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olivLaw · US equity research

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. APD

Industrial Inorganic Chemicals · SIC 2810 · Vertical: Industrial Inorganic Chemicals (SIC 2810)

318.87USD+1.89% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Air Products is one of the world's largest industrial gases companies, supplying gases, cryogenic equipment and large clean hydrogen projects. In 2026 the company is focusing on its core industrial gas business after exiting some large energy projects, which produced large GAAP losses in the third quarter but raised adjusted EPS guidance.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock was 318.87 USD (+1.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 71.0 bn USD, dividend yield 2.26%, beta 0.59, 52-week range 230.76–318.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.2 bn USD (+4.6% YoY), net income of -1.4 bn USD (−301.8% YoY), diluted EPS -6.47 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
71.0 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.22 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-0.07%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.26%
DPS 12m 7.20
Beta (2y)
0.59
Volatility (1y) 26%
52-week range
230.76318.87

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
73.3
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
278.76 – 324.89
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 15.3%
SMA 50 / 200
294.91 / 290.86
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
7.26 / 5.61
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.1%−1.1%+15.2 pp—
3 months+8.1%−0.5%+8.5 pp—
6 months+6.2%+4.4%+1.8 pp—
Year to date+29.1%+12.3%+16.8 pp—
1 year+32.4%+13.5%+18.9 pp+20.0%
3 years+8.8%+76.4%−67.7 pp+24.2%
5 years+3.1%+63.7%−60.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−13.0%
02 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−33.8%
13 Dec 2022 → 07 Feb 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
+0.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
3.2 bn USD
+4.6% YoY
Net income
-1.4 bn USD
−301.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
-6.47
−302.2% YoY
net / operating
-45.6% / -66.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue3.2 bn2.9 bn2.9 bn3.0 bn3.2 bn3.1 bn3.2 bn3.2 bn
Cost of revenue2.1 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.2 bn2.1 bn
Research & development22.1 m22.0 m22.9 m24.1 m27.3 m20.4 m21.6 m21.5 m
SG&A228.0 m242.4 m222.0 m222.6 m219.1 m228.7 m227.2 m219.1 m
Operating income2.4 bn643.6 m-2.3 bn790.6 m16.8 m734.5 m752.7 m-2.1 bn
Depreciation & amortisation380.8 m366.8 m383.6 m ≈401.0 m ≈412.8 m370.7 m375.0 m ≈385.4 m ≈
Interest expense49.7 m42.6 m42.2 m61.4 m67.8 m54.5 m49.5 m49.4 m
Pre-tax income2.5 bn790.5 m-2.2 bn890.8 m121.3 m850.8 m883.5 m-1.9 bn
Income tax538.4 m140.7 m-505.8 m159.6 m111.2 m159.4 m158.7 m-515.4 m
Net income1.9 bn617.4 m-1.7 bn713.8 m4.9 m678.2 m710.4 m-1.4 bn
Diluted EPS8.75 ≈2.77-7.773.200.02 ≈3.043.19-6.47
Operating cash flow—811.7 m328.1 m ≈855.8 m ≈—900.7 m1.1 bn ≈1.3 bn ≈
Capex2.1 bn2.1 bn1.9 bn ≈1.5 bn ≈1.5 bn1.3 bn1.1 bn ≈995.7 m ≈
Dividends paid393.5 m393.6 m393.8 m ≈398.3 m ≈398.4 m398.4 m398.6 m ≈403.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue8.9 bn8.9 bn8.9 bn10.3 bn12.7 bn12.6 bn12.1 bn12.0 bn
Revenue YoY+9.1%−0.1%−0.7%+16.6%+23.0%−0.8%−4.0%−0.5%
Net income1.5 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn3.8 bn-394.5 m
Net income YoY−50.1%+17.5%+7.2%+11.3%+7.5%+2.0%+66.4%−110.3%
Diluted EPS6.787.948.499.4310.1410.3317.18-1.77
Diluted EPS YoY−50.3%+17.1%+6.9%+11.1%+7.5%+1.9%+66.3%−110.3%
net %16.8%19.7%21.3%20.3%17.8%18.3%31.6%-3.3%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
1.9 bn USD
Financial debt
34.7 m USD
Net debt
-1.8 bn USD
Equity
17.3 bn USD
Total assets
41.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
1.38x
ROE
-2.2%
ROA
-1.0%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
12.6 bn
2024
12.1 bn
2025
12.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
8.8 bn
2024
8.2 bn
2025
8.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
3.8 bn ≈
2024
3.9 bn ≈
2025
3.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025derived

Research & development
2023
105.6 m
2024
100.2 m
2025
96.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

