olivLaw · European equity research
NatWest Group plc NWG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BM8PJY71 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
NatWest Group plc is a UK banking group offering retail, commercial and institutional, and wealth management services. It reported a CET1 ratio of 14.0% at 31 December 2025 and returned to private ownership after the UK Government exited its shareholding, giving it greater strategic flexibility.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, NatWest Group plc (NWG.L) stock was 5.93 GBP (−2.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 50.9 bn GBP, P/E 8.8 on diluted EPS of 0.67 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.67%, beta 1.08, 52-week range 5.20–7.23 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.78 – 6.91
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 17.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.65 / 6.34
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.20 / -0.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.3% | −0.6% | −10.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −16.7% | −4.2% | −12.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +3.7% | +4.3% | −0.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.0% | +7.5% | −16.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +9.9% | −9.1 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +212.5% | +49.8% | +162.7 pp | +24.8% |
| 5 years | +154.1% | +42.8% | +111.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 75 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 4.6, median 7.7, max 9.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 3.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +28.8% | +3.9% | +21.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +42.0% | +11.3% | +26.9% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -44.2 bn | -18.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 6.4 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 95.4 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 42.6 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 714.6 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 14.2%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depreciation & amortisation | 833.0 m | 934.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.7 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.67 | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.28 | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 158.4 bn | 118.8 bn | 104.8 bn | 95.4 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 692.7 bn | 708.0 bn | 714.6 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 655.5 bn | 668.6 bn | 671.9 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 36.5 bn | 37.2 bn | 39.4 bn | 42.6 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 10.6 bn | 9.7 bn | 9.0 bn | 8.6 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -43.6 bn | -17.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 639.0 m | 811.0 m | 464.0 m | 665.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -44.2 bn ≈ | -18.2 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 6.4 bn ≈ | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 19.1 bn | -14.7 bn | -12.7 bn | -13.8 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -10.7 bn | -6.3 bn | -1.9 bn | -3.5 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 579.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 50.9 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 109.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 26.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.8x | 84 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.8% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 37.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns90/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NATWEST GROUP PLC (NWG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 14.2%.
The estimated value range is 5.35–8.90 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.67 GBP, the price of 5.93 GBP leaves a potential of 12.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 11.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 109.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 26.1%
- P/E (TTM): 8.8x
- FCF yield: 12.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 37.1%
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NWG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NatWest Group plc is a UK banking group offering retail, commercial and institutional, and wealth management services. It reported a CET1 ratio of 14.0% at 31 December 2025 1 and returned to private ownership after the UK Government exited its shareholding 1, giving it greater strategic flexibility.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- The target to halve the climate impact of financing has become harder to reach, and reductions are not expected to be linear 1.
- The approach to nature-related risk is less mature than the approach to climate risk 1.
- Reliance on third-party providers creates operational vulnerabilities that need constant monitoring 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Artificial intelligence riskmedium
AI developments could increase model risk and fraud, and a failure of the innovation strategy could benefit competitors 1.
- Cyber riskhigh
A failure of cybersecurity policies could produce significant losses, business disruption and reputational damage 1.
- Economic deteriorationhigh
If economic activity weakens or confidence in sovereign debt falls, the impact on financial prospects could be significant 1.
- Changing regulationmedium
Basel 3.1 standards and financial crime requirements could affect risk-weighted assets and compliance costs 1.
- Physical climate riskmedium
More frequent or severe climate events could cause credit, operational and market losses 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group turns its strong capital and liquidity into sustained revenue growth, its position could become more attractive to investors 1.
- The climate transition finance target could create new revenues in corporate and energy infrastructure lending 1.
- The return to private ownership could give the group more flexibility for acquisitions and partnerships 1.
What would break the thesis
- If competition from technology firms and challengers intensifies, pressure on revenues and margins could increase 1.
- Difficulty reaching the climate target could attract criticism and unplanned adjustment costs 1.
