olivLaw · European equity research
Trainline plc TRN.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BKDTK925 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Trainline is an online platform selling rail and coach tickets across the UK, Europe and to business clients. In fiscal 2026 net ticket sales reached £6,319 million and operating profit rose 43%, making the company relevant as European rail opens to new carriers.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Trainline plc (TRN.L) stock was 2.00 GBP (−4.58% on the day), with market capitalisation 822.0 m GBP, P/E 10.5 on diluted EPS of 0.19 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.52, 52-week range 1.86–2.71 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.98 – 2.26
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 13.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.03 / 2.14
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / 0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.7% | −0.6% | +3.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.7% | −4.2% | −14.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.8% | +4.3% | −19.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.3% | +7.5% | −16.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −25.1% | +9.9% | −35.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −28.8% | +49.8% | −78.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −38.6% | +42.8% | −81.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.2, median 24.2, max 43.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 396.7 m | 442.1 m | 452.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.4% | +2.4% |
| Net income | 34.0 m | 58.3 m | 79.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +71.7% | +36.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +78.6% | +51.1% |
| net % | 8.6% | 13.2% | 17.6% |
| Free cash flow | 118.9 m | 136.8 m | 116.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Feb 2026
- Cash
- 59.7 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 227.1 m GBP
- Net debt
- 167.4 m GBP
- Equity
- 204.4 m GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- 1.11x
- Current ratio
- 0.63x
- ROE
- 32.8%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- 25.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 396.7 m | 442.1 m | 452.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 91.4 m | 89.8 m | 78.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 305.3 m | 352.3 m | 373.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 55.6 m | 85.6 m | 122.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 41.7 m | 43.2 m | 40.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 97.2 m ≈ | 128.7 m ≈ | 163.2 m ≈ | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 10.2 m | 8.7 m | 12.1 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 48.1 m | 80.9 m | 114.3 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 14.1 m | 22.5 m | 34.5 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 34.0 m | 58.3 m | 79.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.19 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 91.1 m | 76.8 m | 59.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 59.2 m | 67.2 m | 88.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 150.3 m | 144.9 m | 148.6 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 17.9 m | 11.1 m | 47.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 418.5 m | 416.2 m | 420.2 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 70.4 m | 74.7 m | 81.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 212.8 m | 218.0 m | 223.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 841.0 k | 83.0 m | 600.0 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 139.9 m | 68.1 m | 226.5 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 221.8 m | 305.3 m | 234.6 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 312.0 m | 282.7 m | 204.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 467.5 m | 445.7 m | 411.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 121.7 m | 138.2 m | 133.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.9 m | 1.4 m | 16.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 118.9 m ≈ | 136.8 m ≈ | 116.2 m ≈ | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -40.7 m | -42.7 m | -53.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -45.6 m | -109.1 m | -97.2 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 81 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 822.0 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality81
- Balance sheet72
- Valuation87
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 81/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 23.5% | 79 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.6% | 66 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 145.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 85 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.5x | 83 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.1x | 81 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TRAINLINE PLC (TRN.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-02-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 452.7 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth 2.4%; net margin 17.6%; ROE 32.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.
The estimated value range is 2.52–3.79 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.10 GBP, the price of 2.00 GBP leaves a potential of 55.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 35.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 81/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 23.5%
- FCF conversion: 145.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.0x
- Interest coverage: 10.1x
- P/E (TTM): 10.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.1x
- FCF yield: 14.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| TRN.LTrainline PLC | 822.0 m | 10.5 | 32.8% | 17.6% | +2.4% | −15% / −30% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TRN.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.17 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 2.08 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 3.13 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 1.09 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 2.18 Total return 9% · Per year 3% | 3.62 Total return 81% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 1.02 Total return -49% · Per year -13% | 2.29 Total return 14% · Per year 3% | 4.17 Total return 108% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 0.54
- Net margin± 0.38
- Annual revenue growth± 0.32
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Trainline is an online platform selling rail and coach tickets across the UK, Europe and to business clients. In fiscal 2026 net ticket sales reached £6,319 million and operating profit rose 43%, making the company relevant as European rail opens to new carriers.
SWOT
Strengths
- The mobile App handles nearly all UK transactions and is seen as a central channel for customers.
- The company has a broad rail supply network and a large base of active users.
- Business travel and B2B distribution are growing fast and diversifying revenue.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends on commissions, and the commission cut limits growth.
- Net debt has risen due to share buybacks and the repayment of a bond.
