olivLaw · European equity research
NEXT plc NXT.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0032089863 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
NEXT plc is a British retailer of clothing, footwear and home products, selling through its own stores, its online platform, third-party brands and wholly-owned or part-owned brands. Profit before tax reached £1,158.2m in fiscal 2026, and guidance for fiscal 2027 points to £1,210m, so cost control and international growth matter now.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, NEXT plc (NXT.L) stock was 159.90 GBP (+2.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.7 bn GBP, P/E 21.5 on diluted EPS of 7.45 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.99%, beta 0.45, 52-week range 120.05–159.90 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 145.56 – 157.87
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 149.47 / 139.99
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.03 / 1.34
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.6% | −0.6% | +10.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.7% | −4.2% | +5.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +21.2% | +4.3% | +16.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.9% | +7.5% | +9.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.2% | +9.9% | +1.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +121.9% | +49.8% | +72.1 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +96.9% | +42.8% | +54.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 13.0, median 15.4, max 17.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.4% | +12.8% |
| Net income | 802.3 m | 736.1 m | 888.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −8.3% | +20.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.56 | 6.06 | 7.45 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −7.7% | +23.1% |
| net % | 14.6% | 12.0% | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow | 983.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 60.2 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 96.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- 35.8 m GBP
- Equity
- 1.8 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 4.9 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.05x
- Current ratio
- 1.76x
- ROE
- 50.3%
- ROA
- 18.2%
- FCF margin
- 15.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.9 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 987.9 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 87.5 m | 96.6 m | 97.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.0 bn | 987.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 215.3 m | 243.8 m | 294.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 802.3 m | 736.1 m | 888.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.56 | 6.06 | 7.45 | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.41 | 1.58 | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 124.3 m | 171.3 m | 60.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 769.0 m | 865.2 m | 949.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 687.5 m | 686.4 m | 667.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 991.8 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 58.7 m | 60.6 m | 96.0 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 29.5 m | 0 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 121.3 m | 119.7 m | 116.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 137.0 m | 129.3 m | 135.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 983.3 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -334.4 m | -181.2 m | -119.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -663.3 m | -939.6 m | -1.2 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 177.3 m | 360.2 m | 131.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 18.7 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 55.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 12.9% | 51 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 123.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 13.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 80 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.5x | 28 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.9% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.7% | 10 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial10/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation48/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEXT PLC (NXT.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-01-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.9 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth 12.8%; net margin 12.9%; ROE 50.3%.
The estimated value range is 100.85–143.71 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 120.99 GBP, the price of 159.90 GBP leaves a potential of -24.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -32.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 55.7%
- FCF conversion: 123.6%
- Interest coverage: 13.2x
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- FCF yield: 5.9%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 21.5x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| NXT.LNext PLC | 18.7 bn | 21.5 | 50.3% | 12.9% | +12.8% | +13% / +102% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NXT.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 104.42 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 183.93 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 276.11 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 118.96 Total return -23% · Per year -8% | 234.03 Total return 50% · Per year 15% | 383.17 Total return 144% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 135.52 Total return -10% · Per year -2% | 297.78 Total return 94% · Per year 14% | 531.73 Total return 242% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 58.51
- Net margin± 40.96
- Annual revenue growth± 31.14
- Annual dilution± 3.44
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NEXT plc is a British retailer of clothing, footwear and home products, selling through its own stores, its online platform, third-party brands and wholly-owned or part-owned brands. Profit before tax reached £1,158.2m in fiscal 2026 1, and guidance for fiscal 2027 points to £1,210m 1, so cost control and international growth matter now.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a solid profitability profile and strong operating cash flow, with a well-defined strategy for cost control and return on investment 1.
- Its portfolio of own brands and acquired brands offers diversification and growth options 1.
- The group runs a three-lines-of-defence risk governance model with clear responsibilities for each risk 1.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on the UK consumer season could make revenue sensitive to swings in domestic demand 1.
- Results are reported through alternative performance measures, and differences from statutory figures can make comparison harder 1.
- Stores that do not stay profitable may close when leases expire, limiting flexibility of the physical network 1.
Opportunities
- International growth, supported by better online functionality and more effective marketing, could add revenue 1.
- Controlling fixed costs with artificial intelligence could improve margins over the longer term 1.
- Returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or special dividends may reflect confidence in cash generation 1.
Risks
- Middle East conflicthigh
Regional instability could affect sales in the area and raise fuel and transport costs, with possible effects on prices and demand 1.
