olivLaw · US equity research
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO
Computer Communications Equipment · SIC 3576 · Vertical: Computer Communications Equipment (SIC 3576)
Cisco designs, sells and supports networking, security, collaboration and observability technologies, with a growing focus on infrastructure for AI. Revenue in fiscal 2026 reached 63.3 billion USD, and demand for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers has made the company a central player in the networking investment cycle.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock was 102.97 USD (+1.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 406.0 bn USD, P/E 30.9 on diluted EPS of 3.33 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.61%, beta 0.97, 52-week range 71.04–130.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 17.3 bn USD (+17.6% YoY), net income of 3.9 bn USD (+51.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.97 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 100.25 – 119.09
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 17.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 109.67 / 101.45
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.72 / -0.96
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.2% | −2.0% | −6.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.4% | −2.2% | −13.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.2% | +4.3% | +4.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +33.7% | +10.6% | +23.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +38.3% | +10.5% | +27.8 pp | −9.0% |
| 3 years | +94.2% | +73.7% | +20.6 pp | +48.3% |
| 5 years | +80.3% | +61.7% | +18.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 25 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.8 bn | 14.0 bn | 14.1 bn | 14.7 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.3 bn | 15.8 bn | 17.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.2 bn |
| Gross profit | 9.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.1 bn |
| Research & development | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Operating income | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn |
| Interest expense | 418.0 m | 404.0 m | 403.0 m | 368.0 m | 350.0 m | 370.0 m | 377.0 m | 373.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.9 bn |
| Income tax | -444.0 m | 459.0 m | 456.0 m | 449.0 m | 531.0 m | 471.0 m | 666.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Net income | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.68 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.64 ≈ | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.97 ≈ |
| Operating cash flow | 3.7 bn | 2.2 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 1.8 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn |
| Capex | 217.0 m | 210.0 m ≈ | 261.0 m ≈ | 217.0 m | 323.0 m | 283.0 m ≈ | 414.0 m ≈ | 390.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn |
| Share repurchases | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 93 percentile of its own 41-quarter history (min 11.6, median 17.8, max 608.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 51.9 bn | 49.3 bn | 49.8 bn | 51.6 bn | 57.0 bn | 53.8 bn | 56.7 bn | 63.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.2% | −5.0% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +10.6% | −5.6% | +5.3% | +11.8% |
| Net income | 11.6 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.6 bn | 11.8 bn | 12.6 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.2 bn | 13.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +10,464.5% | −3.5% | −5.6% | +11.5% | +6.8% | −18.2% | −1.4% | +30.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.61 | 2.64 | 2.50 | 2.82 | 3.07 | 2.54 | 2.55 | 3.33 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +12,950.0% | +1.1% | −5.3% | +12.8% | +8.9% | −17.3% | +0.4% | +30.6% |
| net % | 22.4% | 22.7% | 21.3% | 22.9% | 22.1% | 19.2% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
| Free cash flow | 14.9 bn | 14.7 bn | 14.8 bn | 12.7 bn | 19.0 bn | 10.2 bn | 13.3 bn | 12.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 25 Jul 2026
- Cash
- 7.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 29.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- 22.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 50.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 129.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.59x
- Current ratio
- 0.93x
- ROE
- 27.3%
- ROA
- 10.5%
- FCF margin
