olivLaw · European equity research
Whitbread PLC WTB.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B1KJJ408 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Whitbread operates Premier Inn, the largest hotel chain in the UK, with a market-leading position and growing presence in Germany. Its New Five-Year Plan focuses capital on hotels and the exit of branded restaurants in an uncertain economic setting. Statutory revenue was £2,920m in fiscal 2025/26.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Whitbread PLC (WTB.L) stock was 28.35 GBP (+0.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.9 bn GBP, P/E 23.2 on diluted EPS of 1.22 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.45%, beta 0.61, 52-week range 22.34–28.73 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 74.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 24.43 – 28.60
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 15.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.87 / 24.67
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.94 / 0.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.1% | −0.6% | +11.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.1% | −4.2% | +16.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +22.1% | +4.3% | +17.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.2% | +7.5% | +3.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.4% | +9.9% | −11.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −13.9% | +49.8% | −63.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −17.3% | +42.8% | −60.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 19.1, median 20.2, max 21.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.1% |
| Net income | 253.7 m | 212.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −16.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.41 | 1.22 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −12.9% |
| net % | 8.7% | 7.3% |
| Free cash flow | 295.3 m | 94.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 26 Feb 2026
- Cash
- 233.7 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 943.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- 709.3 m GBP
- Equity
- 3.1 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 9.6 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.30x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 6.6%
- ROA
- 2.2%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 514.0 m | 464.2 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 188.5 m | 200.3 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 367.8 m | 298.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 114.1 m | 85.5 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 253.7 m | 212.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.41 | 1.22 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.99 | 0.98 | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 909.0 m | 233.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 127.1 m | 136.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 17.1 m | 11.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.9 bn | 9.6 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 450.0 m | 0 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 942.4 m | 943.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 889.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.6 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 179.3 m | 172.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 761.7 m | 760.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 466.4 m | 666.1 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 295.3 m ≈ | 94.6 m ≈ | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -362.4 m | -393.3 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -186.1 m | -1.0 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 178.1 m | 168.8 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.9 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.6% | 29 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.3% | 43 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 44.4% | 21 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.2x | 17 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.9% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.4% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 178.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns30/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
WHITBREAD PLC (WTB.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-02-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.9 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth -0.1%; net margin 7.3%; ROE 6.6%.
The estimated value range is 9.59–14.71 GBP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.62 GBP, the price of 28.35 GBP leaves a potential of -59.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -144.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 8.6%
- FCF conversion: 44.4%
- Interest coverage: 2.3x
- P/E (TTM): 23.2x
- FCF yield: 1.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 178.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| WTB.LWhitbread PLC | 4.9 bn | 23.2 | 6.6% | 7.3% | −0.1% | +14% / −8% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WTB.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.11 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 28.54 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 43.08 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 14.23 Total return -42% · Per year -17% | 28.51 Total return 11% · Per year 4% | 47.44 Total return 81% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 12.58 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 28.48 Total return 18% · Per year 3% | 52.25 Total return 107% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 7.13
- Net margin± 4.99
- Annual revenue growth± 4.28
- Annual dilution± 0.42
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Whitbread operates Premier Inn, the largest hotel chain in the UK, with a market-leading position and growing presence in Germany. Its New Five-Year Plan focuses capital on hotels and the exit of branded restaurants in an uncertain economic setting. Statutory revenue was £2,920m in fiscal 2025/26 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Premier Inn brand has high recognition and a market-leading position in the UK, supported by a strong commercial and cost programme 1.
- The vertically integrated model and ownership of part of the property base give financial flexibility and the ability to fund growth 1.
- Efficiency gains offset inflationary pressures and supported adjusted margins in fiscal 2025/26 1.
Weaknesses
- The restructuring of food and beverage generated impairment and reduced restaurant revenue, which weighed on the statutory result 1.
- Profitability in Germany was reached late and remains sensitive to local margins and costs 1.
- Reliance on one main brand makes the company vulnerable to damage to reputation or negative press 1.
Opportunities
Threats
- Fiscal pressure and tax increases could raise costs and limit demand in the hospitality sector 1.
- Economic and geopolitical uncertainty could reduce travel demand and consumer confidence 1.
- Changes in distribution, including AI-led search, could reduce the effectiveness of the company's own channels 1.
Risks
- Economic uncertaintyhigh
The UK and German economic outlook is uncertain, which could reduce hotel demand and consumer confidence 1.
- Rising operating costshigh
Fiscal pressure, inflation and energy costs could raise the cost base if efficiencies do not cover them 1.
- Impact of food and beverage transformationmedium
Changes in the food offer could affect brand perception and revenue per room if uncertainty persists 1.
