olivLaw · US equity research
Algoma Steel Group Inc. ASTL
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · SIC 3312 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312)
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canadian steel producer that files annual reports with the SEC on Form 40-F. The report for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 shows that the financial statements and internal control over financial reporting were audited by Deloitte LLP with a favourable opinion. The company must maintain this reporting discipline against the backdrop of a cyclical industrial sector.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) stock was 4.99 USD (−5.31% on the day), with beta 1.63, 52-week range 3.28–5.80 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.82 – 5.40
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.74 · band width 34.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.42 / 4.46
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.22 / 0.16
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.7% | −1.1% | +15.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +25.7% | −0.5% | +26.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.2% | +4.4% | −8.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.7% | +12.3% | +9.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +25.4% | +13.5% | +11.8 pp | +14.8% |
| 3 years | −31.3% | +76.4% | −107.7 pp | +30.2% |
| 5 years | −56.1% | +63.7% | −119.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −8.3% | +112.0% | −27.0% | +0.6% | −25.4% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -984.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -2.46 | -1.06 | 7.75 | 1.71 | 0.70 | -9.06 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −77.9% | −59.1% | −1,394.3% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -47.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | -73.4 m | 1.1 bn | -193.8 m | -198.5 m | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 77.5 m CAD
- Financial debt
- unavailable CAD
- Net debt
- unavailable CAD
- Equity
- 491.1 m CAD
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn CAD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.18x
- ROE
- -98.8%
- ROA
- -41.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (CAD)
Margins
Income statement · CAD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | -664.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived |
| Operating income | -137.0 m | 84.8 m | 1.4 bn | 290.5 m | 167.3 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 63.8 m | 68.5 m | 48.6 m | 17.9 m | 25.6 m | 72.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -180.2 m | -76.1 m | 1.2 bn | 376.1 m | 144.9 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -4.3 m | 0 | 298.9 m | 77.6 m | 39.7 m | -315.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | -984.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.46 | -1.06 | 7.75 | 1.71 | 0.70 | -9.06 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 71.8 k | 71.8 k | 111.5 m | 147.0 m | 133 | 109 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · CAD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 265.0 m | 21.2 m | 915.3 m | 247.4 m | 97.9 m | 77.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 415.3 m | 480.0 m | 722.7 m | 807.8 m | 569.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 842.8 m | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 1.5 m | 1.1 m | 900.0 k | 700.0 k | 300.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 1.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 348.6 m | 537.5 m | 343.4 m | 428.5 m | 497.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 993.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 299.9 m | 173.8 m | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 491.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 148.0 m | 103.6 m | 104.1 m | 104.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · CAD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -4.7 m | 8.1 m | 1.3 bn | 177.3 m | 294.9 m | -66.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 81.5 m | 172.1 m | 371.1 m | 493.4 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Jun 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | — | -73.4 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | -193.8 m ≈ | -198.5 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Jun 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -115.1 m | -72.9 m | -165.7 m | -371.1 m | -490.1 m | -312.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 246.7 m | -167.4 m | -198.7 m | -532.0 m | 44.4 m | 200.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 9.3 m | 30.7 m | 27.9 m | 14.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
25% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -47.2% | 0 (vs peers) | 25% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -18.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -18.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC. (ASTL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn CAD in 2025; YoY growth -25.4%; net margin -47.2%; ROE -98.5%.
The estimated value range is 1.38–1.71 CAD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.2x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -47.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -18.2%
- Interest coverage: -18.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXTernium S.A. | 97.5 bn | 221.1 | 3.6% | 2.7% | −11.6% | +32% / +23% |
| NUENucor Corp | 60.8 bn | 35.6 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +5.7% | +68% / +58% |
| TSTenaris SA | 60.6 bn | 31.4 | 11.6% | 16.1% | −4.3% | +41% / +63% |
| MTArcelorMittal | 46.0 bn | 14.7 | 6.1% | 5.1% | −1.7% | +40% / +140% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | 34.1 bn | 17.7 | 20.8% | 8.8% | +3.6% | +43% / +102% |
| CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation | 13.8 bn | 24.6 | 27.8% | 17.9% | +8.6% | −12% / +294% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | 6.8 bn | 10.6 | 14.8% | 7.0% | +20.5% | −2% / +37% |
| SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc. | 823.3 m | — | -8.5% | -2.9% | −5.1% | +49% / +4% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | 650.2 m | 30.8 | 3.4% | 1.9% | +6.9% | −7% / −22% |
| TWITitan International, Inc. | 303.7 m | — | -22.9% | -5.7% | −0.9% | −42% / −64% |
| ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc. | — | — | -98.5% | -47.2% | −25.4% | +25% / −31% |
| SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. | — | — | 19.2% | 31.2% | −18.2% | −8% / −15% |
| PKXPosco Holdings Inc. | — | — | 2.1% | 1.5% | −4.7% | −8% / −48% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ASTL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026).
