olivLaw · European equity research
Orzeł Biały S.A. OBL.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLORZBL00013 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Orzeł Biały S.A. is a Polish lead producer whose revenue depends directly on LME lead quotations. In 2023 about 70% of sales were invoiced in euro, and the group averaged 279 employees, a compact structure exposed to price and currency risk.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Orzeł Biały S.A. (OBL.WA) stock was 40.60 PLN (−0.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 675.7 m PLN, P/E 6.3 on diluted EPS of 6.40 PLN over the last 12 months, beta 0.11, 52-week range 33.80–42.80 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 39.11 – 42.45
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.45 · band width 8.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 39.90 / 37.73
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.10 / 0.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.6% | −0.6% | +4.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.0% | −4.2% | +7.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.6% | +4.3% | +4.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +12.8% | +7.5% | +5.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +4.6% | +9.9% | −5.3 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | +16.0% | +49.8% | −33.8 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | +53.2% | +42.8% | +10.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 4.6, median 5.4, max 6.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 662.7 m | 885.9 m | 736.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +33.7% | −16.8% |
| Net income | 63.4 m | 100.4 m | 106.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +58.3% | +6.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.81 | 6.03 | 6.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +58.3% | +6.1% |
| net % | 9.6% | 11.3% | 14.5% |
| Free cash flow | -8.9 m | 92.2 m | 84.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 81.7 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 602.0 m PLN
- Total assets
- 699.4 m PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 9.53x
- ROE
- 19.6%
- ROA
- 16.4%
- FCF margin
- 11.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 662.7 m | 885.9 m | 736.9 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 549.8 m | 719.4 m | 579.1 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 112.9 m | 166.6 m | 157.8 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Operating income | 84.7 m | 137.0 m | 119.4 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 1.4 m | 3.6 m | 1.6 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 82.7 m | 128.8 m | 134.2 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Income tax | 19.3 m | 28.5 m | 27.7 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Net income | 63.4 m | 100.4 m | 106.5 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.81 | 6.03 | 6.40 | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 22.6 m | 113.1 m | 81.7 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Receivables | 174.6 m | 204.9 m | 174.5 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Inventories | 118.9 m | 119.3 m | 156.9 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Current assets | 325.7 m | 471.7 m | 575.1 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 115.2 m | 116.4 m | 112.3 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.5 m | 1.3 m | 1.1 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Total assets | 474.9 m | 600.3 m | 699.4 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 35.1 m | 44.4 m | 37.1 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 53.1 m | 82.5 m | 60.3 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 88.7 m | 115.5 m | 97.5 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Equity | 386.2 m | 484.8 m | 602.0 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 16.6 m | 16.6 m | 16.6 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -2.6 m | 101.3 m | 88.7 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Capex | 6.4 m | 9.0 m | 4.2 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | -8.9 m ≈ | 92.2 m ≈ | 84.5 m ≈ | esef· 24 Apr 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -16.3 m | -9.0 m | -117.7 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.7 m | -1.8 m | -2.5 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 675.7 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.5% | 82 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 79.3% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 76.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 9.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.3x | 79 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Orzeł Biały S.A. (OBL.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 736.9 m PLN in 2023; YoY growth -16.8%; net margin 14.5%; ROE 19.6%.
The estimated value range is 40.78–112.55 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 70.80 PLN, the price of 40.60 PLN leaves a potential of 74.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 42.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 14.5%
- FCF conversion: 79.3%
- Interest coverage: 76.4x
- Current ratio: 9.5x
- P/E (TTM): 6.3x
- FCF yield: 12.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| OBL.WAOrzeł Biały S.A. | 675.7 m | 6.3 | 19.6% | 14.5% | −16.8% | +13% / +17% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OBL.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 21.71 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 38.57 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 58.36 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 17.24 Total return -58% · Per year -25% | 34.81 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 58.36 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 13.69 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 31.42 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 58.36 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 8.70
- Net margin± 6.09
- Annual revenue growth± 5.50
- Annual dilution± 0.51
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Orzeł Biały S.A. is a Polish lead producer whose revenue depends directly on LME lead quotations. In 2023 about 70% of sales were invoiced in euro, and the group averaged 279 employees, a compact structure exposed to price and currency risk.
SWOT
Strengths
- A compact structure with a low debt to equity ratio in 2023 compared with the prior year.
