olivLaw · European equity research
Profoto Holding AB (publ) PRFO.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0015962147 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Profoto Holding AB is a Swedish maker of premium lighting solutions for photography and video production, selling LED and Xenon products through retailers and rental companies. Organic sales fell sharply in 2025 as the shift to LED accelerated and competition intensified, prompting a reset of its financial targets. The outcome depends on whether the transition can restore growth and margins.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Profoto Holding AB (publ) (PRFO.ST) stock was 5.90 SEK (−3.59% on the day), with market capitalisation 238.1 m SEK, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.61, 52-week range 5.90–11.10 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.78 – 6.92
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.11 · band width 18.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.81 / 8.23
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.13 / -0.11
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.1% | −0.6% | −5.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.4% | −4.2% | −22.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −35.9% | +4.3% | −40.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −44.1% | +7.5% | −51.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −43.0% | +9.9% | −52.9 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −91.2% | +49.8% | −141.1 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −94.8% | +42.8% | −137.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 787.0 m | 751.0 m | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −4.6% | unavailable |
| Net income | 155.0 m | 126.0 m | -23.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −18.7% | −118.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.88 | 3.15 | -0.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −18.8% | −118.1% |
| net % | 19.7% | 16.8% | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 197.0 m | 78.0 m | 135.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 48.0 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 202.0 m SEK
- Net debt
- 154.0 m SEK
- Equity
- 348.0 m SEK
- Total assets
- 802.0 m SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.58x
- Current ratio
- 1.70x
- ROE
- -6.4%
- ROA
- -2.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 787.0 m | 751.0 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 204.0 m | 167.0 m | -6.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 10.0 m | 12.0 m | 19.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 197.0 m | 158.0 m | -23.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 42.0 m | 32.0 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 155.0 m | 126.0 m | -23.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.88 | 3.15 | -0.57 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.01 | 3.75 | 0.00 | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 95.0 m | 21.0 m | 48.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 100.0 m | 148.0 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 164.0 m | 168.0 m | 146.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 358.0 m | 338.0 m | 296.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 71.0 m | 76.0 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 128.0 m | 132.0 m | 125.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 799.0 m | 872.0 m | 802.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 59.0 m | 56.0 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 79.0 m | 217.0 m | 52.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.0 m | 0 | 150.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 250.0 m | 347.0 m | 174.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 396.0 m | 370.0 m | 348.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 39.9 m | 40.0 m | 40.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 211.0 m | 97.0 m | 151.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 14.0 m | 19.0 m | 16.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 197.0 m ≈ | 78.0 m ≈ | 135.0 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -109.0 m | -133.0 m | -99.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -155.0 m | -38.0 m | -23.0 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 160.0 m | 150.0 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 238.1 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -0.9% | 17 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.1% | 14 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 75 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 56.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Profoto Holding AB (publ) (PRFO.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 751.0 m SEK in 2024; YoY growth -4.6%; net margin -3.1%; ROE -6.4%.
The estimated value range is 35.56–55.38 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.32 SEK, the price of 5.90 SEK leaves a potential of 634.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 86.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- FCF yield: 56.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -0.9%
- Net margin: -3.1%
- Interest coverage: -0.3x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PRFO.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Profoto Holding AB is a Swedish maker of premium lighting solutions for photography and video production, selling LED and Xenon products through retailers and rental companies. Organic sales fell sharply in 2025 as the shift to LED accelerated and competition intensified, prompting a reset of its financial targets. The outcome depends on whether the transition can restore growth and margins.
SWOT
Strengths
- A premium brand recognised by professional photographers and a strong premium market position.
- Steady investment in research and development, with a broad range of LED and Xenon products.
- A global distribution network of retailers and rental companies across dozens of countries.
Weaknesses
- A sharp organic sales decline in 2025 and a negative EBIT margin for the year.
- High dependence on indirect channels, which account for most of revenue.
- A more strained capital structure after net debt rose compared with earlier years.
Opportunities
- An accelerated shift from Xenon to LED could open new replacement cycles.
- The film production segment, where the company reports positive reactions, could grow.
- Rising demand for video and multi-format content could support its modular products.
Threats
- Aggressive price competition and the fast pace of new launches could erode margins.
- Artificial intelligence could reduce some needs for travel and physical production.
- Macroeconomic uncertainty could weigh on clients' equipment budgets.
