demand is declining structurally.
- European recycled containerboard producers
Competitors in the packaging segment, in a market with new capacity and low utilisation.
- European packaging paper producers
Competition on price and cost efficiency in the renewable packaging segment.
- Global packaging paper suppliers
Larger-scale companies that can influence prices and capacity in the European market.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Norske Skog ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.