- Cyber and data securitymedium
Cyber-attacks and data breaches could cause revenue losses, fines and loss of customer trust 1.
- Delivery of change programmesmedium
Difficulty delivering several transformation programmes at once could delay benefits and disrupt operations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If room supply in the UK stays limited, Premier Inn could gain market share and maintain a stable price premium 1.
- If property recycling and lower investment generate higher returns, the company could increase free cash flow available to shareholders 1.
- If Germany continues to grow, profitability could rise significantly from current levels 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Progress of the AGP extension and exit from restaurants2026/27
- Germany results and progress toward 18,000 rooms2027
- Delivery of £250m of cost efficiencies2027
- Property recycling and free cash flow generationnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Whitbread PLC operates Premier Inn, a budget hotel chain with a vertically integrated model that includes property ownership, hotel operations and food and beverage. The 2025/26 annual report shows statutory revenue of £2,920m and adjusted EBITDAR up to £1,074m 1. The company announces a new five-year plan that reduces capital intensity and focuses on higher-returning extensions 1.
UK and Ireland activity forms the core of the group, with about 850 open hotels and a 12% share of UK rooms 1. Germany is the second growth market, where the group reached profitability in fiscal 2025/26 1. The strategy is to become a pure-play hotel business by exiting branded restaurants and recycling property into growth projects 1.
The company kept costs under control through efficiency programmes while continuing to return cash to shareholders through buy-backs and dividends 1. The new plan provides for both new rooms and property sales, aimed at funding growth and keeping leverage below the set threshold 1.
Segments
United Kingdom
Premier Inn in the UK and Ireland is the main revenue engine of the group. Open rooms could reach at least 96,000 by 2030/31, with a RevPAR premium of £5.88 over the midscale and economy market 1.
Germany
The German business reached profitability in fiscal 2025/26 with adjusted profit of £2m 1. The expansion plan targets 18,000 open rooms by 2030/31 and double-digit returns on capital in the open estate 1.
Restaurants and food and beverage
The company is transforming food and beverage in its hotels by exiting branded restaurants and replacing them with an integrated offer. The process has generated restaurant sales and involved impairment, which could reduce food and beverage revenue in the short term 1.
Market context
The UK hotel market has about 735,000 rooms, and total supply is still below pre-pandemic levels until at least 2028, according to the company's analysis 1. Branded budget chains are gaining share from independent hotels, which fell by 11% between 2019 and 2025 1.
Hotel demand depends on economic growth, but fiscal pressure and cost inflation remain important risks for the whole sector. The company believes the budget segment could hold up better in slowdowns as guests trade down to cheaper alternatives 1.
Trends
- Decline of independent hotelstailwind
Independent hotels are declining at an accelerated pace, which could favour branded budget chains and Premier Inn's market share 1.
- Limited room supplytailwind
UK hotel supply remains below pre-pandemic levels, which could support rates and occupancy 1.
- Fiscal and cost pressuresheadwind
Higher taxes, the national living wage and business rates raise operating costs, which could compress margins if efficiencies do not offset them 1.
- Digitalisation and AI-led distributionmixed
Online booking platforms and AI-led search could reduce the effectiveness of the current distribution strategy, but also create chances to improve the guest experience 1.
Competitive position
Premier Inn faces competition from other budget and midscale hotel operators in the UK and Germany. The company shows it can maintain its RevPAR premium thanks to its strong brand and commercial programme, but aggressive competitors could affect market share 1.
Distribution competition is growing, as online travel agents and specialist platforms gain influence over bookings. The company acknowledges this could reduce the efficiency of its own channels and increase pressure on rates 1.
- Budget hotel operators, independent and chain
Direct competitors in the budget and midscale segment in the UK and Germany, from whom the company has gained market share in recent years 1.
- Independent hotels
A segment in accelerated decline that loses customers to branded chains, but remains part of the total market 1.
- Online booking platforms
Agents and platforms that influence distribution and commission costs, which the company sees as a risk to its current sales strategy 1.
- Local food and beverage operators
Local food competitors that could win customers if the hotels' food offer becomes less attractive 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Premier Inn Owner Fights Activist Bid as Rising Costs Squeeze ProfitSkift · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Whitbread CEO Says UK Tax Hikes Mean New Hotels ScrappedBloomberg Markets · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Whitbread initiates 180-room hotel development in Vauxhall, LondonYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Barry Whitbread, who led Lions to historic 1998 Tiger Cup, dies aged 77CNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-02-26 (ESEF) · SEC / Whitbread PLC · 26 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.