olivLaw · European equity research
SalMar ASA SALM.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0010310956 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
SalMar ASA is the world's second largest salmon producer, running integrated salmon farming across the full life cycle of the fish, from roe and smolt to finished product. The company is expanding production and exploring offshore aquaculture within a Norwegian regulatory framework that is still under debate, so its development depends on regulatory conditions and biological health of the fish. Harvest of 284,500 tons in 2025 and revenue of 27,394 MNOK define its weight in the industry.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, SalMar ASA (SALM.OL) stock was 572.50 NOK (−1.72% on the day), with market capitalisation 76.7 bn NOK, P/E 69.5 on diluted EPS of 8.24 NOK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.84%, beta 0.45, 52-week range 452.40–622.00 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 541.85 – 602.45
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.51 · band width 10.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 566.86 / 549.56
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 5.72 / 5.79
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.2% | −0.6% | +3.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.4% | −4.2% | +13.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +7.7% | +4.3% | +3.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.3% | +7.5% | −14.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +9.9% | −9.2 pp | −4.7% |
| 3 years | +10.1% | +49.8% | −39.7 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −9.5% | +42.8% | −52.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 23.4, median 24.0, max 74.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.2 bn | 26.4 bn | 27.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −6.4% | +3.7% |
| Net income | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −7.3% | −62.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 24.33 | 22.49 | 8.24 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −7.6% | −63.4% |
| net % | 11.4% | 11.2% | 4.0% |
| Free cash flow | 6.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.4 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 759.0 m NOK
- Financial debt
- 21.6 bn NOK
- Net debt
- 20.8 bn NOK
- Equity
- 20.1 bn NOK
- Total assets
- 57.9 bn NOK
- Debt / equity
- 1.07x
- Current ratio
- 2.05x
- ROE
- 5.5%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (NOK)
Margins
Income statement · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.2 bn | 26.4 bn | 27.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 12.9 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 15.3 bn ≈ | 13.7 bn ≈ | 13.3 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Operating income | 8.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 9.9 bn ≈ | 7.0 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | — | 4.2 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 4.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 571.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 24.33 | 22.49 | 8.24 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 20.90 | 35.00 | 22.00 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 785.0 m | 518.0 m | 759.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 17.8 bn | 17.9 bn | 18.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.4 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 53.3 bn | 54.4 bn | 57.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 12.2 bn | 15.5 bn | 19.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.8 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 30.3 bn | 34.2 bn | 37.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 23.1 bn | 20.2 bn | 20.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 131.5 m | 131.8 m | 133.9 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 9.0 bn | 5.4 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 6.7 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 1.8 bn | -2.2 bn | -2.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -13.0 bn | -3.5 bn | -992.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.7 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 50.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 35 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 76.7 bn NOK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns34
- Balance sheet43
- Valuation14
- Quality58
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 35/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.9% | 36 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.0% | 53 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 129.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 20 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 69.5x | 5 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 20.1x | 14 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.9% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.0% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 210.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality58/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns34/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SALMAR ASA (SALM.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 27.4 bn NOK in 2025; YoY growth 3.7%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 6.2%; net debt/EBITDA 4.3x.
The estimated value range is 138.04–260.32 NOK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 169.80 NOK, the price of 572.50 NOK leaves a potential of -70.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -237.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 35/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 129.9%
- Current ratio: 2.0x
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.3x
- P/E (TTM): 69.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 20.1x
- FCF yield: 1.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 210.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 79.8 bn | 20.3 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +36% / +59% |
| SALM.OLSalmar Asa | 76.7 bn | 69.5 | 6.2% | 4.0% | +3.7% | −3% / −3% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.5 bn | 19.8 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +8% / +69% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.2 bn | 39.3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +10% / +73% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.5 bn | 21.4 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +11% / +36% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.6 bn | 37.1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −7% / +10% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.6 bn | 25.1 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −18% / −9% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.8 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +17% / +44% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +39% / +31% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.8 bn | 14.3 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +40% / +238% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.7 bn | 31.2 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +152% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.0 bn | 14.2 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −19% / −16% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 4.0 bn | 61.9 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −5% / +29% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.6 bn | 10.7 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −13% / +20% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.2 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −18% / −11% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.6 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +61% / +15% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.5 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −53% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 108.9 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −8% / −48% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 884.6 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −33% / −66% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 553.2 m | 36.1 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −7% / +41% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 234.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 73.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.1 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −82% / −97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SALM.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (NOK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 335.96 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 594.19 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 895.35 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 320.59 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 638.52 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 1,057.20 Total return 91% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 305.93 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 686.16 Total return 28% · Per year 5% | 1,248.30 Total return 129% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 159.63
- Net margin± 111.74
- Annual revenue growth± 92.47
- Annual dilution± 9.39
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
SalMar ASA is the world's second largest salmon producer, running integrated salmon farming across the full life cycle of the fish, from roe and smolt to finished product. The company is expanding production and exploring offshore aquaculture within a Norwegian regulatory framework that is still under debate, so its development depends on regulatory conditions and biological health of the fish. Harvest of 284,500 tons in 2025 and revenue of 27,394 MNOK define its weight in the industry 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Full vertical integration, from roe to finished product, gives control over quality and production predictability.
- The company is an important customer for many of its suppliers, which gives it leverage and priority in contracts.
- Technical expertise and internal capacity to develop support the assessment and execution of material new opportunities.
Weaknesses
- Operations are geographically concentrated in Norway and Iceland, exposing the company to local regulation and conditions.
