olivLaw · European equity research
Ovzon AB (publ) OVZON.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0010948711 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Ovzon AB develops mobile satellite communication solutions combining its own satellite, the Ovzon 3, with third-party satellite capacity and portable terminals. The company targets defence, national security and public safety customers who need resilient communication where terrestrial networks are unavailable, and its own satellite has been in operation since its successful commissioning in 2024.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ovzon AB (publ) (OVZON.ST) stock was 37.02 SEK (−5.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.1 bn SEK, P/E 30.3 on diluted EPS of 1.22 SEK over the last 12 months, beta 0.86, 52-week range 30.75–69.40 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 30.24 – 41.02
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 30.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 36.63 / 47.70
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.84 / 0.39
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.5% | −0.6% | +10.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.1% | −4.2% | +1.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −33.0% | +4.3% | −37.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.2% | +7.5% | −20.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +9.7% | +9.9% | −0.2 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | +476.4% | +49.8% | +426.5 pp | +12.0% |
| 5 years | −9.2% | +42.8% | −52.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 35.0, median 35.0, max 35.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -60.0 m | -162.0 m | 137.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.09 | -1.45 | 1.22 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -662.0 m | -92.0 m | 299.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 171.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 243.0 m SEK
- Net debt
- 72.0 m SEK
- Equity
- 1.8 bn SEK
- Total assets
- 2.8 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.14x
- Current ratio
- 0.69x
- ROE
- 8.1%
- ROA
- 4.9%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -95.0 m | -82.0 m | 140.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 28.0 m | 82.0 m | 151.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -67.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 291.0 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.0 m | 86.0 m | 77.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -67.0 m | -161.0 m | 106.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -7.0 m | 1.0 m | -31.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -60.0 m | -162.0 m | 137.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.09 | -1.45 | 1.22 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 111.5 m | 112.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 247.0 m | 126.0 m | 171.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 355.0 m | 415.0 m | 540.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 84.0 m | 103.0 m | 97.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 640.0 m | 0 | 243.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 119.0 m | 1.1 bn | 779.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 55.0 m | 111.7 m | 111.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -14.0 m | 51.0 m | 337.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 648.0 m | 143.0 m | 38.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -662.0 m ≈ | -92.0 m ≈ | 299.0 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -668.0 m | -158.0 m | -49.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 651.0 m | -17.0 m | -243.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 43 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.1 bn SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality58
- Balance sheet31
- Valuation42
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 43/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.1% | 33 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 218.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 60 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 5 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 30.3x | 38 (vs peers) | 16% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 14.4x | 5 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.3% | 91 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality58/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation42/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Ovzon AB (publ) (OVZON.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 8.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 15.05–30.10 SEK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 19.60 SEK, the price of 37.02 SEK leaves a potential of -47.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -88.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 218.2%
- FCF yield: 7.3%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 1.8x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 14.4x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OVZON.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ovzon AB develops mobile satellite communication solutions combining its own satellite, the Ovzon 3, with third-party satellite capacity and portable terminals. The company targets defence, national security and public safety customers who need resilient communication where terrestrial networks are unavailable, and its own satellite has been in operation since its successful commissioning in 2024 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company controls its own satellite with steerable antennas and an on-board processor, giving it an integrated platform compared with competitors 1.
- Mobile terminals are compact and can be operated by a single user, which supports adoption in field missions 1.
- The portfolio combines own and third-party capacity, which extends coverage without relying on a single supplier 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a single proprietary satellite creates operational risk if it suffers failure or degradation 1.
- Part of the capacity comes from third parties, which limits control over costs and availability 1.
- The mass-market segment brings price pressure, and margins could be affected in those markets 1.
Opportunities
- Demand from defence and national security could grow if governments expand purchases of resilient communications 1.
- The T8 terminal launch for unmanned platforms could open new markets in surveillance and monitoring 1.
- If the company expands its satellite fleet, it could increase coverage and total system capacity 1.
Threats
Risks
- Dependence on a single satellitehigh
The operation of Ovzon 3 is essential to the company's portfolio, and a failure or degradation could affect customer services 1.
- Competition from LEO constellationsmedium
Low-orbit connectivity providers may offer similar services, which could affect prices and market share 1.
- Price pressure in the mass marketmedium
Mass-market segments are price-sensitive, and the company could be forced to lower tariffs to stay competitive 1.
