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olivLaw · US equity research

Barfresh Food Group Inc. BRFH

Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties · SIC 2030 · Vertical: Food products (SIC 203x)

0.54USD+0.19% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Barfresh Food Group makes and distributes ready-to-drink and ready-to-blend frozen beverages and food, mainly for the US school meal market. The company acquired Arps Dairy in October 2025, and revenue reached 14.208 million USD in fiscal 2025, but production ramp-up at the existing plant was slower than planned, prompting a revision of 2026 guidance.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Barfresh Food Group Inc. (BRFH) stock was 0.54 USD (+0.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.8 m USD, beta 0.33, 52-week range 0.54–3.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.7 m USD (+189.7% YoY), net income of -1.9 m USD, diluted EPS -0.12 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
8.8 m USD
shares as of 11 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.23 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-42.11%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.33
Volatility (1y) 71%
52-week range
0.543.50

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
28.8
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.46 – 0.77
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 49.6%
SMA 50 / 200
0.90 / 2.03
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.11 / -0.12
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−37.1%−1.1%−36.0 pp—
3 months−69.4%−0.5%−69.0 pp—
6 months−77.5%+4.4%−81.9 pp—
Year to date−81.5%+12.3%−93.9 pp—
1 year−82.8%+13.5%−96.4 pp−4.2%
3 years−65.3%+76.4%−141.7 pp−32.4%
5 years−87.8%+63.7%−151.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−84.6%
16 Dec 2025 → 03 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−93.2%
17 Mar 2022 → 03 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−34.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
4.7 m USD
+189.7% YoY
Net income
-1.9 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.12
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-39.5% / -32.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue3.6 m2.8 m2.9 m1.6 m4.2 m5.4 m5.6 m4.7 m
Cost of revenue2.4 m2.1 m2.0 m1.1 m2.7 m5.3 m4.6 m4.9 m
Gross profit1.3 m730.0 k900.0 k506.0 k1.6 m156.0 k1.0 m-150.0 k
Research & development52.0 k33.0 k19.0 k31.0 k33.0 k46.0 k24.0 k37.0 k
Operating income-500.0 k-824.0 k-738.0 k-868.0 k-260.0 k-1.6 m-436.0 k-1.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation65.0 k66.0 k74.0 k67.0 k27.0 k70.0 k72.0 k12.0 k
Interest expense13.0 k28.0 k23.0 k12.0 k30.0 k152.0 k23.0 k77.0 k
Net income-513.0 k-852.0 k-761.0 k-880.0 k-290.0 k-763.0 k-661.0 k-1.9 m
Diluted EPS-0.03-0.06 ≈-0.05-0.06-0.02-0.05 ≈-0.04-0.12
Operating cash flow5.0 k ≈-685.0 k-506.0 k-1.1 m ≈-598.0 k ≈507.0 k-2.4 m-669.0 k ≈
Capex57.0 k ≈-8.0 k28.0 k66.0 k ≈-52.0 k ≈81.0 k646.0 k317.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year201820192020⚠ 20212022202320242025
Revenue4.2 m4.3 m2.6 m6.7 m9.2 m8.1 m10.7 m14.2 m
Revenue YoY+112.1%+1.7%−40.4%—+36.7%−11.3%+31.9%+32.6%
Net income-7.3 m-5.6 m-4.2 m-1.3 m-6.1 m-2.8 m-2.8 m-2.7 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailable-0.10-0.47-0.21-0.19-0.17
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-172.9%-129.9%-161.7%-18.9%-67.0%-34.7%-26.4%-19.0%
Free cash flow-5.2 m-3.8 m-3.3 m-2.0 m-2.7 munavailable-2.3 m-1.8 m

The series breaks before 2021: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
unavailable USD
Financial debt
3.5 m USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
1.3 m USD
Total assets
12.8 m USD
Debt / equity
2.63x
Current ratio
0.38x
ROE
-282.4%
ROA
-33.4%
FCF margin
-12.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
8.1 m
2024
10.7 m
2025
14.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
5.2 m
2024
7.0 m
2025
11.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
2.9 m
2024
3.7 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Research & development
2023
115.0 k
2024
132.0 k
2025
128.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-2.8 m
2024
-2.8 m
2025
-3.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
403.0 k
2024
283.0 k
2025
255.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-2.4 m ≈
2024
-2.5 m ≈
2025
-3.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
8.0 k
2024
52.0 k
2025
217.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
—
2024
-2.8 m
2025
-3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
—
2025
-285.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
-2.8 m
2024
-2.8 m
2025
-2.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.21
2024
-0.19
2025
-0.17

