olivLaw · European equity research
Sensys Gatso Group AB SGG.ST
Sweden · Nasdaq Stockholm · ISIN SE0020356244 · Vertical: Listed companies from Sweden
Sensys Gatso Group AB is a Swedish supplier of automated traffic safety systems, including speed and red-light cameras, that is expanding its TRaaS (Traffic Enforcement as a Service) model to build recurring revenue. The company estimates 2026 revenue of between 750 and 800 million Swedish kronor, in a global market it values at about 4.4 billion USD.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG.ST) stock was 41.15 SEK (−2.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 474.3 m SEK, beta 0.46, 52-week range 34.75–50.70 SEK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 41.12 – 43.74
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.01 · band width 6.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.65 / 41.41
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.32 / -0.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.3% | −0.6% | −6.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.0% | −4.2% | +6.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.5% | +4.3% | −3.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.9% | +7.5% | −4.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.9% | +9.9% | −1.1 pp | −8.5% |
| 3 years | −37.2% | +49.8% | −87.0 pp | +12.3% |
| 5 years | −47.6% | +42.8% | −90.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 623.5 m | 631.2 m | 719.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.2% | +13.9% |
| Net income | 12.2 m | 5.9 m | -4.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −51.4% | −181.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.06 | 0.51 | -0.42 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −51.9% | −182.4% |
| net % | 2.0% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| Free cash flow | -84.2 m | -17.3 m | 70.5 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 159.7 m SEK
- Financial debt
- 326.7 m SEK
- Net debt
- 167.0 m SEK
- Equity
- 582.5 m SEK
- Total assets
- 1.1 bn SEK
- Debt / equity
- 0.56x
- Current ratio
- 3.08x
- ROE
- -0.8%
- ROA
- -0.4%
- FCF margin
- 9.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (SEK)
Margins
Income statement · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 623.5 m | 631.2 m | 719.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 371.0 m | 390.0 m | 419.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 252.5 m | 241.2 m | 299.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 46.1 m | 50.4 m | 55.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 39.3 m | 20.3 m | 57.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 14.8 m | 20.4 m | 54.6 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 23.0 m | 9.1 m | 1.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 10.1 m | 3.4 m | 6.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 12.2 m | 5.9 m | -4.8 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.06 | 0.51 | -0.42 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 11.5 k | 11.5 k | 11.5 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 48.8 m | 165.3 m | 159.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 379.4 m | 373.0 m | 341.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 100.3 m | 167.3 m | 177.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 428.2 m | 538.3 m | 500.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 127.7 m | 165.3 m | 184.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 273.4 m | 286.3 m | 262.4 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 961.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 64.1 m | 20.2 m | 403.0 k | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 49.3 m | 337.5 m | 326.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 226.5 m | 164.6 m | 162.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 325.9 m | 528.5 m | 535.1 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 635.7 m | 617.9 m | 582.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 11.5 m | 11.6 m | 11.5 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · SEK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -18.3 m | 44.2 m | 124.7 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 65.9 m | 61.5 m | 54.2 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -84.2 m ≈ | -17.3 m ≈ | 70.5 m ≈ | esef· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -102.6 m | -93.4 m | -96.3 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 70.7 m | 160.1 m | -24.9 m | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 44.0 m | 0 | esef· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 474.3 m SEK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.2% | 30 (vs peers) | 25% |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.7% | 22 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality27/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Sensys Gatso Group AB (SGG.ST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 719.1 m SEK in 2025; YoY growth 13.9%; net margin -0.7%; ROE -0.8%.