- The International Consumer segment still loses money at adjusted EBITDA level.
Opportunities
- European market liberalisation could bring new operators and routes onto the platform.
- Ancillary services such as insurance and hotels could raise revenue per transaction.
- B2B expansion in Europe could attract new travel agents and business clients.
Threats
- Rail operators may favour their own channels and limit access for third-party platforms.
- Regulation and disputes over compensation could change the revenue model.
- Lower fares on new routes could reduce the average value of transactions.
Risks
- Dependence on commissionshigh
Revenue depends on commissions from ticket sales, and changes in commission rates can quickly reduce margins.
- Relationship with rail operatorshigh
Operators can change distribution terms or favour their own channels.
- Indebtednessmedium
Higher net debt could limit financial flexibility if cash flow declines.
- Competition in Europemedium
New operators can attract customers directly, reducing the platform's share on certain routes.
- Regulation and litigationlow
The regulatory framework and disputes over compensation could create unexpected costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If European rail expansion continues, the platform could benefit from more supply and new customers.
- Rapid growth in B2B and business travel could diversify the company's revenue.
- Efficient cost management has lifted EBITDA margin, which could support profitability.
What would break the thesis
- Commission cuts and operator pressure could limit revenue growth over the medium term.
- Rising net debt could restrict the company's capacity to fund new investment.
- If rail operators expand direct channels, the platform's reliance on intermediation could fall.
What to watch
- Development of UK net ticket sales after the commission cut2027
- Breakeven of the International Consumer segment2027
- Level of net debt and leverage rationext 10-K
- Growth of B2B Distribution and business travel2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Trainline earns mainly commissions on rail and coach ticket sales, calculated as a percentage of transaction value, plus ancillary income from insurance, hotels and advertising. Its mobile App handles most UK transactions, which has made it the main purchase channel for tickets. In fiscal 2026 revenue was £453 million and adjusted EBITDA £177 million, up 11%.
The company runs three segments: UK Consumer, International Consumer and Trainline Solutions, which offers white-label and B2B distribution to travel agents and transport firms. The model depends on transaction volume and on adding supply from new carriers, so sales can grow without relying on one rail operator.
Recently the company invested in disruption support features, digital railcards and ancillary products to increase transaction frequency. The balance sheet has come under pressure from repaying a convertible bond and share buybacks, and net debt reached £170 million.
Segments
International Consumer
Net ticket sales were £1,104 million, up 5% reported, with growth of 9% across South-East France and Spain. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to £(11) million, and the company expects breakeven next year.
Trainline Solutions
Net ticket sales grew 14% past £1 billion, with B2B Distribution up 36%. Business travel represents over 50% of the segment's sales.
Market context
European rail is gradually liberalising and new operators such as Trenitalia are expanding on high-speed routes. Trainline says Trenitalia's expansion cut average Paris-Marseille fares by 27%, which could stimulate demand if passenger volumes grow.
In the UK the company is a leader in app-based rail ticket sales, but it depends on operator decisions and the commission structure. Revenue growth depends on the success of ancillary services and the business segment.
Trends
- European rail liberalisationtailwind
New operators enter high-speed routes, which can widen the supply available on the platform and attract new customers.
- AI-based disruption featurestailwind
AI disruption tools and the travel assistant could increase how often customers use the app.
- Commission and distribution pressureheadwind
The UK commission cut and operators' self-preferencing of their own channels can limit revenue growth.
- Financing costs and debtmixed
Higher debt used for buybacks and bond repayment could add pressure on cash flow if interest rates stay high.
Competitive position
Trainline competes with rail operators' own websites and apps, which tend to promote their own channels and offer features such as automated Delay Repay. Competition also comes from travel agents and platforms that distribute tickets.
In Europe, new operators could draw customers to direct channels and reduce reliance on intermediaries. The company responds by widening supply and building B2B services, but results depend on its position in each market.
- National rail operators (direct channels)
Sell tickets directly through their own sites and apps and can offer exclusive features such as automated delay compensation.
- Trenitalia
New operator on South-East France high-speed routes that is expanding services and influencing fares.
- Travel agents and travel platforms
Distribute train tickets to business clients, competing with the company's B2B services.
- Search engines and comparison platforms
Change how customers reach booking sites and affect traffic for foreign travel sales.
News & filings
In the press
- Trainline, Virgin Atlantic and Red Driving School investigated over hidden ticket feesThe Guardian World · 19 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202529 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-02-28 (ESEF) · SEC / Trainline plc · 28 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.