- 20.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 49.8 bn | 51.6 bn | 57.0 bn | 53.8 bn | 56.7 bn | 63.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 17.9 bn | 19.3 bn | 21.2 bn | 19.0 bn | 19.9 bn | 22.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 31.9 bn | 32.2 bn | 35.8 bn | 34.8 bn | 36.8 bn | 40.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Research & development | 6.5 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.0 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | 12.8 bn | 14.0 bn | 15.0 bn | 12.2 bn | 11.8 bn | 15.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 800.0 m | 800.0 m | 700.0 m | 700.0 m | 700.0 m | 700.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 13.6 bn ≈ | 14.8 bn ≈ | 15.7 bn ≈ | 12.9 bn ≈ | 12.5 bn ≈ | 16.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 434.0 m | 360.0 m | 427.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 13.3 bn | 14.5 bn | 15.3 bn | 12.2 bn | 11.1 bn | 16.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 920.0 m | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | 10.6 bn | 11.8 bn | 12.6 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.2 bn | 13.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.50 | 2.82 | 3.07 | 2.54 | 2.55 | 3.33 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.54 | 1.58 | 1.62 | 1.66 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 9.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 10.1 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.3 bn | 7.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | 5.8 bn | 6.6 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | 39.1 bn | 36.7 bn | 43.3 bn | 36.9 bn | 35.0 bn | 38.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 38.2 bn | 38.3 bn | 38.5 bn | 58.7 bn | 59.1 bn | 59.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 3.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 11.2 bn | 9.2 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | 97.5 bn | 94.0 bn | 101.9 bn | 124.4 bn | 122.3 bn | 129.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 11.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 9.0 bn | 8.4 bn | 6.7 bn | 19.6 bn | 22.9 bn | 19.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 26.3 bn | 25.6 bn | 31.3 bn | 40.6 bn | 35.1 bn | 41.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 56.2 bn | 54.2 bn | 57.5 bn | 79.0 bn | 75.4 bn | 79.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 41.3 bn † | 39.8 bn † | 44.4 bn † | 45.5 bn † | 46.8 bn † | 50.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 15.5 bn | 13.2 bn | 19.9 bn | 10.9 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | 692.0 m | 477.0 m | 849.0 m | 670.0 m | 905.0 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 14.8 bn ≈ | 12.7 bn ≈ | 19.0 bn ≈ | 10.2 bn ≈ | 13.3 bn ≈ | 12.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.3 bn | 1.6 bn | -5.1 bn | -20.5 bn | 1.7 bn | -3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -12.1 bn | -16.0 bn | -11.6 bn | 6.8 bn | -15.8 bn | -12.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 6.2 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.9 bn | 7.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 44 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 406.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation27
- Returns85
- Quality75
- Balance sheet31
- Growth32
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.17 – 107.81 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)41.63 – 67.51 (Mid 51.61)WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 14.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 34.4%
- Peers: EV/Sales1.17 – 57.34 (Mid 21.36)7 companies used · median multiple 1.7x · quartiles 0.4x – 3.9xATEN, BOSC, DGII, EXTR, FOXX, HUBC, LTRX
- Peers: EV/EBITDA61.15 – 107.81 (Mid 104.83)3 companies used · median multiple 27.1x · quartiles 16.4x – 27.8xATEN, BOSC, DGII
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 44/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 64.5% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 24.3% | 87 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 20.2% | 81 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.6% | 14 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 11.8% | 67 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 54 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 6.8x | 0 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.1% | 63 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.1% | 85 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns85/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. (CSCO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-25.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 63.3 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 11.8%; net margin 21.0%; ROE 27.3%; net debt/EBITDA 1.4x.
The estimated value range is 41.63–67.51 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 51.61 USD, the price of 102.97 USD leaves a potential of -49.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -99.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 24.3%
- FCF margin: 20.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 3.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.6%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- EV/Sales: 6.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Computer Communications Equipment (SIC 3576) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | 406.0 bn | 30.9 | 27.3% | 21.0% | +11.8% | +38% / +94% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | 214.3 bn | 53.6 | 31.5% | 38.4% | +28.6% | +30% / +209% |
| FFIVF5, Inc. | 18.8 bn | 26.4 | 19.8% | 22.0% | +9.7% | +38% / +93% |
| EXTRExtreme Networks, Inc. | 3.0 bn | 58.0 | 67.1% | 4.0% | +12.6% | +31% / +42% |
| DGIIDigi International Inc. | 2.8 bn | 57.5 | 7.5% | 9.6% | +1.5% | +74% / +208% |
| ATENA10 Networks, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 40.0 | 19.4% | 13.9% | +11.0% | +38% / +91% |