- A formalised price hedging strategy using commodity swaps, applied for more than a decade.
- Long-standing customer relationships, on which the report bases a low credit risk assessment.
Weaknesses
- Full dependence on LME lead quotations for all revenue.
- A long inventory cycle that exposes the group to price moves between purchase and sale.
- Credit risk concentrated in a few key customers whose turnover exceeds the 10% of revenue threshold.
Opportunities
- If recycling and energy efficiency improve, costs could be reduced against rising gas prices.
- Logistics optimisation with partners to lower transport costs, which management is pursuing.
- A possible refinement of currency exposure by adjusting the mix between euro and zloty sales.
Threats
- Volatility of the lead price on the LME, which directly affects revenue and margins.
- Rising transport and gas costs, which management describes as hard to quantify.
- Fluctuations in the euro against the zloty, which affect the majority of revenue earned in euro.
Risks
- Lead price riskhigh
Revenue depends entirely on LME quotations, and a gap between purchase and sale can generate losses if the price falls. Swap hedging reduces but does not eliminate the exposure.
- Currency riskmedium
About 70% of sales are in euro while costs are in zloty. A weaker euro could reduce revenue expressed in zloty.
- Customer concentrationmedium
A few key customers account for a significant share of revenue, and losing one of them could affect sales.
- Energy and transport costsmedium
Gas price volatility and an expected rise in transport costs could compress margins, and management cannot yet estimate the scale of this effect.
- Supply disruption risklow
The report mentions possible breaks in international supply chains and departures of workers from the transport sector, which could slow operations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If lead quotations stay favourable and swap hedging works as it has in the past, margins could be supported by a funding structure with low debt.
- Long experience with customers and a credit risk policy could limit losses from unpaid invoices.
- If logistics optimisation succeeds, the rise in transport costs could be cushioned without affecting sales volume.
What would break the thesis
- All revenue depends on a single price indicator, and a decline in lead could reduce results quickly.
- Management cannot quantify the impact of higher energy and transport costs, which makes future margins hard to estimate.
- Sales concentrated in a few customers and a majority currency exposure could amplify market shocks.
What to watch
- Evolution of LME lead quotations and quarterly marginsQ1 2027
- Impact of gas and transport costs on operating results2027
- Debt level and funding policy in the next annual reportnext annual report
- Sales concentration on key customers and the associated credit risk2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Orzeł Biały group operates in lead production and lead products, with a core activity tied to recycling and processing the metal. According to the 2023 annual report, the group bases all of its sales on LME lead quotations 1. The parent and consolidated subsidiaries keep their books in zloty, which is also the group's functional currency 1.
The group holds relatively large inventories of raw materials, work in progress and finished goods, which gives it a long inventory cycle 1. To limit price risk it applies a hedging strategy based on commodity swaps, documented in 2006 and updated in 2016 1.
Management's 2023 annual report flags dependence on energy and transport costs: it cites gas price volatility and an expected rise in transport costs 1. These are described as factors that could affect short-term results 1.
Segments
Market context
The group's reference market is the global lead market, with prices set on the London Metal Exchange 1. The analysed source does not give a market share or total market size, so these cannot be assessed from the report. LME quotations and the exchange rate are the main factors that could influence margins.
Trends
- Lead price volatilitymixed
All of the group's revenue is tied to LME quotations, and the gap between buying raw material and selling the product can expose the group to adverse price moves 1. Hedging with swaps mitigates this risk but does not remove it 1.
- Rising gas and transport costsheadwind
Management anticipates a significant rise in transport costs, and gas prices are described as volatile and hard to forecast 1. If these costs stay high, operating margins could be compressed.
- Stable funding structuretailwind
The report shows a lower debt to equity ratio in 2023 compared with 2022, which could give flexibility against price shocks 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not name direct competitors and contains no comparative data on market shares or prices. Competition therefore cannot be assessed from this document, and the points below are limited to what can be inferred from the business structure.
- European lead producers
Competitors in the same lead market, not named in the source; their identity cannot be verified from the report.
- Lead recyclers
Operators competing for secondary raw materials, but not named in the analysed report.
- Imported metal suppliers
The source names no specific suppliers; it only mentions the risk of supply chain disruption.
- Other exporters to the euro area
Producers selling into the same currency area; the source does not name them.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202324 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202216 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Orzeł Biały S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.