- Delays in new terminal developmentmedium
The T8 terminal pilot launch is planned for 2026, and delays could postpone access to new customer segments 1.
- Geopolitical and security risklow
Activities in conflict zones and cyber threats could disrupt the network and contracts with defence customers 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for resilient communications in defence and public safety keeps growing, the company's integrated portfolio could become a durable advantage 1.
- The Ovzon 3 satellite, in operation since 2024, provides a proprietary platform that can be extended, supporting long-term growth 1.
- The combination of compact terminals and third-party capacity could allow global coverage without proportional infrastructure investment 1.
What would break the thesis
- Competition from LEO constellations and traditional operators could reduce the company's differentiation and pressure on prices 1.
- Dependence on a single proprietary satellite could expose the company to operational risks affecting all services 1.
- If the mass-market segment stays under price pressure, margins there could remain limited 1.
What to watch
- Pilot launch of the T8 terminal for unmanned platforms2026
- Performance and availability of the Ovzon 3 satellite2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ovzon offers integrated SATCOM solutions that combine satellite capacity, network services and its own mobile terminals in a single end-to-end solution, launched commercially in 2014 1. The company runs a service portfolio, from Ovzon Orion and Ovzon Pegasus based on the Ovzon 3 satellite to Ovzon Hero, Ovzon Plus and Ovzon Go, which use third-party capacity 1. The value proposition is mobility, resilience and performance in environments where terrestrial networks are absent or disrupted 1.
Segments
Mobile satellite terminals
Ovzon develops mobile satellite terminals for On-The-Move and On-The-Pause operation on land, at sea and in the air, with models from the T7 and T6 up to the P30 1. The T8 terminal is in development for unmanned platforms, with a pilot launch planned for 2026 1.
Network and satellite services
Network services integrate the company's own capacity with third-party capacity in a hybrid architecture, monitored from its network operations centre 1. Ovzon Orion and Ovzon Pegasus target mainly defence and authorities, while Ovzon Plus and Ovzon Go address public safety, rescue services and temporary deployments 1.
Ovzon 3 satellite
Ovzon 3 includes steerable antennas, a reprogrammable on-board processor and direct communication between terminals, which reduces latency and increases security 1. The company describes the satellite as the foundation of its network strategy and says it could expand coverage with further proprietary satellites 1.
Market context
The satellite communications market is extending from broadband services to advanced solutions for businesses and mission-critical applications, with rising demand in defence, public safety and other areas where mobility and reliability are essential 1. The company divides this market into mission-critical segments, where price depends on reliability, and mass-market segments, where price pressure is high 1.
Ovzon indicates its position through demand from defence, national security and public safety customers, who require sovereign and disruption-resistant solutions 1. With terrestrial components under strain, satellite communication becomes an independent fallback layer for digital infrastructure 1.
Trends
- Rising demand for resilient communicationstailwind
Armed forces and emergency services need connectivity that remains functional when terrestrial networks are unavailable, which could support demand for Ovzon's solutions 1.
- Growing dependence on digital infrastructuretailwind
As societies rely more on digital networks, the need for independent backup solutions grows, and satellite can complement ground infrastructure 1.
- Price pressure in the mass marketheadwind
In the mass-market segment competition is intense and prices are under pressure, which could limit expansion in those markets 1.
- Evolution of LEO technologiesmixed
LEO constellations are reshaping the satellite market, and the company integrates them into its portfolio as a source of connectivity, which may change the structure of costs and competition 1.
Competitive position
Ovzon compares itself with traditional satellite communications operators and LEO constellation providers, which offer similar connectivity in some scenarios 1. The company's stated advantage is the integration of its own satellite, terminals and network services into one solution 1.
- Traditional commercial satellite operators
Providers of satellite capacity with double-hop architecture, which Ovzon considers less mobile and less resilient 1.
- Broadband LEO constellations
Low-orbit satellite networks that compete on connectivity, which Ovzon partly integrates through third-party capacity 1.
- Mobile and fixed telephony providers
Terrestrial operators are the main alternative where coverage exists, though less relevant in scenarios without infrastructure 1.
- Military SATCOM terminal suppliers
Defence equipment makers compete on mobile terminals and secure solutions for mission-critical use 1.
News & filings
In the press
- ► Ovzon receives order from New U.S. government customer for SATCOM solutions on Ovzon 3European Defence Review · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ovzon AB (publ) · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.