olivLaw · US equity research
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. KOF
Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters · SIC 2086 · Vertical: Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters (SIC 2086)
Coca-Cola FEMSA is the largest franchise bottler of Coca-Cola trademark products in the world by sales volume, operating in Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. In 2025 total revenues rose 4.3% to 291746 million Mexican pesos even as volume fell 1.8%, the company relying on price increases and revenue management.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF) stock was 116.40 USD (−0.02% on the day), with P/E 82.6 on diluted EPS of 1.41 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.34, 52-week range 86.11–119.96 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 110.81 – 121.07
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.54 · band width 8.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 112.59 / 107.29
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.27 / 1.47
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.6% | −1.1% | +8.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.5% | −0.5% | +8.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.8% | +4.4% | +4.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.9% | +12.3% | +10.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +35.7% | +13.5% | +22.2 pp | +18.3% |
| 3 years | +42.7% | +76.4% | −33.7 pp | +2.6% |
| 5 years | +113.0% | +63.7% | +49.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 0.0, median 57.7, max 81.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ⚠ 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.4 bn | 9.3 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.2 bn | 189.4 bn | 220.3 bn | 236.6 bn | 279.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −94.2% | −10.5% | +11.0% | −10.5% | — | +16.3% | +7.4% | +18.2% |
| Net income | -652.0 m | 768.0 m | 670.0 m | 521.0 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −12.8% | −22.2% | — | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.31 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | 930,000.00 | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | — | −100.0% | +2.7% | +21.6% |
| net % | -6.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
The series breaks before 2021: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- unavailable USD
- Financial debt
- 71.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- unavailable USD
- Total assets
- unavailable USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.3 bn | 9.2 bn | 189.4 bn | 220.3 bn | 236.6 bn | 279.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.7 bn | 5.1 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Gross profit | 4.6 bn | 4.2 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 10.6 bn | 10.6 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.5 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -969.0 m | -794.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Income tax | 299.0 m | 273.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Net income | 670.0 m | 521.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | 930,000.00 | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.41 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 2.2 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Receivables | 821.0 m | 579.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Inventories | 559.0 m | 489.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Current assets | 3.0 bn | 3.6 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Goodwill | 107.1 bn | 100.1 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Total assets | 13.7 bn | 13.2 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Accounts payable | 548.0 m | 503.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Short-term debt | 882.0 m | 1.6 bn | 645.0 m | 0 | 88.0 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 58.5 bn | 82.5 bn | 83.3 bn | 70.1 bn | 65.1 bn | 70.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Equity | 6.9 bn | 6.2 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | 548.0 m | 485.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
| Dividends paid | 394.0 m | 517.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2021verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.03 – 30.09 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E16.03 – 30.09 (Mid 28.53)3 companies used · median multiple 20.2x · quartiles 11.4x – 21.3xCOKE, FIZZ, MNST
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -98.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 74 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 82.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial74/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
COCA COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV (KOF). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 279.8 bn USD in 2024; YoY growth 18.2%.
The estimated value range is 16.03–30.09 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 28.53 USD, the price of 116.40 USD leaves a potential of -75.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -307.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.9%
- Current ratio: 1.7x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -98.9%
- P/E (TTM): 82.6x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters (SIC 2086) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corp | 47.8 bn | 22.4 | 25.7% | 23.1% | +10.7% | +30% / +77% |
| CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc. | 7.8 bn | 104.3 | 10.5% | 4.2% | +85.5% | −25% / −38% |
| FIZZNational Beverage Corp. | 3.5 bn | 20.2 | 40.1% | 14.8% | −1.7% | +11% / −21% |
| COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 2.5 | 90.0% | 7.5% | +4.8% | +25% / +178% |
| REEDReed's, Inc. | 12.0 m | — | -14,800.0% | -63.5% | −10.2% | −80% / −92% |
| FMXMexican Economic Development, Inc. | — | — | 12.0% | 5.1% | −9.9% | +36% / +3% |
| KOFCoca Cola Femsa Sab De Cv | — | 82.6 | — | — | +18.2% | +36% / +43% |
| ZVIAZevia PBC | — | — | -18.0% | -4.8% | +4.0% | −55% / −44% |
| CCEPCOCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc | — | — | 23.8% | 9.3% | +2.3% | +26% / +91% |
| AKO-AAndina Bottling Co Inc | — | — | 25.2% | 8.0% | +3.7% | +18% / +105% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KOF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026), 6-K (27 Jul 2026), 6-K (12 Jun 2026), 6-K (01 Jun 2026).
In brief
Coca-Cola FEMSA is the largest franchise bottler of Coca-Cola trademark products in the world by sales volume, operating in Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. In 2025 total revenues rose 4.3% to 291746 million Mexican pesos even as volume fell 1.8%, the company relying on price increases and revenue management.
SWOT
Strengths
- Market leadership in most of its operating countries, backed by a large network of bottling plants and distribution centers.
- A strong portfolio built on the Coca-Cola brand and its reduced- and no-sugar variants.
- An ability to offset volume declines through revenue management and pricing strategy.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on Mexico and Brazil, which together generate most of its revenues.
