olivLaw · European equity research
Railcare Group AB RAIL.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0010441139 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Railcare Group AB is a Swedish niche group providing rail freight transport, track maintenance works and technical services for locomotives and machines. The company targets net sales of 1 000 MSEK and an operating margin of 13% by the end of 2027, in a context of rising demand for reliable rail infrastructure.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Railcare Group AB (RAIL.ST) stock was 31.10 SEK (+9.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 750.3 m SEK, P/E 18.8 on diluted EPS of 1.65 SEK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.25%, beta 0.11, 52-week range 26.95–37.90 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.24 – 31.22
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 13.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 29.59 / 31.89
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / -0.13
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.5% | −0.6% | +7.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −14.3% | −4.2% | −10.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.1% | +4.3% | −14.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +8.2% | +7.5% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.7% | +9.9% | +6.8 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | +64.1% | +49.8% | +14.3 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | +35.5% | +42.8% | −7.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 12.1, median 17.4, max 20.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 564.2 m | 635.3 m | 667.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +12.6% | +5.1% |
| Net income | 44.1 m | 30.4 m | 39.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −31.1% | +31.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.83 | 1.26 | 1.65 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −31.1% | +31.0% |
| net % | 7.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% |
| Free cash flow | 78.6 m | 91.2 m | 125.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 66.3 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 87.2 m SEK
- Net debt
- 20.9 m SEK
- Equity
- 310.8 m SEK
- Total assets
- 1.2 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.28x
- Current ratio
- 0.60x
- ROE
- 13.3%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- 18.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 564.2 m | 635.3 m | 667.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 70.3 m | 66.3 m | 67.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 77.2 m | 106.4 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 147.5 m ≈ | 172.7 m ≈ | — | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 12.6 m | 25.9 m | 16.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 57.9 m | 40.8 m | 52.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 13.8 m | 10.4 m | 12.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 44.1 m | 30.4 m | 39.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.83 | 1.26 | 1.65 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.70 | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 39.4 m | 61.7 m | 66.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 92.5 m | 80.9 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 36.3 m | 38.2 m | 68.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 168.2 m | 180.7 m | 235.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 6.3 m | 6.3 m | 6.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 895.7 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 76.5 m | 87.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 237.8 m | 323.5 m | 394.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 273.3 m | 286.5 m | 310.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 24.1 m | 24.1 m | 24.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 136.0 m | 151.7 m | 166.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 57.4 m | 60.5 m | 41.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 78.6 m ≈ | 91.2 m ≈ | 125.4 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -60.7 m | -87.5 m | -46.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -68.0 m | -42.1 m | -115.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 14.5 m | 16.9 m | 16.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 73 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 750.3 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation85
- Balance sheet62
- Returns59
- Quality72
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 73/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 16.3% | 65 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.0% | 56 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 315.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.2x | 42 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.8x | 62 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.4x | 96 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 16.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.3% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 13.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns59/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Railcare Group AB (RAIL.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 667.6 m SEK in 2025; YoY growth 5.1%; net margin 6.0%; ROE 13.3%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 28.69–54.53 SEK per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 36.30 SEK, the price of 31.10 SEK leaves a potential of 16.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 14.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 315.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.4x
- FCF yield: 16.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 13.5%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RAIL.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 18.49 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 32.68 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 49.21 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 18.15 Total return -36% · Per year -14% | 36.08 Total return 23% · Per year 7% | 59.63 Total return 101% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 17.83 Total return -34% · Per year -8% | 39.84 Total return 41% · Per year 7% | 72.26 Total return 150% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 9.02
- Net margin± 6.31
- Annual revenue growth± 5.15
- Annual dilution± 0.53
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Railcare Group AB is a Swedish niche group providing rail freight transport, track maintenance works and technical services for locomotives and machines. The company targets net sales of 1 000 MSEK and an operating margin of 13% by the end of 2027, in a context of rising demand for reliable rail infrastructure 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Unique technical expertise in vacuum and battery technology, with in-house machines that are pioneering, as noted in the report 1.
- An integrated portfolio across three segments, which allows the company to offer complete solutions to customers 1.
- Long-term contracts with Trafikverket and other important customers, providing a stable revenue base 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a small number of large customers, the loss of any of which would have a significant effect on results 1.