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
13.4 m
2024
14.7 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2023verified

Receivables
2023
821.0 k
2024
829.0 k
2025
2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.2 m
2024
1.5 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
4.2 m
2024
2.7 m
2025
4.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
409.0 k
2024
333.0 k
2025
8.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
241.0 k
2024
178.0 k
2025
125.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.8 m
2024
3.3 m
2025
12.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.7 m
2024
1.2 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
99.0 k
2025
3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
124.0 k
2025
470.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.3 m
2024
2.6 m
2025
11.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
2.3 m
2024
2.7 m
2025
11.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.5 m †
2024
578.0 k †
2025
1.3 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-2.9 m
2024
-2.2 m
2025
-1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
—
2024
53.0 k
2025
123.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
—
2024
-2.3 m ≈
2025
-1.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
—
2024
-53.0 k
2025
-1.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
1.8 m
2024
626.0 k
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
32.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
40.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-18.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-18.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-20.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-364.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-43.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
-51.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
-13.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
-3.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
992.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-4.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
15 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
42 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
26 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
31 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
8.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-42.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-46.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.54 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 8.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
8.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-364.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
32.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 11 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 14 Aug 2026
verified 1926derived 147

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Food products (SIC 203x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-17.9%29 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.7%100 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-13.4x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-46.9%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial29/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BARFRESH FOOD GROUP INC. (BRFH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 14.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 32.6%; net margin -17.9%; ROE -364.2%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.7%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -17.9%
  • Interest coverage: -13.4x
  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • FCF yield: -46.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Food products (SIC 203x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 30.8x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−63.1%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.5x
ROE
-364.2%
vertical median 3.9%
below median (−9,366.0%)
Net margin
-17.9%
vertical median 2.5%
below median (−813.5%)
EBIT margin
-18.9%
vertical median 7.8%
below median (−342.3%)
Revenue YoY
32.6%
vertical median 1.1%
above median (+2,904.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.6x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.5%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
KHCKraft Heinz Co30.1 bn—-9.0%-14.0%−3.5%−0% / −28%
SJMJ M SMUCKER Co14.1 bn61.63.9%2.5%+3.7%+27% / +21%
LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.7.8 bn30.814.2%3.8%+2.5%−4% / −43%
MZTIThe Marzetti Company3.1 bn17.716.8%9.1%+1.1%−33% / −32%
BRFHBarfresh Food Group Inc.8.8 m—-364.2%-17.9%+32.6%−83% / −65%
PLAGPlanet Green Holdings Corp.5.2 m—-706.0%-308.0%−35.2%−86% / −89%
FAMIFarmmi, Inc.538.9 k—-36.1%-189.8%−56.4%−94% / −99%
SENEASeneca Foods Corporation——12.2%5.6%+8.2%+21% / +200%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BRFH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Barfresh Food Group makes and distributes ready-to-drink and ready-to-blend frozen beverages and food, mainly for the US school meal market. The company acquired Arps Dairy in October 2025, and revenue reached 14.208 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, but production ramp-up at the existing plant was slower than planned, prompting a revision of 2026 guidance 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company offers a range of products with low calories, no added sugar and real fruit, tailored to federal school programs 1.
    • The Arps Dairy acquisition gives it in-house production capacity and control over quality, reducing dependence on third parties 1.
    • The company has approval to sell into all branches of the US Armed Forces and works with a large number of military bases 1.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has a history of operating losses and cannot guarantee profitability 1.
    • Productivity at the existing facility ramped more slowly than planned, causing a gross loss in the second quarter of 2026 23.
    • Reliance on a small number of outside manufacturers has already disrupted supply, as several manufacturers discontinued production 1.

