olivLaw · European equity research
Rio Tinto plc RIO.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0007188757 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Rio Tinto is a global mining group that explores, builds and operates assets in iron ore, copper, aluminium, lithium and other materials for the energy transition, across 34 countries. In 2025 it completed the Arcadium Lithium acquisition, started shipping iron ore from Simandou and simplified its structure to focus investment, which matters for investors and host communities.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Rio Tinto plc (RIO.L) stock was 62.70 GBP (+1.11% on the day), with beta 0.68, 52-week range 52.26–83.08 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 58.21 – 71.89
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 21.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 69.83 / 71.62
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.41 / -2.38
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.5% | −0.6% | −11.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.9% | −4.2% | −11.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −19.5% | +4.3% | −23.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +4.6% | +7.5% | −2.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +18.8% | +9.9% | +8.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +17.5% | +49.8% | −32.3 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +41.7% | +42.8% | −1.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 55.6 bn | 54.0 bn | 53.7 bn | 57.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −2.7% | −0.7% | +7.4% |
| Net income | 12.4 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.6 bn | 10.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −18.8% | +14.9% | −13.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.60 | 6.17 | 7.07 | 6.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −18.9% | +14.7% | −14.0% |
| net % | 22.3% | 18.6% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 8.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 21.9 bn USD
- Net debt
- 13.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 67.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 128.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.33x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 15.9%
- ROA
- 8.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 55.6 bn | 54.0 bn | 53.7 bn | 57.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 19.9 bn | 14.8 bn | 15.7 bn | 14.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 335.0 m | 967.0 m | 763.0 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 18.7 bn | 13.8 bn | 15.6 bn | 14.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 5.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 12.4 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.6 bn | 10.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 7.60 | 6.17 | 7.07 | 6.08 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 9.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 6.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 21.5 bn | 19.1 bn | 21.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 797.0 m | 727.0 m | 2.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 4.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 5.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 103.5 bn | 102.8 bn | 128.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 8.2 bn | 8.2 bn | 10.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 824.0 m | 180.0 m | 733.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 12.2 bn | 12.3 bn | 21.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 47.2 bn | 44.8 bn | 61.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 52.7 bn | 56.3 bn | 58.0 bn | 67.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
40% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 68.69 – 105.93 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E68.69 – 105.93 (Mid 87.77)17 companies used · median multiple 14.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 17.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.8% | 50 (vs peers) | 26% |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.3% | 63 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.2% | 10 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -7.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 14.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth5/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality55/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
RIO TINTO PLC (RIO.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 57.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.4%; net margin 17.3%; ROE 17.0%.
The estimated value range is 68.69–105.93 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 14.1x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -7.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RIO.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Rio Tinto is a global mining group that explores, builds and operates assets in iron ore, copper, aluminium, lithium and other materials for the energy transition, across 34 countries. In 2025 it completed the Arcadium Lithium acquisition, started shipping iron ore from Simandou and simplified its structure to focus investment, which matters for investors and host communities 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified portfolio of large-scale assets across several countries and materials, with a leading position in iron ore and copper 1.
- Stable dividend policy and a ten-year record of paying 60% of underlying earnings as dividends 1.
- The Safe Production System is deployed at all managed sites, supporting operational stability 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Operational safetyhigh
Falling objects and vehicle incidents remain the main causes of potentially fatal incidents, and 2025 saw one fatality and one permanent damage injury 1.
- Water riskhigh
Water-constrained areas in the Pilbara are rated high risk, and efforts to reduce groundwater withdrawals are still under way 1.
- Delays on large projectsmedium
Major projects such as Simandou or the hydro modernisations could exceed budget or schedule, especially given their complexity 1.
- Relations with Indigenous communitiesmedium
Protection of cultural heritage and co-management arrangements could change operating conditions if disputes arise 1.
- Greenhouse gas emissionslow
Gross Scope 1 and 2 emissions remain significant, and decarbonisation goals would require additional investment if reductions do not materialise 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the lithium, copper and Simandou projects deliver on time and on budget, the company could benefit from a more diversified asset base and higher output 1.
- The position in iron ore and copper, combined with the dividend policy, could support total shareholder returns over the medium term 1.
- Agreements with communities and renewable energy investments could reduce regulatory and cost risks 1.
What would break the thesis
- If safety and water risks materialise, output and reputation could suffer and remediation costs could rise 1.
- Delays in major projects could strain the balance sheet, especially given a higher net gearing ratio than the prior year 1.
- Dependence on commodity prices and Chinese steel demand could cut earnings if markets weaken, although the sources do not detail this 1.
