olivLaw · US equity research
MGM Resorts International MGM
Hotels & Motels · SIC 7011 · Vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)
MGM Resorts International operates casinos, hotels and entertainment in Las Vegas, across US regional markets, in Macau, and through a digital unit for online betting and iGaming. The company reported net revenues of 17.5 billion USD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 consolidated revenue reached a record for that quarter.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MGM Resorts International (MGM) stock was 32.82 USD (+5.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.3 bn USD, P/E 12.7 on diluted EPS of 2.58 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.03%, beta 1.23, 52-week range 27.27–50.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 4.2 bn USD (−0.9% YoY), net income of -17.1 m USD, diluted EPS -0.07 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.93 – 31.65
- above the upper band · %B 1.25 · band width 16.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 34.08 / 39.00
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.80 / -1.60
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.8% | −1.1% | +9.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.3% | −0.5% | −25.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.1% | +4.4% | −18.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.1% | +12.3% | −22.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +3.0% | +13.5% | −10.6 pp | +9.5% |
| 3 years | −14.0% | +76.4% | −90.4 pp | +9.3% |
| 5 years | −34.8% | +63.7% | −98.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.2 bn |
| SG&A | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Operating income | 291.6 m | 385.1 m | 404.6 m | -112.9 m | 325.0 m | 301.2 m | 503.6 m | 118.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 209.2 m | 236.4 m | 242.0 m | 260.7 m | 278.7 m | 263.7 m | 282.3 m | 276.4 m |
| Interest expense | 108.6 m | 107.3 m | 105.6 m | 102.3 m | 103.9 m | 100.7 m | 102.1 m | 102.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 205.7 m | 266.8 m | 133.8 m | -219.6 m | 99.8 m | 202.2 m | 413.5 m | 21.9 m |
| Income tax | -32.2 m | 40.1 m | 15.7 m | -12.9 m | -283.0 m | 27.5 m | 90.7 m | -17.3 m |
| Net income | 157.4 m | 148.6 m | 49.0 m | -285.3 m | 293.6 m | 125.1 m | 292.4 m | -17.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.53 ≈ | 0.51 | 0.18 | -1.05 | 1.06 ≈ | 0.48 | 1.11 | -0.07 |
| Operating cash flow | 671.6 m | 547.1 m | 645.9 m ≈ | 681.4 m ≈ | 655.0 m | 567.8 m | 558.8 m ≈ | 532.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 404.0 m | 228.0 m | 268.4 m ≈ | 276.0 m ≈ | 296.5 m | 154.7 m | 241.4 m ≈ | 221.7 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 119.8 m | 489.3 m | 227.9 m ≈ | 12.0 k ≈ | 511.1 m | 88.9 m | 173.6 m ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 42 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 2.1, median 14.0, max 209.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.8 bn | 12.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 9.7 bn | 13.1 bn | 16.2 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +8.9% | +9.7% | −60.0% | +87.5% | +35.6% | +23.1% | +6.7% | +1.7% |
| Net income | 466.8 m | 2.0 bn | -1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 746.6 m | 205.9 m |
| Net income YoY | −76.1% | +339.0% | −150.4% | unavailable | +17.4% | −22.5% | −34.6% | −72.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.81 | 3.88 | -2.02 | 2.41 | 3.49 | 3.19 | 2.40 | 0.76 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −75.7% | +379.0% | −152.1% | unavailable | +44.8% | −8.6% | −24.8% | −68.3% |
| net % | 4.0% | 15.9% | -20.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Free cash flow | 235.7 m | 1.1 bn | -1.8 bn | 882.7 m | 991.4 m | 1.8 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 6.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 41.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.91x
- Current ratio
- 1.23x
- ROE
- 5.9%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- FCF margin
- 8.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.2 bn | 9.7 bn | 13.1 bn | 16.2 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -642.4 m | 2.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 814.1 m | 831.1 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 568.1 m ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 676.4 m | 799.6 m | 595.0 m | 460.3 m | 443.2 m | 419.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 903.8 m | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 280.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -191.6 m | 253.4 m | 697.1 m | 157.8 m | 52.5 m | -240.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 746.6 m | 205.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.02 | 2.41 | 3.49 | 3.19 | 2.40 | 0.76 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 494.2 m | 487.4 m | 413.0 m | 358.6 m | 310.2 m | 277.