The estimated value range is 140.41–216.37 SEK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 170.48 SEK, the price of 41.15 SEK leaves a potential of 314.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 75.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 3.1x
- FCF yield: 14.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -0.7%
- Interest coverage: 1.1x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Sweden · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALFA.STAlfa Laval AB | 223.0 bn | 27.0 | 19.4% | 11.9% | +4.1% | +21% / +38% |
| BOL.STBoliden Ab | 143.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.3% | 10.1% | +4.8% | +12% / +81% |
| CAST.STCastellum Aktiebolag | 66.6 bn | 71.0 | 1.2% | 9.8% | −2.6% | +27% / +6% |
| AAK.STAak Ab (publ) | 47.5 bn | 13.9 | 17.2% | 7.5% | +2.2% | −31% / −14% |
| CAMX.STCamurus AB | 42.5 bn | 58.5 | 19.5% | 32.5% | +21.3% | +16% / +55% |
| BRAV.STBravida Holding AB | 30.1 bn | 24.5 | 13.7% | 4.4% | −4.9% | +84% / +123% |
| ASKER.STAsker Healthcare Group AB | 29.8 bn | 60.5 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +11.7% | −18% / unavailable |
| ALLEI.STAlleima AB | 22.7 bn | 33.8 | 4.1% | 3.6% | −5.4% | +11% / +19% |
| BURE.STBure Equity AB | 22.6 bn | — | -21.0% | — | unavailable | +20% / +19% |
| AQ.STAQ Group AB | 19.7 bn | 29.2 | 14.9% | 7.5% | +6.0% | +14% / +119% |
| ALTRA.STAltra Fastigheter AB | 18.4 bn | 33.9 | 3.0% | 15.1% | −2.2% | +9% / +19% |
| ATT.STAttendo AB (publ) | 16.8 bn | 20.7 | 15.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +34% / +223% |
| AFRY.STAfry Ab | 14.9 bn | 18.7 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −5.2% | −17% / +4% |
| ATRLJ-B.STAtrium Ljungberg AB | 14.0 bn | 17.1 | 2.9% | 23.9% | −2.0% | −33% / −44% |
| ALIG.STAlimak Group AB (publ) | 12.7 bn | 21.3 | 8.2% | 8.8% | −3.2% | −18% / +50% |
| ACAD.STAcadeMedia AB | 12.7 bn | 15.5 | 12.7% | 4.3% | +9.7% | +22% / +138% |
| APOTEA.STApotea AB (publ) | 10.7 bn | 46.8 | 31.3% | 3.2% | +10.1% | +15% / unavailable |
| BOOZT.STBoozt AB | 10.6 bn | 37.9 | 10.4% | 3.6% | +0.5% | +58% / +44% |
| BUFAB.STBufab AB (publ) | 5.0 bn | 9.2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | −7.4% | +36% / +110% |
| ACTI.STActive Biotech AB (publ) | 4.9 bn | — | -84.5% | — | unavailable | −32% / −77% |
| CEVI.STCellaVision AB | 4.7 bn | 30.8 | 18.0% | 20.2% | +4.9% | +20% / +12% |
| COOR.STCoor Service Management Holding AB | 4.7 bn | 18.2 | 13.0% | 2.2% | +16.7% | +1% / +25% |
| BHG.STBHG Group AB | 4.5 bn | 31.1 | 2.5% | 1.4% | +6.2% | −18% / +113% |
| CARA.STCarasent AB (publ) | 1.8 bn | 51.7 | 4.1% | 10.1% | +24.9% | −8% / +87% |
| BICO.STBICO Group AB | 1.7 bn | — | -46.0% | -72.7% | −13.3% | +16% / −51% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SGG.ST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (SEK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Sensys Gatso Group AB is a Swedish supplier of automated traffic safety systems, including speed and red-light cameras, that is expanding its TRaaS (Traffic Enforcement as a Service) model to build recurring revenue. The company estimates 2026 revenue of between 750 and 800 million Swedish kronor, in a global market it values at about 4.4 billion USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has long relationships with authorities in several countries and a portfolio of TRaaS contracts that generate recurring revenue 1.
- Its systems are certified and recognised for reliability and image quality, which supports tender success 1.
- A structure of local subsidiaries allows adaptation to the differing legal requirements of each country 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Financing and refinancing riskhigh
Debt is large and partly at floating rates, so a rise in interest rates could reduce earnings and equity 1.
- Currency riskmedium
The main exposure is to EUR and USD, and a 10% currency move could materially change equity 1.
- Project riskmedium
Operational risk is concentrated in each individual project, and delays or errors could affect margins 1.
- Geopolitical risk in the Middle Eastmedium
Activity in the region depends on conditions in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and a prolonged conflict could have negative effects 1.
- Labour cost risklow
Wage increases cannot always be passed fully to customers, which could reduce margins 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If TRaaS revenue keeps growing, the company could achieve a cash flow more predictable than that from system sales alone 1.
