olivLaw · European equity research
Persimmon Plc PSN.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0006825383 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Persimmon Plc is a UK housebuilder that builds and sells homes across the United Kingdom, with a focus on affordable pricing and vertical integration of its supply chain. Its 2025 annual report stresses circular-economy and decarbonisation commitments as the sector moves toward the new Future Homes Standard, which could change construction costs. The average selling price of Persimmon Homes private homes is £286,145, around 19% below the UK national average.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Persimmon Plc (PSN.L) stock was 13.03 GBP (−0.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.2 bn GBP, P/E 14.8 on diluted EPS of 0.88 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.61%, beta 0.85, 52-week range 9.99–15.44 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.97 – 13.23
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.83 · band width 10.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.11 / 11.87
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.21 / 0.20
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.0% | −0.6% | +5.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.7% | −4.2% | +16.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +17.9% | +4.3% | +13.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.1% | +7.5% | −11.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.0% | +9.9% | −1.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +20.4% | +49.8% | −29.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −51.5% | +42.8% | −94.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.5, median 15.4, max 17.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +15.4% | +17.2% |
| Net income | 255.4 m | 267.1 m | 285.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +4.6% | +7.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +4.0% | +6.7% |
| net % | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% |
| Free cash flow | -166.2 m | 52.6 m | -11.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 117.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 3.6 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 5.3 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.99x
- ROE
- 8.0%
- ROA
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- -0.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 520.1 m | 580.4 m | 616.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 346.9 m | 369.2 m | 423.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 14.8 m | 21.2 m | 37.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 351.8 m | 359.1 m | 397.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 96.4 m | 92.0 m | 111.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 255.4 m | 267.1 m | 285.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.88 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.60 | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 420.1 m | 258.6 m | 117.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 182.0 m | 167.8 m | 249.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.5 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 140.5 m | 154.6 m | 115.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 821.7 m | 806.3 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 948.9 m | 923.3 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 319.3 m | 319.5 m | 319.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -129.8 m | 84.9 m | 29.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 36.4 m | 32.3 m | 40.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -166.2 m ≈ | 52.6 m ≈ | -11.1 m ≈ | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -42.9 m | -45.0 m | 26.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -268.8 m | -201.4 m | -197.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 255.4 m | 191.8 m | 192.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.2 m | 200.0 k | 2.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.2 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.6% | 43 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -3.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.8x | 50 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.7% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial67/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation28/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PERSIMMON PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (PSN.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.8 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 17.2%; net margin 7.6%; ROE 8.0%.
The estimated value range is 7.92–11.32 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.62 GBP, the price of 13.03 GBP leaves a potential of -26.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -35.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 11.2x
- Current ratio: 4.0x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -3.9%
- FCF yield: -0.3%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| PSN.LPersimmon Public Limited Company | 4.2 bn | 14.8 | 8.0% | 7.6% | +17.2% | −2% / +4% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PSN.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.62 Total return -30% · Per year -30% | 15.17 Total return 22% · Per year 22% | 22.75 Total return 81% · Per year 81% |
| 3 years | 10.22 Total return -8% · Per year -3% | 20.06 Total return 73% · Per year 20% | 32.76 Total return 175% · Per year 40% |
| 5 years | 12.12 Total return 17% · Per year 3% | 26.52 Total return 140% · Per year 19% | 47.17 Total return 310% · Per year 33% |
- Exit P/E± 5.01
- Net margin± 3.51
- Annual revenue growth± 2.62
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Persimmon Plc is a UK housebuilder that builds and sells homes across the United Kingdom, with a focus on affordable pricing and vertical integration of its supply chain. Its 2025 annual report stresses circular-economy and decarbonisation commitments as the sector moves toward the new Future Homes Standard, which could change construction costs. The average selling price of Persimmon Homes private homes is £286,145 1, around 19% below the UK national average 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Vertical integration through owned factories for timber frames, wall panels and roof cassettes, supporting controlled costs and build times.
- A national network of sites and diverse landholdings that reduce exposure to regional risks.
- Build and customer service quality, confirmed by high Trustpilot scores and HBF ratings.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on material and labour costs, which can increase construction margins pressure.
- Sensitivity to planning approvals and environmental restrictions, which can delay projects.
- Concentration in the UK residential market with no geographic diversification outside the United Kingdom.
Opportunities
- Circular-economy and material reuse platforms could reduce costs and waste.
- The Future Homes Standard could favour companies already prepared for very low-emission homes.