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.01 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 316.5 m | 583.9 m | 852.1 m | 929.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 88.3 m | 96.4 m | 126.1 m | 141.7 m | 140.6 m | 124.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 8.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 14.6 bn | 14.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.2 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 2.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 36.5 bn | 40.9 bn | 45.7 bn | 42.4 bn | 42.2 bn | 41.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 142.5 m | 286.2 m | 369.8 m | 461.7 m | 412.7 m | 421.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 12.4 bn | 11.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | — | — | 38.0 bn | 38.5 bn | 38.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.2 bn | 11.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 270.6 m | 490.7 m | 765.1 m | 931.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.8 bn ≈ | 882.7 m ≈ | 991.4 m ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | -714.2 m | -1.3 bn | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.1 bn | -2.8 bn | -3.0 bn | -5.0 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 77.6 m | 4.8 m | 4.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 353.7 m | 1.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation96
- Returns100
- Quality71
- Balance sheet51
- Growth42
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.13 – 218.59 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)116.77 – 218.59 (Mid 152.68)WACC 7.6% · starting FCFF 1.7 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 79%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA58.99 – 139.81 (Mid 91.80)14 companies used · median multiple 11.3x · quartiles 7.7x – 16.4xBYD, CHH, CNTY, CZR, FLL, HLT, IHG, LVS, MLCO, PK, TNL, WH, WYNN, XHR
- Peers: P/E51.57 – 105.48 (Mid 76.13)14 companies used · median multiple 29.5x · quartiles 20.0x – 40.8xATAT, BYD, CHH, HLT, IHG, LVS, MAR, MCRI, MLCO, RRR, SHO, TNL, WH, WYNN
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.13 – 0.18 (Mid 0.15)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.9% | 73 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.9% | 40 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 201.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.1% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -39.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 74 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 24 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 36 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.7x | 94 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.9x | 94 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 16.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation96/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MGM Resorts International (MGM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.7%; net margin 3.9%; ROE 26.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.4x.
The estimated value range is 55.28–122.65 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 83.97 USD, the price of 32.82 USD leaves a potential of 155.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 60.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 14.9%
- FCF conversion: 201.7%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.4x
- P/E (TTM): 12.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.9x
- FCF yield: 16.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.3%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -39.8%
- Interest coverage: 3.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTHTH World Group Ltd | 154.3 bn | 218.4 | 41.5% | 20.1% | +10.5% | +9% / +37% |
| MARMarriott International Inc | 109.4 bn | 42.4 | — | 9.7% | +4.3% | +39% / +110% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 83.8 bn | 50.8 | — | 13.4% | +7.7% | +32% / +125% |
| IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 29.0 bn | 36.2 | — | 14.6% | +5.4% | +31% / +124% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | 25.5 bn | 16.7 | 262.8% | 11.8% | +15.2% | −40% / −12% |
| ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | 14.5 bn | 63.7 | 50.5% | 16.6% | +41.0% | −9% / +97% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | 8.5 bn | 19.7 | — | 6.1% | +0.1% | −36% / −2% |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | 8.3 bn | 12.7 | 26.8% | 3.9% | +1.7% | +3% / −14% |
| CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc. | 6.0 bn | — | -15.1% | -4.5% | +2.1% | +26% / −34% |
| WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 29.8 | 38.2% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +10% / +4% |
| MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 5.7 bn | 30.6 | — | 3.6% | +11.3% | −48% / −33% |