- Long-term contracts, such as the 12-year Swedish agreement, give visibility on future revenue 1.
- The global road safety market is described as growing steadily, which could support new contracts 1.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates stay high, the cost of debt could significantly reduce profitability 1.
- Revenue from systems remains volatile, and the lack of indexation clauses may limit margins 1.
- Dependence on a few large markets and on public authority contracts could make results sensitive to political decisions 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against the 2026 revenue guidance of 750-800 million SEK2026
- Development of debt levels and interest costsQ1 2027
- New TRaaS contracts in the USA and Australia2027
- Deliveries under the Dubai contract for 2023-2027next 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Sensys Gatso designs, delivers, maintains and operates automated traffic enforcement systems, including fixed and mobile speed cameras, red-light monitoring and average-speed systems. The group, headquartered in Jönköping and listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Small Cap, has subsidiaries in the USA, Sweden, the Netherlands, the Middle East and Australia 1. It focuses on recurring TRaaS revenue alongside system sales, which it describes as volatile 1.
Under the TRaaS model Sensys Gatso owns and operates systems on behalf of the customer, with contracts based on a fixed monthly fee, a price per issued or paid fine, or a combination. In the USA contracts are typically signed with local authorities for 5 to 7 years 1. The strategy aims for steadier revenue than system sales alone 1.
During 2025 the company announced many TRaaS and maintenance contracts, from Longmont in Colorado and East Providence in Rhode Island to Tasmania and Victoria in Australia 1. In May 2025 it named a new CEO tasked with driving profitable growth 1.
Segments
TRaaS operator services
This segment covers contracts under which Sensys Gatso operates the customer's systems and is the main source of recurring revenue. In North America only this model is used, with over 45 contracts in 11 states 1.
System sales and service
This includes sales of monitoring systems, such as the Swedish contract with Trafikverket valued at 850 million kronor over 12 years, with deliveries expected at about 400 million kronor in the first six years 1. It also covers maintenance of mobile equipment, as in Victoria or Saudi Arabia 1.
Maintenance contracts
Maintenance of traffic systems, including vehicle-mounted equipment, provides steady revenue over long periods. 2025 examples include contracts with Serco in Victoria and with South Australia Police 1.
Market context
The company operates in the global road safety market, valued at about 4.4 billion USD a year with an estimated annual growth rate of 9% 1. The market is fragmented by national and local rules, and many governments require independent type approval of equipment, a lengthy process 1.
Procurement can be centralised, with one national authority, or decentralised, with cities or provinces choosing suppliers 1. Enforcement programmes generally take five to seven years to implement and often include contract extensions 1.
Trends
- Shift to recurring TRaaS revenuemixed
The service model could stabilise revenue if the number of contracts grows, since it smooths out peaks in system sales 1. The same model, however, requires capital investment before payments are received.
- Growth in road safety markettailwind
The global traffic enforcement market is estimated to grow about 9% a year, which could support demand for new programmes 1.
- Inflation and personnel costsheadwind
High inflation in 2025 raised personnel costs, and the company could not fully pass these on to customers because some contracts lack indexation clauses and prices were fixed in tenders 1.
- Tariffs and interest ratesmixed
US tariffs apply to imported equipment, but the company does not expect a significant effect. Higher interest rates raise the cost of debt, since most borrowing carries floating rates 1.
Competitive position
Sensys Gatso competes with other global suppliers of traffic systems, and the choice depends on technology, certification and the procurement model. Customers may use one or several suppliers, depending on the risks they want to spread 1.
The company cites the reliability of its systems and image resolution, demonstrated in comparative assessments, together with long relationships with customers such as Trafikverket and Dubai police 1. The source does not name direct competitors.
- Global traffic system suppliers
The source does not name individual competitors. The company works through a network of subsidiaries and partners, such as KTC in Dubai 1.
- Local distribution partners
In some markets the company works indirectly through local partners, which implies a different competitive setting in each country 1.
- Traffic service operators
In markets where authorities outsource operation, service providers may compete directly with the company 1.
- Road safety system integrators
Large contracts are often won through consortia, which can bring in competitors from other parts of the industry 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202526 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Sensys Gatso Group AB · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.