SG&A
2023
957.0 m
2024
942.4 m
2025
906.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
2.5 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
-877.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
3.9 bn ≈
2024
5.9 bn ≈
2025
687.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
177.5 m
2024
218.8 m
2025
214.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.9 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
-440.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
551.2 m
2024
944.9 m
2025
-94.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
2.3 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
-394.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
10.33
2024
17.18
2025
-1.77

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
222.7 m
2024
222.8 m
2025
222.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
6.87
2024
7.06
2025
7.14

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.6 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Receivables
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Inventories
2023
651.8 m
2024
766.0 m
2025
776.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
5.2 bn
2024
6.4 bn
2025
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
17.5 bn
2024
23.4 bn
2025
25.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
861.7 m
2024
905.1 m
2025
963.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
334.6 m
2024
311.6 m
2025
293.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Total assets
2023
32.0 bn
2024
39.6 bn
2025
41.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
259.5 m
2024
83.5 m
2025
34.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
16.3 bn
2024
20.9 bn
2025
23.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
15.7 bn
2024
18.7 bn
2025
17.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Capex
2023
4.6 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
7.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-119.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-110.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-110.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
32.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-853.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-2.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
Capital expenditure
4.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
55 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
147 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-59 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
71.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
70.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
5.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
5.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
73.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
5.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.63
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 23 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

318.87 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 71.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
71.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
5.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
73.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Jul 2026
verified 3135derived 190

Score by group

  • Valuation0
  • Balance sheet35
  • Quality32
  • Growth0
  • Returns32

Estimated value range

Low
59.41
USD per share
Mid
71.25
USD per share
High
98.12
USD per share
Price: 318.87 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -77.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -347.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.99 – 126.18 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA24.99 – 70.06 (Mid 34.88)
    5 companies used · median multiple 7.3x · quartiles 5.0x – 15.5x
    LIN, LXFR, LXU, TROX, VHI
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)93.83 – 126.18 (Mid 107.63)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Industrial Inorganic Chemicals (SIC 2810)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 23/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-3.1%14 (vs peers)17%
Net margin · Quality-0.4%63 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.8%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.9x60 (vs peers)17%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-2.7x0 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x24 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation73.8x0 (vs peers)17%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.3%32 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial32/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC. (APD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -0.5%; net margin -0.4%; ROE -0.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.9x.

The estimated value range is 59.41–98.12 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 71.25 USD, the price of 318.87 USD leaves a potential of -77.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -347.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 23/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns, valuation. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -3.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.8%
  • Interest coverage: -2.7x
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 73.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Industrial Inorganic Chemicals (SIC 2810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 34.9x
EV/EBITDA
73.8x
vertical median 7.3x
above median (+914.9%)
P/S
5.6x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+436.3%)
P/B
5.1x
vertical median 1.2x
above median (+331.2%)
ROE
-0.3%
vertical median -4.8%
above median
Net margin
-0.4%
vertical median -2.7%
above median
EBIT margin
-4.7%
vertical median 5.0%
below median (−194.8%)
Revenue YoY
-0.5%
vertical median -1.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.9x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−176.7%)
Dividend yield
2.3%
vertical median 2.6%
below median (−12.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LINLinde plc240.9 bn34.918.0%19.3%+3.0%+28% / +27%
APDAir Products And Chemicals, Inc.71.0 bn—-0.3%-0.4%−0.5%+32% / +9%
MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.2.0 bn—-4.1%-3.1%−2.2%+12% / +5%
KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.890.9 m—-13.7%-5.6%−1.5%+53% / −11%
LXULSB Industries, Inc.766.1 m17.18.7%7.0%+17.8%+19% / +24%
TROXTronox Holdings PLC566.9 m—-39.1%-18.0%−5.7%−14% / −72%
LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLC463.2 m76.32.7%1.7%−1.9%+38% / +110%
VHIValhi, Inc.430.8 m—-4.8%-2.4%−1.3%+20% / +12%
NLNli Holdings, Inc.359.9 m—-6.7%-15.8%+8.5%+30% / +44%
LTBRLightbridge Corporation172.9 m—-14.1%—unavailable−73% / +39%

1- and 3-year price returns: for APD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
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What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    Air Products is one of the world's largest industrial gases companies, supplying gases, cryogenic equipment and large clean hydrogen projects. In 2026 the company is focusing on its core industrial gas business after exiting some large energy projects, which produced large GAAP losses in the third quarter but raised adjusted EPS guidance.13

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Position as a global leader in industrial gases, with long-term on-site contracts and pipeline networks that give a cost advantage 1.
    • A long history of dividend increases, supported by cash flows from the core business 1.
    • A customer base diversified across industries and regions, with no single customer above a high share of sales 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Large past GAAP losses from cancelled energy projects that weighed on reported results 23.
    • Dependence on helium volumes, which fell and pressured results 1.
    • High currency exposure, because most revenue comes from outside the United States 1.