- Equal pay claimhigh
The company is appealing a tribunal decision in an equal pay case between store and warehouse staff; if the appeal fails, operating costs could rise 1.
- Recruiting warehouse staffmedium
Difficulty recruiting for warehouses, where work is seen as less attractive, could affect logistics operations 1.
- Pressure on demand and marginsmedium
Higher costs and prices could reduce demand and compress margins if disruption persists 1.
- Heavy capital spendinglow
Accelerating warehouse and software investment could raise capital expenditure and require careful execution to deliver the expected returns 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If full price sales growth holds and cost control supports margins, profit could keep rising from the fiscal 2026 level 1.
- Overseas development and better online functionality could open new revenue sources, reducing reliance on the UK market 1.
- Returning capital to shareholders and generating solid cash could sustain investor confidence in the period ahead 1.
What would break the thesis
- If instability in the Middle East lasts, costs and demand could be hit harder than the company currently expects 1.
- An adverse outcome in the equal pay case could raise costs and limit the opening of new stores 1.
- If the strong UK consumer season does not repeat, the company could struggle to match the exceptional performance of the prior year 1.
What to watch
- Update on sales trends after the first quarter and the impact of the conflict on costsQ1 2027
- Outcome of the appeal in the equal pay case2026
- Delivery of the pre-tax profit guidance and full price sales growth target2027
- Execution of the £500m share buybacks and capital returnsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NEXT sells clothing, footwear and home products through its stores, its online platform and third-party brands, and through brands it wholly or partly owns, including FatFace, Reiss, JoJo Maman Bèbè and Joules 1. The company pursues growth in a disciplined way: each project, from warehouses to marketing campaigns, is assessed on profitability and return on investment 1. The group reports headline profit and sales that include its share of partly owned subsidiaries, a convention explained in the annual report 1.
The core business remains the UK market, where sales were encouraging in the first eight weeks of fiscal 2027 1. The company keeps investing in warehouses, software, customer services and artificial intelligence to control fixed costs 1. Accelerating warehouse investment is described as consistent with the group's long-term rate of capital consumption 1.
Management trading cash flow differs from the statutory presentation: trading cash flow was £764m, while statutory net cash from operating activities was £1,234m, with the difference mainly from interest, lease payments and ESOT cash flows 1. Readers comparing the figures should take these presentation differences into account 1.
Segments
UK and overseas sales
UK activity grew strongly in fiscal 2025 and remains the group's base, while international activity is pursued through better online functionality and more effective marketing 1. Guidance for full price sales growth in fiscal 2027 is 4.5% 1.
Market context
The company's orientation is towards sales to discretionary consumers, especially in the UK, where the strong trading of the previous year sets a demanding base 1. Instability in the Middle East, which represents around 6% of total turnover, could limit growth in that region and affect costs and demand elsewhere in the business 1.
The market depends on transport costs, supplier prices and supply chain pressures; the company has accounted for £15m of extra costs over three months, offset by savings elsewhere 1. If these costs persist, the company could pass them on through higher prices to consumers 1.
Trends
- Full price sales growthtailwind
Guidance for full price sales growth was held at 4.5% for fiscal 2027 1. Sustained growth could support profit if demand holds.
- Middle East conflictheadwind
Regional instability may reduce sales and raise fuel and air freight costs, and its longer-term effects remain uncertain 1.
- Warehouse and software investmentmixed
Accelerating warehouse and software investment could support growth but implies higher capital spending 1.
- Artificial intelligence for cost controltailwind
The company notes that artificial intelligence could help control fixed costs, which could improve margins if the projects prove effective 1.
Competitive position
NEXT competes with other fashion and home retailers, both in stores and online, and its advantage rests on cost control, net margins and its brand portfolio 1. The sources do not explicitly name competitors, so direct comparisons cannot be confirmed from the available text 1.
Competition shows up mainly in pricing, product quality and the ability to attract warehouse staff, where wage pressure could affect competitiveness 1.
- UK fashion retailers
Direct competitors in the UK for clothing and footwear, with no specific detail given in the sources.
- Online fashion retailers
Competitors for e-commerce and international customers, mentioned in the context of the growth strategy.
- Home goods chains
Competitors in the home products category, not explicitly identified in the source.
- Third-party brands sold by NEXT
Suppliers whose products are sold on the platform and who can influence competition by category.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202621 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 (ESEF) · SEC / NEXT plc · 31 Jan 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.