| NTGRNETGEAR, Inc. | 606.6 m | — | -5.3% | -3.7% | +3.8% | −16% / +64% |
| ALLTAllot Ltd. | 421.3 m | 108.3 | 4.5% | 3.6% | +10.6% | −10% / +541% |
| LTRXLantronix, Inc. | 263.9 m | — | -4.3% | -3.5% | −1.6% | +10% / 0% |
| SILCSilicom Ltd. | 181.2 m | — | -9.4% | -18.5% | +6.6% | +112% / +95% |
| BOSCBos Better Online Solutions Ltd | 29.8 m | 7.4 | 14.4% | 7.1% | +26.6% | −9% / +48% |
| CIITTianci International, Inc. | 16.5 m | — | -59.1% | -14.7% | +7.7% | −93% / −96% |
| FOXXFoxx Development Holdings Inc. | 13.3 m | — | — | -100.2% | −20.2% | −58% / −83% |
| INTZIntrusion Inc. | 11.9 m | — | -140.9% | -194.0% | +21.6% | −66% / −93% |
| WLDSWearable Devices Ltd. | 4.2 m | — | -72.3% | -1,253.0% | +23.9% | −92% / −100% |
| HUBCHUB Cyber Security Ltd. | 3.4 m | — | — | -134.5% | −30.7% | −100% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CSCO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 60.93 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 107.77 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 162.40 Total return 60% · Per year 60% |
| 3 years | 58.04 Total return -40% · Per year -16% | 115.60 Total return 18% · Per year 6% | 191.43 Total return 93% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 55.28 Total return -40% · Per year -10% | 124.01 Total return 29% · Per year 5% | 225.65 Total return 131% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 28.90
- Net margin± 20.23
- Annual revenue growth± 16.76
- Annual dilution± 1.70
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Cisco designs, sells and supports networking, security, collaboration and observability technologies, with a growing focus on infrastructure for AI. Revenue in fiscal 2026 reached 63.3 billion USD, and demand for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers has made the company a central player in the networking investment cycle.
SWOT
Strengths
- The broad portfolio combining hardware, software and services, and its position as a supplier for AI infrastructure, are strengths the company highlights 1.
- Strong growth in orders and networking revenue points to solid demand and good execution 2.
- Operating discipline and rising operating margins support the capacity to invest and return capital to shareholders 2.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Infrastructure for AI and inference could expand demand from hyperscalers and enterprises 1.
- Integrating security into networking and observability platforms could create more valuable offers for customers 1.
- AI-powered services delivered through Cisco IQ could shift support from reactive to predictive operations 1.
Risks
- Hyperscaler customer concentrationhigh
A significant part of AI infrastructure demand comes from a small number of large customers, and lower orders from them could affect results 1.
- Dependence on the supply chainhigh
Contract manufacturers and component suppliers may face financial or capacity problems, which could delay deliveries and affect margins 1.
- Memory costsmedium
Higher memory component costs have pressured product gross margins and could continue to do so 1.
- Quarterly revenue volatilitymedium
Large orders and the timing of their revenue recognition make quarterly revenue difficult to forecast 1.
- Trade policy and geopoliticsmedium
Tariffs, trade barriers and tensions in the Middle East and around China and Taiwan could disrupt operations and demand 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong order growth for AI infrastructure and expanding operating margins suggest the business model could hold up in coming years, if the company's guidance is confirmed 2.
- The combination of networking, security and observability could make Cisco a hard-to-replace platform for large customers, supporting recurring revenue 1.
- A solid balance sheet and an active capital return policy give the company flexibility during investment periods 2.
What would break the thesis
- If hyperscaler AI investment slows, revenue and orders could fall quickly and be hard to offset from other segments 1.
- Pressure on product margins from product mix and component costs could persist if prices cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Competition in networking and security, including from specialized players, could limit growth and pricing power 1.
What to watch
- Development of AI infrastructure revenue against the company's estimateQ1 2027
- Product gross margins and the effect of memory costsQ1 2027
- Delivery against the fiscal 2027 revenue guidance2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Cisco organizes its business into three geographic segments (Americas, EMEA and APJC) and four product and technology categories: networking, security, collaboration and observability 1. The portfolio includes switches, routers, wireless solutions, software, SaaS offerings, and technical and professional services, increasingly integrated into one platform 1. Customers include businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments, service providers and hyperscalers 1.
The strategy targets three customer priorities: modern infrastructure, protection against cyber threats, and harnessing AI and data 1. The One Cisco concept groups outcomes for customers into AI-ready data centers, future-proofed workplaces and digital resilience 1.