What to watch
- Progress of the lithium project towards 200 kt of lithium carbonate equivalent capacity2028
- Ramp-up of the Simandou mine and volumes of exported ore2026
- Rate of potentially fatal incidents and AIFR in the annual reportnext 10-K
- Approval and execution of the Isle-Maligne modernisation project2032
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Rio Tinto describes its business model in five stages: discovery (find), construction (build), operation (operate), sale and logistics (sell, move and buy) and closure (close), all guided by safety as the top priority 1. At the end of 2025 the group had operating assets valued at 77 billion USD, up from 61 billion USD in 2024, with an average workforce of 61,000 employees 1. The company aims to be the most valued metals and mining business, with a dividend policy of 40% to 60% of underlying earnings 1.
Segments
Iron Ore
Pilbara iron ore operations in Western Australia are the core of the business; in 2025 four cyclones cut first-quarter output, but record rates from April onwards kept full-year Pilbara production stable. In December 2025 the first shipment of ore left Simandou in Guinea, the largest integrated mining project in Africa 1.
Aluminium and Copper
Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia completed its underground mine development, and copper production rose 11% year on year, helped by a record 61% increase in underground copper output 1. On aluminium, the modernisation of the Isle-Maligne hydroelectric plant in Quebec, with a 1.2 billion USD investment running to 2032, supports low-carbon aluminium production 1.
Market context
The company sells raw materials to the steel, aluminium and energy transition technology industries, including lithium, for which it targets 200 kt of lithium carbonate equivalent capacity by 2028 1. End markets depend on global demand for low-carbon steel and electrification, which are external factors that are hard to predict.
Trends
- Energy transition demand for lithium and coppertailwind
Demand for materials such as lithium, copper and gallium could rise as the energy transition advances, and the Arcadium Lithium acquisition places the company among leaders in this field 1.
- Large project costs and capital disciplinemixed
Major projects such as Simandou or the energy modernisations carry delay and cost risks, and the company says it is pursuing capital discipline to keep them on schedule and within budget 1.
- Climate and water risksheadwind
The 2025 cyclones and high water risk exposure in the Pilbara could affect output and costs, while decarbonisation requirements pressure energy and transport operations 1.
- Community and cultural heritage relationsmixed
Co-management agreements with Indigenous communities, such as the one with PKKP, provide long-term stability but may add conditions to new projects 1.
Competitive position
The company presents itself as a leader in iron ore, copper, aluminium and lithium, backed by a diversified portfolio and large-scale assets 1. The supplied sources do not name direct competitors, so the competitor list below relies only on partners and industry counterparts mentioned in the filing.
- BHP
Counterpart in Pilbara iron ore; the filing mentions a joint trial of battery-electric haul trucks with BHP and Caterpillar 1.
- Sumitomo Metal Mining
Joint venture partner in the Winu copper-gold project in Western Australia 1.
- Edify Energy
Supplier of solar and storage services for the BSL smelter in Queensland under hybrid service agreements 1.
- Indium Corporation
Research partner for extracting gallium from bauxite processed at the Vaudreuil refinery in Canada 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi Copper Mine Halts Underground OperationsBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cât trebuie să câştige şeful unui gigant minier pentru a nu pleca la concurenţă? Aproape 10 milioane de lire pe an şi bonusuri care pot depăşi 18 milioane. Rio Tinto vrea să majoreze cu 56% pachetul salarial-ţintă al CEO-ului Simon TrottZiarul Financiar · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Rio Tinto to Spend $1.9 Billion on Australian Bauxite ExpansionBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto and China State Buyer Agree Deal on Iron Ore SuppliesBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto Maintains Copper Production While Iron Ore Sales RiseBloomberg Markets · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Mining Giant Rio Tinto Plans to Expand Metals Trading BusinessBloomberg Markets · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Prysmian, Rio Tinto partner to bring low-carbon aluminum to Amazon data centerCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- Aurukun Deal Gives Rio Tinto (RIO) More Bauxite Upside, But Risks RemainYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto to take over Queensland’s Aurukun Bauxite ProjectYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Australia’s largest aluminium smelter to run on renewables by 2023 after Rio Tinto strikes $2.5bn taxpayer bailout dealThe Guardian World · 13 Aug 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto Aluminum Smelter Gets $1.8 Billion Australian BailoutBloomberg Markets · 12 Aug 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto Says Iron Ore Demand Remains Resilient, StableBloomberg Markets · 29 Jul 2026 · EN
- Iran war and AI demand help drive revenue at Rio Tinto, WoodsideNikkei Asia · 29 Jul 2026 · RO
- Rio Tinto in Talks With Vitol Over Venture to Cut Freight CostsBloomberg Markets · 25 Jun 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto Resumes Copper Exports From Massive Mongolian MineBloomberg Markets · 18 Jun 2026 · EN
- Protests at Rio Tinto’s Mongolia Copper Mine Disrupt CargoesBloomberg Markets · 17 Jun 2026 · EN
- BHP and Rio Tinto See India Driving Steel’s Next Wave of GrowthBloomberg Markets · 16 Jun 2026 · EN
- Rio Tinto’s Aluminum Exports to US Rebound to Pretariff LevelsBloomberg Markets · 29 May 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Rio Tinto plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.