- A major cyber incident could damage customer trust and create unforeseen remediation costs 1.
What to watch
- Development of the CET1 ratio and capital distribution2026
- Progress toward the Return on Tangible Equity guidance2028
- Delivery of the £200 billion climate and transition finance target2030
- Impact of Basel 3.1 implementation on risk-weighted assetsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to its 2025 annual report, NatWest Group operates through segments such as Retail Banking, Private Banking & Wealth Management and Commercial & Institutional, plus the Digital X function 1. The group emphasises digital platform stability, reporting that its most critical systems were available 99.99% of the time in 2025 1. It also aims to support customers' climate transition with a new target of £200 billion in climate and transition finance between 1 July 2025 and the end of 2030 1.
Tangible net asset value per share rose 21% to 381p as at 31 December 2025 1, and the group cites a 2028 Return on Tangible Equity guidance 1. Its liquidity portfolio stood at £238 billion 1.
The company describes managing risk through its Enterprise-Wide Risk Management Framework, which includes oversight of artificial intelligence and climate-related risks 1.
Segments
Retail Banking
The UK retail segment is named in the report as one of the areas most exposed to rising competition, where pressures could affect revenues and profitability 1.
Commercial & Institutional
The commercial and institutional segment is mentioned alongside Retail Banking as sensitive to intensifying competition and to technology and regulatory change 1.
Private Banking & Wealth Management
The wealth division appears in the report as part of the group's digital access and customer engagement efforts, without detailed performance figures in the available source 1.
Market context
The report describes a volatile economic and interest rate environment in which a deterioration in economic conditions, liquidity or confidence in sovereign debt could affect the group's financial outlook 1. Competition from challengers and large technology firms is viewed as a growing pressure on market share 1.
Regulatory activity remains intense, including implementation of the Basel 3.1 standards and management of financial crime, which may influence risk-weighted assets and internal models 1.
Trends
- Artificial intelligencemixed
The group is developing AI solutions for customer experience and risk management, but states that the success of its innovation strategy cannot be assured and that competitors could implement AI technologies more successfully 1.
- Revised climate targetsmixed
The bank withdrew its earlier 16 portfolio-level sector targets and adopted nine activity-based targets for 2030, a recalibration of its transition strategy 1. Progress is harder to achieve because emission reductions are unlikely to be linear 1.
- Digital currencies and tokenised assetsmixed
Developments in central bank digital currencies and stablecoins could lead to deposit outflows and higher funding costs, although the group already takes part in tokenised deposit pilots 1.
- Cyber threatsheadwind
Cyberattacks are growing in frequency and sophistication, and a failure of controls could lead to material losses and major service disruption 1.
Competitive position
The report names competition from incumbent banks, challengers and new entrants, as well as technology conglomerates with advantages in scale, technology and brand 1. The group responds with innovative propositions, partnerships and acquisitions 1.
The supplied sources do not name specific competitors, so the analysis is limited to the categories of competitors described by the group 1.
- UK incumbent banks
Established banks competing in retail and commercial banking, as described in the group's competition risk discussion 1.
- Challenger and digital banks
New entrants that could change customer behaviour and pricing dynamics in retail banking 1.
- Large technology companies
Conglomerates with advantages in scale, technology and brand recognition, explicitly cited as a competitive pressure 1.
- Market-based finance providers
Non-bank lenders whose exposure the group monitors as a systemic risk 1.
News & filings
In the press
- NatWest orders 13,000 staff back to their desks two days a weekThe Guardian World · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- NatWest Pulls Back From Dealing US and European Government BondsBloomberg Markets · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- NatWest (NWG) Looks to America for Growth as UK Banking Competition IntensifiesYahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- NatWest revives US expansion plans after UK ringfencing rule changes – reportYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- NatWest Names Roose Interim Head of Primary Capital MarketsBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 (ESEF) · SEC / NatWest Group plc · 31 Jan 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.