- Fish mortality and disease represent a direct financial risk, because the main income comes from selling the salmon it produces.
- The company does not sell directly to final consumers, which limits its control over how the product is presented in the market.
Opportunities
- New production technologies and offshore farming systems could improve fish welfare and increase production volume.
- Voluntary sustainability certifications such as ASC could open additional markets.
- A predictable licensing framework, if adopted, could stimulate investment and capacity expansion.
Threats
- Regulatory uncertainty, including the resource rent tax, could reduce investment and slow growth.
- The market ban on exports to Russia and Belarus restricts access to certain markets.
- Global competition among efficient food producers and biological risks could affect margins.
Risks
- Fish mortality and diseasehigh
Fish losses affect both animal welfare and revenue, as they are a direct cost and can reduce the volume sold.
- Aquaculture regulation in Norwayhigh
The resource rent tax and the future licensing system remain uncertain, and changes could alter investment plans.
- Escapes of farmed salmonmedium
Escapes of farmed salmon can affect wild populations, and the company may face additional control requirements.
- Export restrictionsmedium
The market ban for Russia and Belarus limits access to certain markets and may affect sales volumes.
- Food safetymedium
A food safety incident could harm the company's reputation and lead to remediation demands from customers.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Full value-chain integration and a leading position by volume could support cost and quality advantages if production conditions remain favourable.
- A more predictable regulatory framework could unlock postponed investment in growth and offshore aquaculture.
- Global demand for sustainable protein, supported by population growth, could underpin sales volumes over the longer term.
What would break the thesis
- If regulatory uncertainty persists, investment could stay low and planned expansion could be delayed.
- Biological risks such as mortality and disease can reduce volumes and raise costs in any given year.
- Export restrictions and global competitive pressure could limit margins and access to high-value markets.
What to watch
- Delivery of the production volume guided for next year2026
- Final form of the licensing system and tax regime in Norway2026
- Trend in fish mortality and biological performance indicatorsQ1 2027
- Decision on resuming the Smart Fish Farm project2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
SalMar owns and controls every stage of the salmon life cycle, from roe production and broodstock breeding through processing, packaging and logistics, which gives it control over quality and production predictability 1. Farming takes place in coastal areas of Norway and Iceland, with sea-based growing, land-based smolt production and in-house processing 1. The company mainly sells to retailers, restaurants and wholesalers rather than directly to final consumers 1.
The company describes its business model as resilient and flexible enough to address evolving risks, thanks to internal capacity to assess and execute material development opportunities 1. Suppliers are diversified, and SalMar is often the largest customer of these suppliers, which gives it leverage in negotiations 1. Its main market in 2025 was Europe, followed by Asia and North America 1.
SalMar reports it is not active in fossil fuel, chemical production, controversial weapons or tobacco sectors, and a market ban on salmon exports to Russia and Belarus limits access to certain markets 1. Employees are concentrated in Norway and Iceland, with a small number in Asian sales offices 1.
Segments
Salmon farming in Central Norway
This segment, where the company first established its business, has a capacity of 89,733 tonnes MAB across production areas 5, 6 and 7 and operates two smolt facilities, one using RAS technology 1. Environmental conditions are favourable thanks to the Gulf Stream and stable sea temperatures 1.
Salmon farming in Northern Norway
The segment has grown gradually since 2000 to cover the full value chain in the north, with a capacity of 78,181 tonnes MAB across areas 10, 11, 12 and 13 and its head office on Senja 1.
Market context
The farmed salmon market is dominated by a few large producers, and SalMar describes its position as second in the world by volume 1. Demand for high-quality salmon remains strong, and the company says it has no significant dependence on specific customers 1. Norwegian aquaculture competes in global markets with other efficient food producers 1.
The Norwegian regulatory environment, including the resource rent tax and the norm price regime, has created uncertainty and reduced investment activity 1. Parliament returned the aquaculture white paper to the government for further analysis, which could open the way for a more predictable licensing system 1.
Trends
- Debate on aquaculture regulation in Norwaymixed
Parliament's return of the aquaculture white paper offers a better basis for a licensing system that supports sustainable growth, but the final form remains uncertain 1. If the framework becomes predictable, investment could return.
- Resource rent tax and norm pricesheadwind
The introduction of the resource rent tax and the norm price regime created uncertainty and reduced investment, a negative effect for expansion plans 1.
- Offshore expansiontailwind
Offshore aquaculture offers long-term growth prospects, and the biological performance of existing units has been strong, supporting the potential for expansion 1.
- Geopolitical and biological uncertaintyheadwind
The industry operates under biological and geopolitical uncertainty, and the market ban on exports to Russia and Belarus restricts access to certain markets 1.
Competitive position
The salmon industry is concentrated, and SalMar competes with other Norwegian and Icelandic producers in global markets where production efficiency is decisive 1. The supplied sources do not explicitly name competitors and provide no comparative data on their market share 1.
The company notes it benchmarks its reporting against industry peers and started a CSRD roundtable for the sector, showing a concern for common standards 1.
- Mowi ASA
Norwegian farmed salmon producer, mentioned in the sources only as part of the industry, with no comparative details in the supplied texts.
- Lerøy Seafood Group
Norwegian fish and salmon producer active in the same industry, with no comparative data in the supplied sources.
- Cermaq Group
Aquaculture operator active in several countries, mentioned as part of the same global salmon market.
- Grieg Seafood
Norwegian salmon producer with farming operations in the same area of activity, with no comparative data in the supplied sources.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202308 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / SalMar ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.