olivLaw · European equity research
ZE PAK Spółka Akcyjna ZEP.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLZEPAK00012 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
ZE PAK is a Polish electricity producer whose profile is gradually shifting from lignite at Pątnów and Tomisławice toward lower-emission sources such as gas, solar and wind. The shift matters now because group CO2 emissions fell sharply between 2022 and 2023 as coal units approach closure.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ZE PAK Spółka Akcyjna (ZEP.WA) stock was 18.02 PLN (−0.44% on the day), with market capitalisation 915.9 m PLN, P/E 1.2 on diluted EPS of 14.66 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.40, 52-week range 16.00–22.15 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 17.70 – 20.16
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 18.31 / 18.18
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / 0.12
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.3% | −0.6% | +4.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.3% | −4.2% | +2.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.8% | +4.3% | −7.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.6% | +7.5% | −14.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −17.5% | +9.9% | −27.4 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −12.9% | +49.8% | −62.8 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −4.1% | +42.8% | −47.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 1.5, median 3.6, max 5.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.8% | +13.3% |
| Net income | -317.0 m | 203.3 m | 745.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +266.5% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 4.00 | 14.66 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +266.5% |
| net % | -12.9% | 7.4% | 24.0% |
| Free cash flow | -403.2 m | -98.5 m | -897.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 534.0 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 1.9 bn PLN
- Total assets
- 3.6 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.82x
- ROE
- 47.7%
- ROA
- 18.3%
- FCF margin
- -28.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | -441.7 m | 355.3 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | -512.6 m | 274.4 m | 689.5 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 17.7 m | 25.0 m | 53.1 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -518.5 m | 276.2 m | 682.4 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | -201.1 m | 91.4 m | 124.0 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Net income | -317.0 m | 203.3 m | 745.1 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 4.00 | 14.66 | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | esef· 08 May 2024derived |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 506.7 m | 1.5 bn | 534.0 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | 1.4 bn | 815.4 m | 563.4 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 74.2 m | 121.0 m | 14.8 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 330.3 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 14.1 m | 150.3 m | 0 | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.4 m | 9.0 m | 2.8 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 3.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 524.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 50.8 m | 50.8 m | esef· 08 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.6 m | 503.3 m | -321.8 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Capex | 409.7 m | 601.7 m | 575.9 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | -403.2 m ≈ | -98.5 m ≈ | -897.8 m ≈ | esef· 08 May 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -391.2 m | -651.2 m | -488.7 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | 393.5 m | 1.1 bn | -1.0 m | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 08 May 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 915.9 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 24.0% | 90 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -120.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 13.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 85 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 1.2x | 89 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -98.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality45/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ZE PAK Spółka Akcyjna (ZEP.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth 13.3%; net margin 24.0%; ROE 56.6%.
The estimated value range is 93.42–257.81 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 162.18 PLN, the price of 18.02 PLN leaves a potential of 800.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 88.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 24.0%
- Interest coverage: 13.0x
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- P/E (TTM): 1.2x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -120.5%
- FCF yield: -98.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| ZEP.WAZE PAK Spółka Akcyjna | 915.9 m | 1.2 | 56.6% | 24.0% | +13.3% | −13% / −18% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ZEP.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 11.59 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 20.42 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 30.65 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 13.33 Total return -26% · Per year -10% | 26.22 Total return 45% · Per year 13% | 42.90 Total return 138% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 15.33 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 33.66 Total return 87% · Per year 13% | 60.04 Total return 233% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 6.55
- Net margin± 4.59
- Annual revenue growth± 3.47
- Annual dilution± 0.39
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ZE PAK is a Polish electricity producer whose profile is gradually shifting from lignite at Pątnów and Tomisławice toward lower-emission sources such as gas, solar and wind. The shift matters now because group CO2 emissions fell sharply between 2022 and 2023 as coal units approach closure 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Access to own brown coal reserves and mining integrated with generation.
- Portfolio of wind and offshore stakes that brings exposure to lower-emission power.
- Long-term capacity contract for the Adamów gas project.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on lignite, a high-emission fuel, exposes the group to CO2 allowance costs.
- Scheduled closure of coal units reduces existing generation capacity.
- Reclamation obligations and provisions for mines and ash sites add long-term financial burdens.
Opportunities
- Gas and solar projects could replace coal revenue as the transition advances.
- Growth of offshore wind in Poland could open new revenue streams through existing stakes.
- Possible green hydrogen production with partners could open new segments.
Threats
- Tighter EU regulation could make financing coal-related activity increasingly expensive.
- Volatile energy and CO2 prices could force additional collateral deposits.