- Nature-based solutions such as wetlands could unlock planning consents and new sites.
Threats
- Rising carbon costs in the supply chain could squeeze margins.
- Physical risks from flooding and storms could interrupt operations or limit available land.
- Regulatory changes, including new drainage and energy requirements, could raise compliance costs.
Risks
- Supply chainhigh
Supply interruptions or rising material prices could affect construction programmes and margins.
- Planning riskhigh
Approval delays or environmental restrictions could limit the number of homes delivered.
- Climate transitionmedium
Compliance costs for the new energy standard could rise if technologies prove less effective than expected.
- Physical climate risksmedium
Storms and flooding could cause direct damage or delays, although exposure is judged low.
- Geographic concentrationlow
Activity wholly in the United Kingdom exposes the company to changes in the local economy and policy.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Vertical integration and a national land network could support stable margins even when costs are volatile.
- Affordable pricing and high build quality could attract buyers in a market with pent-up demand.
- Sustainability commitments and circular-economy practices could lower costs over the longer term.
What would break the thesis
- Rising carbon and material costs could erode margins if selling prices do not rise in step.
- Reliance on planning approvals could slow deliveries and home completions.
- Exposure to a single market, the United Kingdom, could amplify the effects of a local economic slowdown.
What to watch
- Progress toward the Future Homes Standard and related transition costs2026/2027
- Trends in material and carbon costs across the supply chainnext 10-K
- Waste recycling rate and waste per home sold2026
- Pace of planning approvals and home deliveriesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Persimmon is a UK residential developer operating through several brands and regional operations, including Persimmon Homes and Charles Church 1. It builds its business on a national network of sites supported by Group framework agreements and local supplier relationships 1. The model includes vertical integration: the company owns a timber frame, wall panel and roof cassette factory that supports low-carbon construction and shorter build times 1.
Procurement policy requires suppliers and subcontractors to use FSC or PEFC certified timber across operations 1. The company also reports waste-reduction initiatives, with 98% of waste recycled or reprocessed in 2025 1. Its c.£2.3bn investment in local communities over five years 1 shows the developer treats its role as wider than home building.
The company says affordable pricing and build quality are its strengths, with a 4.6 Trustpilot rating for Persimmon Homes and Charles Church in 2025 1. Its market position depends on land acquisition across the country and on managing material and labour costs.
Segments
Private housing
The main segment is building and selling private homes, with an average price of £286,145 for Persimmon Homes 1. Affordable pricing is central to its value proposition 1.
Market context
Persimmon operates in the United Kingdom, where new-home prices are an important factor in affordability 1. Its average price, around 19% below the national average 1, indicates a strategy aimed at buyers seeking more affordable homes.
The market depends on planning approvals, environmental rules and land availability. The report notes that nutrient neutrality rules and planning requirements can influence timing and the number of homes that can be built 1.
Trends
- Future Homes Standardmixed
The new standard, expected in 2026/2027, could require significant cuts in carbon emissions from homes 1. If it applies as expected, the company could face transition costs, though it is already positioned for heat pumps and higher insulation 1.
- Circular economy in constructiontailwind
The company signed a nationwide contract with Nexus ReGen for reuse of construction materials, which could reduce material costs and waste 1. This could be an advantage if material prices rise 1.
- Material and carbon costsheadwind
The report identifies materials exposed to carbon pricing and resource constraints, which could raise construction costs 1. The company says gross margins embedded in existing landholdings can absorb part of the volatility 1.
- Physical climate risksmixed
Flooding and windstorms could delay construction programmes or raise adaptation costs, but exposure is judged low given careful land selection 1. Residual risks are assessed as low for both transition and physical risk 1.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not identify direct competitors in detail. From the context, the company operates in the UK residential developer market, where competition centres on land, pricing and quality 1.
The competitive advantage described in the report rests on its national land network, vertical integration and construction standards 1. These could differentiate it if material costs rise and affect less integrated rivals.
- Other UK residential developers
The sources do not name competitors. The company operates in the same UK new-home market, where rivals are other national and regional developers.
- Regional developers
Regional competitors can compete for local land and planning approvals, factors the report calls critical.
- Modular construction suppliers
Modern methods of construction can bring competition for timber frame products, a segment where the company is already vertically integrated.
- Sustainability-focused developers
Rivals investing in high carbon standards can attract buyers sensitive to energy efficiency.
News & filings
In the press
- Positive Persimmon looks to tap into ‘Burnham bounce’ on housebuildingThe Guardian World · 06 Aug 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Persimmon Plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.