- The operating margin of the Entreprenad segment is low, indicating sensitivity to costs and volumes 1.
- The high value of fixed assets exposes the company to impairment risk, although past tests have not shown a need for write-downs 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
The company has relatively few large customers, and losing one of them could significantly affect revenue 1.
- Dependence on public budgetsmedium
Activity depends on infrastructure decisions and government budgets, which can vary over time 1.
- Regulatory compliancemedium
Permits and safety and environmental requirements are strict, and failure to comply could lead to sanctions 1.
- Asset valuationmedium
Machines, locomotives and wagons are recorded at acquisition cost, and overvaluation could lead to impairment 1.
- External conditionslow
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty is high, and its effect on demand is hard to anticipate 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If investment in rail infrastructure materialises, demand for Railcare's works and machines could grow sustainably 1.
- Proprietary vacuum and battery technology gives a niche advantage that could support better margins over time 1.
- Long-term contracts and the integration of three segments could bring stability and operational synergies 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Progress towards net sales of 1 000 MSEK and a 13% operating margin2027
- Delivery of the Railvac machine to the Norwegian operator and new export orders2026
- Development of the Entreprenad segment and its operating margin2026
- Dividend policy of 30-40% of profit after tax and the proposed dividendnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Railcare operates three segments: Transport, Entreprenad and Teknik, on the rail market in Sweden, Norway and other countries. The company combines freight and heavy transport with maintenance works and in-house machine development, from vacuum machines to battery-electric machines 1. Customers include mining operators, rail operators and Trafikverket 1. The head office is in Skelleftehamn 1.
The business model starts from customers' need for a functioning rail network and transport. Railcare offers technical and logistics expertise, specialised solutions for a sustainable rail sector and cleaner transport 1. The company presents itself as a niche group with several business lines that complement each other 1.
The long-term strategy focuses on customers, employees and investments in machines, locomotives and workshops 1. Railcare works on electric vehicles and the modernisation of locomotives, which could widen opportunities if demand for cleaner transport rises 1.
Segments
Transport
Transport is the largest segment, with 54% of group turnover and an operating result of 55 MSEK in fiscal 2025 1. It covers freight transport, ore transport for Kaunis Iron and LKAB, and snow-clearing locomotives contracted by Trafikverket 1.
Market context
The rail market is influenced by economic cycles and political decisions on infrastructure investment, which affect demand for Railcare's products and services 1. Management sees good market prospects, based on key customer relationships and transport demand linked to the green transition 1. However, the company notes that uncertainty in the external environment is high 1.
The company mentions major rail infrastructure investments planned over several years, which could support demand for maintenance works and for its in-house machines 1. Regulation and safety requirements are becoming stricter, which favours suppliers with certifications and experience 1.
Trends
- Rail infrastructure maintenancetailwind
Rising demand for accessible and reliable rail infrastructure, including maintenance works, supports the Entreprenad segment 1.
- Shift to cleaner transporttailwind
The expected growth of rail transport in the EU and Sweden could expand demand for electric machines and modernised locomotives 1.
- Climate and geopolitical risksmixed
Extreme weather and geopolitical tensions increase the vulnerability of the transport system and may affect rail operations 1.
- Regulation and safetymixed
Stricter safety requirements and sustainability reporting raise compliance costs, but may favour suppliers with experience 1.
Competitive position
In rail transport, Railcare faces freight operators and specialised transport providers, including Green Cargo, Hector Rail and ProTrain 1. In maintenance and machines, competition depends on technical expertise, certifications and the ability to deliver quickly 1.
According to the report, Railcare's advantage lies in its position as a flexible, fast niche supplier with in-house machines and integrated workshops 1. Because the number of large customers is small, each customer relationship has a significant impact on results 1.
- Green Cargo
Swedish rail freight operator, cited in the report as a direct competitor in rail transport 1.
- Hector Rail
Rail freight operator, mentioned in the report among actors in rail transport with which Railcare competes 1.
- ProTrain
Rail transport provider, named as a competitor in the company's transport segment 1.
- Infranord
Rail infrastructure company cited as a partner in locomotive modernisation projects, and relevant as a potential competitor in maintenance works 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Railcare Group AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.