- Delays in new projects could leave the group without timely replacement capacity.
Risks
- CO2 allowance costshigh
Emission-allowance prices directly affect lignite production costs and can raise compliance burdens.
- Decline of coal capacityhigh
Shutting the Pątnów units could reduce revenue before new sources are operational.
- Liquidity and collateralmedium
Volatility in energy and CO2 markets can require extra deposits, with liquidity strain possible in extreme cases.
- Reclamation obligationsmedium
Provisions for closing mines and ash sites depend on inflation and discount-rate assumptions that may be revised.
- Execution of new projectsmedium
The gas unit and solar farm depend on contractors and timelines that could slip.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the gas and solar projects enter operation on time, the group could keep capacity revenue after coal closure.
- Stakes in wind and offshore could provide a lower-emission revenue base that is more resilient to regulatory pressure.
- Compensation for climate-policy costs could support revenue during the transition period.
What would break the thesis
- If CO2 costs rise faster than energy revenue, lignite margins could shrink quickly.
- Delays in new projects could create a capacity gap after coal units close.
- Reclamation obligations and mine provisions could absorb significant financial resources.
What to watch
- Closure of the Pątnów lignite units2024-2025
- Execution of the Adamów CCGT unit2025
- Trend in emissions and CO2 costsnext annual report
- Progress of the Przykona solar farm2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The ZE PAK group, led by ZE PAK SA of Konin, produces electricity and heat mainly from lignite mined at its own coal fields. According to the 2023 annual report, the group includes numerous onshore wind companies and stakes in offshore projects and in PGE PAK Energia Jądrowa 1. The group also runs reclamation and environmental provisions linked to its mining activity 1.
The core activity is generating power from brown coal at the Pątnów plant, together with mining at the last active pit, Tomisławice. According to the financial statements, the group plans to stop the coal units by end-2024, except one 474 MW unit that could run until end-2025 1. A gas-fired CCGT project at Adamów, with a 17-year capacity contract, is also under way 1.
Beyond generation, the group holds minority stakes in measurement firms and in the ferroalloy producer Huta Łaziska SA 1. These stakes modestly diversify the portfolio, but generation and mining remain the core business.
Segments
Lignite power generation
The group's traditional segment, based on brown coal from Pątnów and Tomisławice. Emissions fell from 3 427 588 tonnes of CO2 in 2022 to 1 628 292 tonnes in 2023, reflecting the gradual exit from coal 1. The 474 MW unit could remain in operation until 2025 if needed 1.
Wind and offshore
Numerous onshore wind farm companies and stakes in offshore projects, for example with Ørsted Polska, appear in the group structure 1. These low-emission assets could offset the decline of lignite.
Gas and solar
The Adamów CCGT project won a capacity-market auction and is in execution, while a large solar farm in Przykona is in an advanced design phase 1.
Market context
Poland's power market still relies heavily on coal, and the group operates in a setting where CO2 allowance costs are rising and financing for high-emission generation is harder to obtain 1. Compensation mechanisms for climate-policy costs directly affect revenue, and the annual adjustment linked to these compensations was 33.12 million PLN for 2023 1.
The war in Ukraine increased volatility in energy and emission-allowance markets, which can create a need for additional collateral deposits 1. The shift to lower-emission sources is also driven by EU rules aiming at climate neutrality by 2050 1.
Trends
- Gradual coal phase-outmixed
Lignite units at Pątnów are to be shut by end-2024, except one that could run until 2025. This reduces emissions but also reduces coal-based revenue 1.
- Regulatory pressure on emissionsheadwind
EU climate-neutrality rules make financing high-emission activities harder and raise the cost of CO2 allowances 1.
- Low-emission projectstailwind
The Adamów gas unit, with a 17-year capacity contract, and the planned solar farm could support the group's transition 1.
- Energy market volatilityheadwind
The war in Ukraine generated large swings in energy and CO2 certificate markets, affecting collateral requirements 1.
Competitive position
The group competes in the Polish power market with other generators, especially those operating coal or gas plants. The available sources give no detailed information on competitor positions, so a fuller market analysis would need more data.
The group's edge is access to its own coal and experience in transition, but competition in renewables and gas means its position will depend on executing new projects 1.
- PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna
Leading Polish power producer with coal and renewable assets; cited as a market actor in Poland.
- Enea
Polish power producer and distributor present in the domestic market with coal plants and new projects.
- Tauron Polska Energia
Polish energy company with generation and distribution activities, a rival in the domestic market.
- Ørsted
Offshore wind developer and partner in some ZE PAK group structures in Poland.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202308 May 2024
- Annual report 202216 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ZE PAK Spółka Akcyjna · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.