| BYDBoyd Gaming Corp | 5.5 bn | 11.7 | 19.6% | 12.3% | +4.1% | −7% / +32% |
| CHHChoice Hotels International Inc | 5.4 bn | 26.7 | 146.5% | 12.7% | +0.8% | +32% / +9% |
| TNLTravel & Leisure Co. | 4.7 bn | 20.7 | — | 5.7% | +4.1% | +13% / +118% |
| PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -5.0% | -6.4% | −2.2% | +57% / +14% |
| SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 2.8% | 5.3% | +6.0% | +39% / +32% |
| PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc. | 2.3 bn | — | -37.4% | -12.7% | +5.8% | +18% / −29% |
| XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 628.9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +3.8% | +57% / +79% |
| MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 17.9 | 20.4% | 20.4% | +4.4% | +17% / +80% |
| BALYBally’s Corporation | 680.3 m | — | — | — | +0.1% | −23% / unavailable |
| FLLFull House Resorts Inc | 29.1 m | — | -936.4% | -12.1% | +3.5% | −70% / −84% |
| CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | 16.9 m | — | — | -9.6% | −0.5% | −61% / −86% |
| MRNOMurano Global Investments Plc | — | — | -54.7% | -488.8% | +154.6% | −88% / −98% |
| HHyatt Hotels Corporation | — | 98.6 | 5.6% | 2.6% | +6.8% | +16% / +66% |
| GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. | — | — | 11.2% | 15.2% | −14.7% | −50% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MGM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 21.77 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 38.39 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 57.70 Total return 76% · Per year 76% |
| 3 years | 23.59 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 46.57 Total return 42% · Per year 12% | 76.48 Total return 133% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 25.56 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 56.49 Total return 72% · Per year 11% | 101.39 Total return 209% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 11.64
- Net margin± 8.15
- Annual revenue growth± 6.35
- Annual dilution± 0.68
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
MGM Resorts International operates casinos, hotels and entertainment in Las Vegas, across US regional markets, in Macau, and through a digital unit for online betting and iGaming. The company reported net revenues of 17.5 billion USD in 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 consolidated revenue reached a record for that quarter 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified portfolio of luxury resorts in Las Vegas, US regions and Macau, with a globally recognised brand.
- The MGM Rewards loyalty program and data analytics allow offers to be personalised for guests.
- The stake in BetMGM and the digital divisions give a position in US and European online betting.
Weaknesses
- Consolidated debt and lease obligations absorb a significant part of cash flow.
- A large concentration of resorts on the Las Vegas Strip makes the company vulnerable to local demand declines.
- The digital division still posts segment losses, which limits overall margins.
Opportunities
- The Osaka resort could open a new international market after 2030.
- Expanding online betting into more US states could increase digital revenue.
- The Dubai market, where the company has a non-gaming management agreement, could become a growth area if gaming is opened up.
Threats
- Growing competition from new resorts in Las Vegas and other travel destinations.
- Changes to gaming taxes in the jurisdictions where the company operates.
- Geopolitical risks and declines in air travel that could reduce demand.
Risks
- Debt and lease obligationshigh
The company carries large debt and fixed rent payments, which could limit financial flexibility if revenues fall.
- Concentration on the Las Vegas Striphigh
Many resorts in one area expose the company to local risks greater than those of a geographically diversified operator.
- Losses in the digital divisionmedium
If digital division losses persist, group profitability could be affected.
- Regulation and taxesmedium
Higher gaming taxes or changes to Macau concessions could reduce results.
- Energy and labour costslow
Sensitivity to energy prices and a large unionised workforce could pressure operating margins.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Consolidated revenue also rose in the second quarter of 2026, and the digital and MGM China divisions show solid growth.
- A focus on luxury resorts and loyalty programs could support demand even in a more difficult environment.
- Asset sales and the share repurchase programme show disciplined capital allocation.
What would break the thesis
- High debt and fixed rents remain a burden, especially if Las Vegas revenues do not recover.
- The profitability of the digital division has not yet been proven, and losses could persist.
- Dependence on Macau and Asian demand exposes the company to geopolitical and regulatory shocks.