- Volume declines in Mexico, its main market, particularly in carbonated soft drinks.
- Higher fixed costs, including labor, which weigh on gross margin.
Opportunities
- Growth in non-carbonated, water and reduced-sugar beverage categories.
- Expansion of the Juntos+ commercial platform and AI-based sales tools.
- Strategic acquisitions that could add territories or product categories.
Threats
- Economic slowdown and high inflation in the region could weaken demand.
- Exchange rate swings against the US dollar affect costs and reported results.
- Regulatory pressure on advertising and product labeling could limit sales.
Risks
- Volume decline in Mexicohigh
Sales volume in Mexico fell in 2025, and if this trend continues revenues could be affected even with higher prices 1.
- Macroeconomic instabilityhigh
Economic slowdown and inflation in the countries where the company operates could reduce demand and affect profitability 1.
- Currency translation effectsmedium
Depreciation of local currencies against the peso or dollar could change consolidated results reported in Mexican pesos 1.
- Cost of financingmedium
Rising interest rates could increase the cost of floating-rate debt and US dollar bonds 1.
- Dependence on The Coca-Cola Companymedium
The business depends on bottler agreements with The Coca-Cola Company, and changes in those relationships could influence cost structure and portfolio 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Being the largest franchise bottler of Coca-Cola products in the world gives a solid revenue base and operating scale.
- The ability to raise prices and manage revenue has supported revenue growth even as volumes declined.
- Expansion into non-carbonated beverages and water could support long-term growth.
What would break the thesis
- Volume declines in Mexico and pressure from fixed costs could limit profitability growth.
- Exposure to volatile Latin American economies and inflation in Argentina adds uncertainty to results.
- If borrowing costs rise, interest expense could reduce the net margin.
What to watch
- Volume trend in MexicoQ1 2027
- Gross margin and labor cost effects2027
- Exchange rate moves in Brazil and Argentina2027
- Company guidance on revenue and volume growthnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026), 6-K (27 Jul 2026), 6-K (12 Jun 2026), 6-K (01 Jun 2026).
The business
The company produces, distributes and sells mainly The Coca-Cola Company trademark portfolio, including sparkling beverages, waters, non-carbonated beverages and certain alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, plus other consumer products under distribution agreements. It operates 55 bottling plants and 256 distribution centers, with more than 90200 employees. Coca-Cola and its reduced- or no-sugar line accounted for 60.3% of total sales volume in 2025 1.
Its long-term strategy rests on six priorities: growing the core, being the preferred commercial platform through Juntos+, strategic M&A, de-bottlenecking infrastructure and digitizing the enterprise, a customer-centric culture, and a sustainable future 1. These priorities aim to offset volume declines in a difficult regional economic environment.
Segments
Mexico and Central America
The segment generated revenues of 169641 million pesos in 2025, up 1.6%, mainly from revenue management, partly offset by volume decline 1. Volume fell 4.1% to 2391.7 million unit cases, driven by Mexico, where volume dropped 5.2% due to macroeconomic deceleration and temporary negative brand sentiment 1.
Market context
Markets are shaped by the US economy, interest rates, inflation and local exchange rates, with Mexico and Brazil together accounting for 74.9% of revenues 1. Argentina is treated as a hyperinflationary economy, changing how its results are reported 1. The 6.0% rise in average price per unit case shows the company's ability to offset volume pressure 1.
Demand for carbonated soft drinks in Mexico weakened in 2025, while still beverages and bottled water performed better, indicating a shift in consumer preferences 1. Input costs such as PET resin and aluminum remain sensitive to the US dollar 1.
Trends
- Revenue managementmixed
Price increases supported revenues even as volumes declined, though if consumer pressure intensifies this approach could become harder to sustain 1.
- Shifting consumer preferencestailwind
Growth in non-carbonated categories such as still beverages and bottled water suggests the portfolio is adapting to consumer demand 1.
- Regional cost and inflation pressureheadwind
Higher labor and fixed costs have pressed gross margin, and inflation effects in hyperinflationary economies add volatility to results 1.
- Cost of dollar financingheadwind
The 2035 US dollar bond issuance raised interest expense, and if interest rates rise further the cost of floating-rate funding could increase 1.
Competitive position
As a franchise bottler the company is the sole bottler of Coca-Cola trademark products in its territories, but it competes with other beverage brands, water producers and energy and sports drink makers for the same retail shelf and distribution channels 1. The filing describes it as the largest in the system by volume but does not name direct rivals.
Diversification into Monster, Heineken-owned beers in some markets and other alcoholic beverages helps the company broaden its offering against rivals in adjacent categories 1.
- The Coca-Cola CompanyKO
Owner of the trademarks the company bottles and distributes, acting as concentrate supplier and strategic partner.
- FEMSA (majority shareholder)
Parent company that also runs retail through OXXO, shaping distribution dynamics in the region.
- Regional water and beverage producers
Local companies competing in bottled water and non-carbonated beverages, where the company is seeking growth.
- Energy and sports drink brands
Rivals in the energy and sports drink segments, where the company distributes the Monster brand.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Apr 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)16 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. · 16 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.