    Opportunities

    • Completing the new Defiance, Ohio facility could improve production economics if commissioned on time 3.
    • Expanding the juice pop range could reduce sales seasonality and smooth cash flow 1.

    Threats

    • Financing difficulties and dilution from convertible notes could limit the ability to fund investment 12.
    • Regulatory and food safety risks specific to milk processing could lead to fines, recalls or suspension of operations 1.
    • Competitors with greater financial resources and new entrants could reduce the company's share of the school segment 1.

    Risks

    • Plant ramp-uphigh

      Delays and unexpected costs at the existing plant and the new facility could extend losses and postpone reaching the adjusted EBITDA breakeven target 23.

    • Financing and dilutionhigh

      The company needs additional funding to complete the new facility, and terms could be costly or dilutive to shareholders 12.

    • Dependence on outside manufacturersmedium

      The loss of outside manufacturers has already hurt sales, and dependence on a few partners remains a structural risk 1.

    • Milk processing specific risksmedium

      Dependence on raw milk supply, strict FDA and USDA rules and perishability of products could cause production losses 1.

    • Seasonality and working capitallow

      Sales concentrated in certain quarters, tied to the school year, could strain cash flow 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the owned plant reaches planned productivity, the company could turn vertical integration into better margins and more sustainable sales growth 13.
    • Growing demand for low-calorie products within federal school programs could bring more recurring and predictable sales 1.
    • Revised guidance expects revenue to improve sequentially in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 as new school district wins ramp up 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Persistent operating losses and negative adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 could force the company into further dilutive financing 13.
    • If productivity problems at the existing facility continue, the company could lose customers and investor confidence 23.
    • The school market remains seasonal and dependent on public program funding, which could limit growth 1.

    What to watch

    • Productivity trend at the Arps Dairy plant and return to adjusted EBITDA breakevenQ3 2026
    • Commissioning of the new Defiance, Ohio facility2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Barfresh manufactures and distributes frozen smoothies, shakes, frappes and juice pops, ready-to-blend or ready-to-drink, sold in four formats: Twist & Go, bulk Easy Pour, single-serve beverage packs and Pop & Go 1. Since October 2025 it also owns Arps Dairy, an Ohio milk processing facility, giving it in-house manufacturing capacity instead of relying only on third-party manufacturers 1. The company had 32 employees as of April 13, 2026 1.

    Market context

    The company operates in the smoothie market at both the institutional level, through school districts and the USDA national school meal programs, and the consumer level, through restaurant and juice bar chains 1. The school meal programs are the main market, and sales to school districts are seasonal, concentrated in the first and third quarters 1.

    Trends

    • Seasonality of school salesmixed

      As school district sales grow as a share of total, working capital needs peak in the third quarter, which complicates cash flow 1. Developing juice pops could ease seasonality, but market acceptance takes time 1.

    • Consolidation of production in owned plantstailwind

      If the Arps Dairy plant and the new Defiance facility reach planned efficiency, the company could gain control over quality and cost and reduce reliance on outside manufacturers 13.

    • Start-up costs and low productivityheadwind

      The slower ramp-up at the existing plant and unanticipated equipment investment pushed up costs and reduced gross margin in the second quarter of 2026 23.

    • Convertible debt financingmixed

      The 7.5 million USD senior convertible note of March 2026 and government grants can fund investment, but they raise interest costs and could dilute shareholders 23.

    Competitive position

    Competition is significant at the institutional level, where Barfresh faces food and beverage makers with far greater financial resources and distribution reach, and at the consumer level, where specialised juice bars and fast-casual and fast-food chains compete for demand 1. The company does not compete directly at consumer level and aims to supply those chains instead 1.

    • Larger food and beverage manufacturers

      Institutional competitors in the school market with greater financial resources and distribution reach, according to the company 1.

    • Specialised juice bar chains

      Consumer-level competitors selling smoothies, cited as an example in the company's filing 1.

    • Fast-casual and fast-food restaurant chains

      Consumer-level competitors for the same demand that the company's customers pursue 1.

    • New entrants to the smoothie market

      The company warns that new participants could change the competitive landscape 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Barfresh Food Group Inc. · 15 Apr 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Barfresh Food Group Inc. · 14 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Barfresh Food Group Inc. · 14 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.