What to watch
- Completion and effects of the MGM Northfield Park sale on regional revenuesQ3 2026
- Trajectory of MGM Digital revenue and segment lossesQ3 2026
- Las Vegas visitor volume and room rate trends2027
- Progress of the MGM Osaka project and opening timelinenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
MGM Resorts International is a Delaware holding company that, through subsidiaries, runs a global gaming and entertainment business with hotels, casinos, conference spaces, shows and restaurants 1. As of 31 December 2025 it operates 16 domestic casinos and two in Macau through MGM China, where it holds about a 56% controlling interest 1. The company has reduced its owned real estate through monetization transactions and concentrates capital on integrated resorts, online gaming and the Osaka project 1.
Most revenue is cash-based, and the casinos operate around the clock, so results are not seasonal, though convention timing, Far East baccarat volumes and holidays can affect interim periods 1. The MGM Rewards loyalty program is a central tool for customer retention 1. The long-term strategy targets profitability of integrated resorts in the US and Macau and expansion of online gaming 1.
In 2026 the company completed the sale of MGM Northfield Park for 546 million USD and continued developing the Osaka resort, with opening on track for 2030 23. These moves point to more capital-efficient operations and digital growth 3.
Segments
Market context
The gaming and hospitality market is fragmented and competitive, with rivals including other resorts in the same regions, state lotteries and online gaming operators 1. Macau visitor arrivals rose 15% in 2025 1, while Las Vegas visitor volume fell 8% in the same year 1.
US online sports betting and iGaming grow through BetMGM North America Venture, in which the company holds 50% 1. International digital markets offer further growth, but competition from online operators is intense 12.
Trends
- Macau visitation recoverytailwind
Rising visitor arrivals in Macau support MGM China and main-floor table games 1. If this trend continues, the division's results could remain solid 1.
- Lower Las Vegas visitationheadwind
Lower visitor volume in Las Vegas weighed on room and food and beverage revenue 1. Pressure on room rates could persist if demand stays weak 1.
- Digital and online betting growthmixed
The MGM Digital division and BetMGM are growing quickly, with digital revenue up 20% in the second quarter of 2026 3. Segment losses show profitability has not yet arrived 3.
- Capital costs and debtheadwind
Consolidated debt of about 6.3 billion USD and large rent obligations require cash for debt service 1. Higher interest rates could reduce available cash flow 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with other Las Vegas casinos, US regional operators, Asian gaming centres and online operators 1. Competition is also rising from new resorts and from gaming expansion outside Nevada 1.
In online gaming the main competitors are other international online gaming companies and integrated resorts offering entertainment 1. The sources do not name further US-listed peers beyond those cited here 1.
- Caesars EntertainmentCZR
Direct rival in integrated resorts and US betting operations, cited in the general industry competition context.
- Wynn ResortsWYNN
Competitor in Macau and luxury resorts, whose results depend on the same Asian market.
- Las Vegas SandsLVS
Major competitor in Macau and in the Asian integrated resort segment.
- Entain
Partner in BetMGM North America Venture and a global online gaming operator, named in company sources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- MGM Resorts Sees Lost Pricing Power in Las Vegas as Travel Costs BiteSkift · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- ‘We’re Done’: MGM Resorts Ends Merger Talks With Barry Diller’s People Inc.Skift · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- MGM Resorts shares sink 9% after Barry Diller's People Inc. rescinds takeover offerCNBC — Top News · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Barry Diller Withdraws MGM Resorts Bid Worth $18 BillionSkift · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Acquisition Premium Injects Immediate Boost into MGM Resorts International (MGM) SharesYahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- MGM Resorts Engaged in Deal Talks With Diller, WSJ SaysBloomberg Markets · 10 Jul 2026 · EN
- Diller Bids For Rest of MGM Resorts After Overhauling IACBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
- Media mogul Barry Diller’s People offers to buy MGM Resorts for over $18bnThe Guardian World · 01 Jun 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Apr 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MGM Resorts International · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / MGM Resorts International · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MGM Resorts International · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.