Risks
- Sales declinehigh
The organic sales decline in 2025 could continue if demand stays weak.
- Margin pressurehigh
The EBIT margin fell below zero, and adjustment measures might not be enough to restore profitability.
- Higher indebtednessmedium
Net debt has increased in recent years, which could limit financial flexibility.
- Competence and staffingmedium
The company says its greatest risk is failing to secure the staff needed for growth.
- Supplier qualitylow
Quality or ethical lapses at external suppliers could affect reputation and sales.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the shift to LED accelerates and the company gains share in film production, organic sales could return to growth.
- The premium brand and global network could support better pricing and higher margins over the long term.
- Cost reduction measures could improve profitability if demand stabilises.
What would break the thesis
- If the sales decline persists, margins could stay under pressure and investment capacity could shrink.
- Aggressive price competition could force discounts that erode the premium position.
- Higher debt could limit strategic options if profitability does not recover.
What to watch
- Organic sales growth and EBIT margin against the revised targets2026
- Launch of ProPanel 3x2 and its impact on the film production segmentQ1 2026
- Net debt level and the ratio of net debt to EBITDAnext 10-K
- Dividend decision and share buyback policy2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Research and development represents 17 per cent of revenue, with a team of 47 people and 24 active patent families 1. In 2025 the company launched five products globally, including L600D, L600C and ProPanel 3x2 1. It operates in 51 countries through a network of more than 200 retailers 1.
In February 2026 the board revised the financial targets to organic growth above 5 per cent and an EBIT margin of 20 per cent, down from earlier goals of 10 per cent growth and 25-30 per cent margin 1. The board proposed no dividend for 2025 to preserve operational flexibility 1.
Segments
Content creators
This segment includes independent photographers and filmmakers producing content for digital platforms, with a premium market estimated at SEK 1 400 m 1. The company offers products such as L600C, B20/B30, A2, A10 and the iPhone Camera app here 1. Demand is growing quickly due to accessible tools and the need for multi-channel content 1.
Large studios
Professional studios are rapidly moving from Xenon to LED for both photography and video, and the premium market is estimated at SEK 500 m 1. Products such as Pro-D3, Pro-11, L1600D and automation systems target this segment 1. The most exclusive brands continue to invest in Xenon solutions for premium productions 1.
Film production
This segment requires high brightness, robust construction and flexibility, and the company says its products are lighter than competing systems 1. The premium film market is estimated at SEK 3 000 m, the largest of the three categories 1. The range includes ProPanel, L1600D and ProFresnel Zoom L600C 1.
Market context
The total lighting solutions market was estimated at about SEK 19 bn in 2025, of which flash for still photography accounts for roughly 20 per cent 1. The company has expanded its addressable market from SEK 3.5 bn to SEK 14.7 bn by entering LED, with premium making up 20 per cent of it 1.
The market is shaped by the shift from Xenon to LED, rising competition and aggressive pricing from new entrants 1. The company says its premium market share is twice that of its nearest competitor 1.
Trends
- Shift from Xenon to LEDtailwind
LED lighting continues to replace Xenon flash, and better camera performance allows work with less light, which favours LED 1. If the transition accelerates, LED sales could offset the Xenon decline 1.
- Competition and aggressive pricingheadwind
New competitors apply aggressive prices and intense campaigns, which could make it harder to hold premium margins 1.
- Artificial intelligencemixed
AI can reduce the need for travel and generate images, but for portraits and fashion real lighting remains essential, supporting demand for lighting equipment 1.
- Growth in video contenttailwind
Photographers must deliver more content across formats, and demand for video material is rising quickly, favouring modular solutions 1.
Competitive position
Profoto operates in a market with smaller competitors and aggressive new entrants on price, and the sources do not name specific competitors. The company states its premium market share is twice that of its closest competitor 1.
To stay competitive the company relies on innovation, a distribution network in 51 countries and high entry barriers for small local suppliers 1.
- Unnamed premium competitor
The source mentions only a nearest premium competitor, without naming it, and a wave of aggressive new entrants.
- Small local suppliers
The source says high entry barriers limit these players, without naming them.
- Aggressive new entrants
The source describes intense campaigns and rapid product development, without naming firms.
- Generalist LED equipment makers
They could compete with cheaper LED offers, but the source does not identify any firm.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Profoto Holding AB (publ) · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.