    Opportunities

    • New gas supply projects for semiconductor fabs, such as the Taiwan agreement 3.
    • If the NEOM project operates and is integrated into partners' distribution chains, it could open new revenue streams 3.
    • Lower capital spending could free cash for traditional projects with better returns 3.

    Threats

    • Weak demand for clean hydrogen and uncertain climate policy, which could slow or cancel projects 1.
    • Inflationary pressures and macroeconomic volatility affecting fixed costs and industrial demand 23.
    • Geopolitical and regulatory risks in emerging markets where the company has large investments 1.

    Risks

    • Asset impairments and project losseshigh

      Cancelling energy projects produced large losses; if further project exits occur, reported results could remain volatile 23.

    • Currency riskmedium

      Revenue from outside the home market is translated into dollars, and exchange rates can change reported results 1.

    • Climate regulation riskmedium

      Rules on greenhouse gas emissions can raise energy and production costs, or reduce demand for some products 1.

    • Large project execution riskhigh

      Major projects face delays, cost overruns and financing difficulties, and the company acknowledges these could damage its reputation 1.

    • Concentration in helium and refininglow

      Dependence on certain industries and helium volumes can amplify the effect of a fall in demand 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If capital discipline, on-site volume growth and better pricing hold, adjusted profit could keep growing year on year 3.
    • Strong adjusted EPS guidance in the third quarter shows the core business can stay profitable despite macroeconomic uncertainty 3.
    • Long-term on-site contracts and pipeline networks could provide predictable revenue and a barrier to competitors 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Large losses from cancelled projects show that clean hydrogen investments carried major risks, and further exits could follow 23.
    • If helium demand and fixed-cost inflation persist, margins could stay under pressure 12.
    • High exposure to markets outside the United States and to geopolitical risks could affect results during trade tensions 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery of adjusted EPS guidance for the fourth quarterQ4 2026
    • Capital expenditure outturn against the revised guidancefiscal 2026
    • Start-up of the NEOM project and first green ammonia deliveries2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., founded in 1940, produces and sells industrial gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, argon, hydrogen and helium, together with air separation and cryogenic equipment. Sales for fiscal 2025 were 12.0 billion dollars 1. The company operates in about 50 countries and regions, and nearly 60% of sales come from outside the United States 1.

    In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Air Products announced a long-term agreement to build and operate air separation units for a semiconductor manufacturer in Taiwan, showing a shift back to its core 3. It decided not to proceed with the Louisiana Clean Energy Complex and discontinued a liquid hydrogen facility in Arizona, while keeping the NEOM project in Saudi Arabia 3.

    Market context

    The industrial gas market is dominated by three global competitors, and demand depends on refining, chemicals, metals and electronics 1. Clean hydrogen remains an uncertain market, since demand for energy projects has fallen below expectations 1. If demand from electronics and on-site customers continues, it could support growth in the core business.

    In the near term the helium market has been weak, and the company has flagged cost pressure and fixed-cost inflation 12. Energy costs are largely passed through to customers via pricing formulas, which limits the impact of natural gas volatility 1.

    Trends

    • Refocus on core industrial gasestailwind

      Management has cancelled or reduced large energy transition projects and is directing capital toward traditional projects with clear returns 13. If capital discipline holds, it could lower debt and capital spending.

    • Electronics and semiconductor demandtailwind

      The Taiwan air separation agreement points to gas demand from chip fabrication plants 3. Growth in this demand could support long-term on-site volumes.

    • Weaker demand for clean hydrogenheadwind

      The clean energy market has not developed as expected, and several projects have been stopped or scaled back 13. If climate policies weaken, demand for green hydrogen could stay low.

    • Cost and helium pressuresmixed

      The company cites fixed-cost inflation and helium market difficulties that affect volumes and margins 12. These pressures may be partly offset by productivity gains and better pricing.

    Competitive position

    Air Products competes with Air Liquide S.A., Linde plc and Messer Group GmbH, as well as regional competitors 1. Competition is based on price, supply reliability and the development of new applications, and the company's advantage lies in its pipeline networks where it operates 1.

    In equipment, competition is based on plant efficiency, technological performance and schedule delivery, and the company has indicated that it no longer pursues all large projects in this area 13.

    • Linde plcLIN

      Global industrial gas competitor named in the annual report, with presence in the Americas, Europe and Asia.

    • Air Liquide S.A.

      Global industrial gas competitor named in the annual report, listed in France and without a confirmed US ticker.

    • Messer Group GmbH

      Global industrial gas competitor named in the source, active in Europe and other regions, without a US listing.

    • Regional competitors

      Local gas producers that compete in certain markets, referred to generically in the annual report.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 19 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. · 20 Nov 2025
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.