In brief
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canadian steel producer that files annual reports with the SEC on Form 40-F. The report for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 shows that the financial statements and internal control over financial reporting were audited by Deloitte LLP with a favourable opinion. The company must maintain this reporting discipline against the backdrop of a cyclical industrial sector.1
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Strengthening reporting discipline could attract investors who demand high transparency.1
- If control processes remain stable, the company could maintain a solid reporting profile in the coming years.1
- The absence of hidden commitments could ease access to financing if markets view the situation favourably.1
Risks
- Comparability of periodsmedium
The change of fiscal year-end may complicate analysis of trends over several years.1
- Cyclical demandhigh
As a steel producer, the company could be affected if demand from consuming industries falls.1
- Reliance on attached documentsmedium
Operational and financial details sit in the exhibits, and an investor reading only the main report could miss relevant risks.1
- Effectiveness of internal controllow
Internal control is effective at present, but a future deficiency could reduce confidence in the financial statements.1
- Compliance costslow
SEC, Nasdaq and IFRS requirements could generate additional reporting costs in the future.1
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If control processes remain effective, the company could give investors credible and well-verified financial information.1
- The absence of off-balance sheet commitments could indicate more limited exposure to hidden risks.1
- Governance with an independent audit committee and an enforced code of conduct could support long-term confidence.1
What to watch
- Detailed financial results for fiscal 2025 in the MD&A2026
- Updates on steel demand and production capacity in the AIFnext 10-K
- Any new deficiencies in internal control over financial reporting2026
- Any new off-balance sheet commitment reported in the following yearnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026).
The business
According to the annual report, Algoma Steel Group Inc. presents its activity through three documents attached as exhibits: the annual information form (AIF), management's discussion and analysis (MD&A) and the consolidated financial statements. These attachments contain the operational and financial details that the source does not reproduce in this extract.1 The company changed its fiscal year-end from 31 March to 31 December, so the comparison period is a nine-month period ended 31 December 2024.1 The independent auditor is Deloitte LLP, whose report is dated 11 March 2026.1 The chief executive officer signed the report dated 11 March 2026.1 These elements define the company's reporting structure for investors.1
The governance structure includes an audit committee of five independent members, all considered financially literate under Rule 10A-3 and Nasdaq standards.1 The board determined that one audit committee member is an audit committee financial expert within the meaning of the law, without this status creating additional liabilities.1 The company applies a written code of conduct, with no waivers granted in fiscal 2025.1 These practices reflect formal governance that supports confidence in the reported information.1
In terms of reporting, Algoma Steel stated that it had no off-balance sheet commitments with a material effect on its financial condition in 2025.1 Internal control over financial reporting was considered effective as of 31 December 2025, with no material changes in the period covered.1 These conclusions are essential for assessing the quality of information available to the public.1
Segments
Financial reporting documents
The 40-F report incorporates as exhibits the annual information form (AIF), management's discussion and analysis (MD&A) and the audited financial statements, each with a distinct role for investors.1 The documents cover fiscal 2025 and the comparative nine-month period of 2024.1 The source does not provide product-segment sales figures in this extract.1
Market context
The source provided does not describe the size of the steel market or the company's market share. Algoma Steel is listed on Nasdaq, as indicated by the report's references to Nasdaq standards.1 This means US investors can compare the company with other listed producers, but market data is absent from this document.1 A complete analysis would require data from the MD&A and AIF exhibits.1
The report contains no steel prices, shipment volumes or demand indicators from the construction or automotive industries. For this reason, conclusions about market position remain limited to the compliance information in the 40-F.1 A fuller market framework could be built if the attached documents are consulted.1
Trends
- Change of fiscal year-endmixed
The company moved from a 31 March year-end to 31 December, so periods are not directly comparable with earlier reports.1 Investors might need to adjust comparisons if they analyse performance across several years.1
- Effective internal controltailwind
Management and the auditor concluded that internal control over financial reporting was effective at the end of 2025.1 This supports the credibility of the information, if the same processes are maintained.1
- Off-balance sheet commitmentstailwind
The company stated that it has no commitments that could significantly affect liquidity or capital resources, which reduces the risk of hidden surprises.1
- Cyclicality of the steel sectorheadwind
The source does not directly describe sector cyclicality, but the company's SIC classification as a steel producer suggests sensitivity to demand, which could affect results if demand falls.1
Competitive position
The source does not identify the company's direct competitors. Algoma Steel operates in the steel sector, where competition is usually defined by cost, capacity and access to raw materials, but this information does not appear in the available extract.1 Comparison with other producers requires the MD&A and AIF documents.1
Without market-share data, competition can only be assessed through the company's reporting structure and its Nasdaq listing.1 Firmer conclusions would require information from the company's exhibits.1
- US-listed steel producers
The source does not name competitors, so the list cannot be completed without additional data.
- Other North American producers
The source does not identify competing firms by name, so no tickers can be assigned.
- Raw material suppliers
Supplier relationships are not detailed in the extract provided.
- Steel importers
Import competition is not described in the available source.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Jun 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 40-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Algoma Steel Group Inc. · 12 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.