Cisco emphasizes its Cisco Silicon One architecture, which underpins many of its high-performance systems, and the integration of security into the network through offerings such as Hypershield and AI Defense 1. On the services side, Cisco IQ is the main delivery vehicle for support and professional services, combining AI and automation 1.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Investment in AI infrastructuretailwind
Traffic generated by AI agents and inference is changing network design, and customers are investing in resilient and energy-efficient infrastructure 1. If this demand persists, it could support growth in the networking segment 2.
- More sophisticated cyber threatstailwind
Growth in modern applications and advanced attacks makes security a top priority for customers, which could create demand for Cisco security platforms 1.
- Memory and component costsheadwind
Memory constraints and costs reduced product gross margin in fiscal 2026, and the supply chain remains exposed to delays 1.
- Macroeconomic and trade uncertaintymixed
Tariffs, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy could slow customer IT spending, which could affect revenue in some segments 1.
Competitive position
The communications and networking market is competitive, and pricing and business models change rapidly with technological innovation 1. Consolidation among competitors and customers can shift the balance of forces in the industry 1.
Cisco competes by integrating networking with security and observability, and it cites its differentiation in secure networking as an advantage 2. Competitive pressure is most visible in pricing and in security products 1.
- Juniper Networks
Competitor in routing and networking for service providers and enterprises, cited in the context of competitive pressure in the analyzed sources.
- Arista Networks
Competitor in data center switching and AI infrastructure, an area where Cisco focuses its recent growth.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Competitor in enterprise network and data center infrastructure, with integrated compute and networking offerings.
- Palo Alto Networks
Competitor in network security and platform-style solutions, relevant to Cisco's security segment.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Inteligența artificială a redus timpul între descoperirea vulnerabilităților și atacurile cibernetice de la un an la o zi. Cum se pot proteja firmele (analiză)StartupCafe.ro · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- How Cisco defends at machine speed with OpenAIOpenAI Blog · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- The AI trade's trick-or-treat earnings seasonAxios · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Backbone of a beast – charting Nvidia's rise to networking titanThe Register · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- AI Security Agents Compared: Claude, Codex, Mantis, CloudflareMarkTechPost (Asia AI) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cisco gives engineer unlimited AI tokens to rewrite 98% of the company's codeHacker News · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cisco gives engineer unlimited AI tokens to rewrite legacy codeHacker News · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- CISA Adds Actively Exploited GitLab RCE and Cisco Firewall DoS Flaws to KEVThe Hacker News · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Hackers exploit Cisco SD-WAN flaw to deploy custom KeyDrift malwareBleepingComputer · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cisco Open Sources Quarry to Catch AI Agent Attacks Hidden in Harmless StepsSecurityWeek · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- New Cisco firewall zero-day exploited to crash SSL VPN devicesBleepingComputer · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cisco Patches Actively Exploited ASA and FTD VPN Flaw That Can Crash FirewallsThe Hacker News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cisco SD-WAN Zero-Day Exploitation Tied to Volt Typhoon’s ‘Silent Train’ NetworkSecurityWeek · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Attackers Exploit Second Cisco Firewall VPN Zero-Day Since AugustSecurityWeek · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Hackers Exploited Cisco SD-WAN Flaw to Plant Malware Built to Steal Encryption KeysThe Hacker News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- CNBC TEC Summit live updates: Cisco, Levi's executives discuss AI risks and costsCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cisco open sources tool for detecting AI agents on hacking spreesThe Register · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Фондовые индексы США выросли вслед за акциями ИИ-компанийInterfax Russia (RU) · 27 Oct 2026 · RU
- Cisco Patches 34 Vulnerabilities Across Multiple ProductsSecurityWeek · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- IT department and auditors at major pharmacy chain got into a rip-roaring fight about using 'password' on Cisco firewallThe Register · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Proxy statement29 Oct 2026
- Current report09 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Annual report02 Sept 2026
- Current report12 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report19 May 2026
- Current report13 May 2026Results of operations · Exit or disposal costs · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report06 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report17 Feb 2026
- Current report11 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-07-25 · SEC / Cisco Systems, Inc. · 02 Sept 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Cisco Systems, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.