olivLaw · European equity research
Grupa Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne „Police” S.A. PCE.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLZCPLC00036 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Grupa Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne „Police” S.A. is a Polish producer of fertilisers and chemicals whose 2023 results were hit by high energy costs and weaker demand. A net loss of -1 111 532 tys. zł and negative EBITDA of -76 502 tys. zł led to negotiations with lenders and waiver agreements.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Grupa Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne „Police” S.A. (PCE.WA) stock was 7.00 PLN (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 869.7 m PLN, P/E 0.8 on diluted EPS of 8.62 PLN over the last 12 months, beta 0.32, 52-week range 6.88–8.44 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.92 – 7.44
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 7.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.24 / 7.46
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.07 / -0.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.2% | −0.6% | −1.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.4% | −4.2% | −1.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.1% | +4.3% | −13.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.3% | +7.5% | −17.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −15.7% | +9.9% | −25.6 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −43.1% | +49.8% | −92.9 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −42.9% | +42.8% | −85.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 1.4, median 10.3, max 12.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +66.1% | −44.5% |
| Net income | 113.1 m | -135.4 m | -1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −219.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.91 | 1.09 | 8.62 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +19.8% | +690.8% |
| net % | 3.5% | -2.5% | -36.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 45.6 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 754.4 m PLN
- Total assets
- 3.3 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.52x
- ROE
- -81.7%
- ROA
- -28.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 446.2 m | 422.6 m | 7.1 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 161.3 m | -141.5 m | -352.2 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 21.9 m | 72.0 m | 527.7 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 146.3 m | -161.2 m | -1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 33.3 m | -25.8 m | -70.9 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 113.1 m | -135.4 m | -1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.91 | 1.09 | 8.62 | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 275.4 m | 51.0 m | 45.6 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | 361.2 m | 317.2 m | 229.2 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 557.6 m | 768.3 m | 434.1 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 15.3 m | 11.5 m | 14.0 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 754.4 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 124.2 m | — | — | esef· 04 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 869.7 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -36.0% | 8 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.8x | 95 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial8/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial95/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRUPA AZOTY ZAKŁADY CHEMICZNE POLICE S.A. (PCE.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.0 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth -44.5%; net margin -36.0%; ROE -81.7%.
The estimated value range is 54.93–151.59 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 95.36 PLN, the price of 7.00 PLN leaves a potential of 1,262.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 92.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 0.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -36.0%
- Interest coverage: -0.7x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| PCE.WAGrupa Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne Police S.A. | 869.7 m | 0.8 | -81.7% | -36.0% | −44.5% | −14% / −42% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PCE.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Grupa Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne „Police” S.A. is a Polish producer of fertilisers and chemicals whose 2023 results were hit by high energy costs and weaker demand. A net loss of -1 111 532 tys. zł and negative EBITDA of -76 502 tys. zł led to negotiations with lenders and waiver agreements 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has integrated production assets and the ability to keep financing lines open through agreements with its lending banks 1.
- Support from the parent group and from partners in the Polimery Police project provides a diversified funding base 1.
- Management is pursuing energy transition, which could reduce production costs over the longer term 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Going concernhigh
The financial statements are prepared on a going-concern basis, but management identified significant uncertainties linked to the need to maintain financing 1.
- Breach of financial covenantshigh
Exceeding the limit of the net debt to EBITDA ratio and other conditions in financing agreements led to waiver arrangements 1.
- Put options over sharesmedium
The put option granted to partners in the Polimery Police project was valued and recognised as a financial liability with an impact on results 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Movements of the złoty against the euro and dollar could affect results, since the group has significant trade transactions in foreign currency 1.
- Tax risk in Polandmedium
Uncertain tax interpretations and possible penalties could create additional obligations if authorities take a different view 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Compliance with financial covenants and extension of stabilisation agreements with banks2024
- Completion of the Polimery Police project and its delivery deadlines2024
- Trend in EBITDA and net loss in quarterly reportsQ1 2025
- Long-term restructuring plan of the parent group2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2023, the group operates through the parent company and consolidated subsidiaries, with the złoty as functional currency except for foreign subsidiaries using the CFA franc BCEAO 1. The financial statements were prepared on a going-concern basis, which depends however on compliance with covenants in financing agreements 1. The 'Polimery Police' project carried out through Grupa Azoty Polyolefins is a central element of the strategy 1.
The group recorded a negative result in 2023, mainly because gas and other raw material prices stabilised after the volatility of 2022, which forced lower product prices 1. Management described energy transition efforts as a way to run production assets at lower cost 1.
Relations with financing institutions are essential: in August 2023 and April 2024 the parent Grupa Azoty S.A. signed waiver and amendment letters, followed by stabilisation agreements that keep credit limits available 1.
Segments
Fertilisers and chemicals
The main segment is the production of fertilisers and chemicals, where demand in Europe and product prices directly shaped the 2023 financial results 1.
Polyolefins (Grupa Azoty Polyolefins)
The 'Polimery Police' project run through Grupa Azoty Polyolefins S.A. is a development segment, partly financed by investments from PKN Orlen, Hyundai and KIND, with put and call options over shares 1.
Market context
Trends
- Inflationary pressure on demandheadwind
High inflation in early 2023 reduced purchasing power and consumer behaviour in the fertiliser sector 1.
- Stabilisation of gas pricesmixed
Stabilisation of gas and other raw material prices could lower production costs, but it also led to lower product prices 1.
- Weak demand from European industryheadwind
Weaker business sentiment in Europe reduced companies' demand for plastics used in industry 1.
- Energy transitiontailwind
The group is pursuing energy transition measures to run productive assets at lower cost, which could support margins over the longer term 1.
Competitive position
The sources analysed from the annual report do not explicitly name the group's competitors, so the competitive landscape cannot be described from them 1.
Competitive pressure appears indirectly through product prices, which fell as costs stabilised, and through weak demand in the main markets 1.
- No competitors identified in the analysed sources
The annual report does not name direct competitors, so no companies can be indicated from this source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202307 May 2024
- Annual report 202204 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Grupa Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne „Police” S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.